Fire Dusty Baker!

Dusty does it again

2011-08-12T15:54:00.002-04:00

Now Janish is batting 2nd. Again I ask, WHY IS YOUR WORST HITTER BATTING 2ND? Why not have the pitcher bat 3rd? Send Votto to 9th? Leave the 4th spot open just to throw the other team off. I hate Dusty and can't wait until he is gone.

That's It! I can't take it!

2011-07-26T15:53:00.002-04:00

It has been a long time since I have posted. Since we last spoke, the Reds went on a tear, won the division, and have remained a competing club despite the idiot in the dugout. I didn't want to jinx what was happening so I stayed away but I can't take it anymore. Something must be said.

PLAYERS SHOULD HIT ACCORDING TO THEIR SKILL, NOT THEIR POSITION!!!

Yeah, that's 3 exclamation points. Dusty believes that a lineup should start with CF-SS, no matter who actually plays there. In previous years, it led me to hardcore drinking thanks to Corey Patterson and Wily Taveras occupying the lead off hole despite their inability to actually get on base. This is also his reasoning for batting Edgar Renteria 2nd despite his OPS+ of 63, a slugging percentage of .285, and 6 extra base-hits in 158 AB's. Ideally, your second batter is a doubles and walk machine who puts runners in scoring position for the heart of the order. Renteria does not do any of that because he is a terrible baseball player. O yeah, he sucks at defense as well. He should be cut, Janish should hold it down until Cozart comes back and can play everyday.

Glad I got that off my chest. I have more, including the greatest example of Dusty incompetence to date. (Yes, bigger than when he ruined Aaron Harang's Reds career.)

Chris Carpenter: Asshat

2010-08-15T12:40:00.003-04:00

Troy Renck of the Denver Post weighs in. Even the hippies in Colorado think he is a douche.

http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_15782562

Carpenter: An expert pain

NEW YORK — Not sure how I missed it.

But sometime in the last year, there was a baseball-related Maury Povich Show. Remember, it was the one where a DNA test confirmed that Abner Doubleday is the father of Chris Carpenter.

How else to explain Carpenter's vast knowledge of the game. He's not only the smartest player ever, but I am pretty sure you have to know a secret handshake just to say hello to him.

Let's get this straight: Carpenter is a brilliant pitcher. He could have won the Cy Young Award last season. Probably would have, had teammate Adam Wainwright not split the vote. Carpenter, at 13-4 with a 2.95 ERA, could just as easily win this year, though Wainwright is the current favorite. His intensity ranks somewhere between the Ravens' Ray Lewis and the CIA's Jason Bourne.

That is admirable. Who wouldn't want a teammate that takes his craft that seriously? The problem isn't the ERA, it's the IQ.

He knows everything about everything. Dare I say it — he's become the next Curt Schilling.

Last September, he accused the Rockies of having a different slope on the visitor's bullpen mound, creating an issue when the pitcher entered the game. The Rockies measured it the next day with the umpires watching, and that still didn't satisfy Carpenter and the Cardinals. As if Rockies groundskeeper Mark Razum threw on a miner's hat and broke out the shovel and the laser level the night before.

Then, Carpenter went nuts at Houston's Carlos Lee this season. Not because Lee hit a home run. That would be logical. No, he got hot with Lee because the Astros' slugger had the audacity to scream in disgust when he popped up. Carpenter was insulted that Lee reacted in anger. He barked at Lee. Lee stared back incredulously. This is quite possibly the lamest incident of the season — telling a hitter how to act when he makes an out. Not when he gets a hit. When he gets an out.

Which brings us to last week. The Cardinals make a big deal about never showing opponents up. Apparently that doesn't apply to teammates. Carpenter lectured shortstop Brendan Ryan for showing up late on the field and with the wrong glove. He provided a lecture in the dugout that was more fitting for a police officer than a pitcher. With a six-run lead, Carpenter then glared a hole through Ryan when a single slipped through into left field as the shortstop was shaded up the middle.

Carpenter called it a misunderstanding. Labeling it inappropriate would have been more accurate. Then, he finished by weighing in on basebrawl etiquette. You know the back story by now. The Reds' Brandon Phillips popped off, calling the Cardinals "little (bleeps)." He tried to make nice, by tapping catcher Yadier Molina's shin guard in his first at-bat the next day. Molina, not surprisingly, called Phillips out, making it clear that they weren't friends and everything wasn't cool. A fight ensued.

During the melee, as tempers began to cool, Carpenter screamed at Reds manager Dusty Baker. Former Cardinal Scott Rolen pushed Carpenter toward the fence to defuse the situation. As the moshpit moved that way, Johnny Cueto was pinned. He began kicking, striking catcher Jason LaRue on the head. Was it cowardly or self defense? He didn't have to kick, but he had the right to save himself from broken ribs.

He was suspended for seven games. Probably should have been 10. Carpenter — who else? — weighed in afterward, explaining that Cueto was never told how to fight correctly. Thank you, Dana White. Appreciate it. Can you get me a sparring match with Brock Lesnar?

It just never ends with Carpenter. I am rooting for him to make next year's All-Star Game so he can explain the immigration law and its psychoanalytic impact on the minds of future generations.

Chris, if it's all the same to you, could you just pitch and button your lip? Thanks in advance.

Thoughts on the fight and a look ahead

2010-08-13T14:47:00.004-04:00

Let me first say this: Brandon Phillips shouldn't have said what he said. I know why he said it but I don't think it was right to tell it to reporters. The past few years, the Cardinals have done a lot of bitching and moaning. They accused Bronson Arroyo of having something on his hat to doctor pitches. Twice they have accused the Reds of not having sticky enough balls even though they are the same they have always been. Funny that there was no complaint about the balls this week when they won all 3 games. The Cardinals also complained about the Brewers untucking their shirts after games. I would have thought the Cardinals wouldn't be able to see that from their high horse. So in general, they complain. Everyone knows it. No need to say it Brandon.

Having said that, the Cardinals handled it very poorly. The way it should have played out was for Garcia to fire a fastball into Brandon's back to start Tuesday's game. Message sent: Message received. Move on. Apparently, that isn't the Cardinal way. They would rather start a fight.

Brandon tapped the shin guard of Molina and the umpire just like he did the night before and every other game this year. It is his way of saying have a good game. It isn't a buddy-buddy thing because he tapped the guard Monday, an hour after he made the comments. Molina didn't like it. He should have given the sign to hit Brandon in the back but he didn't want that. He wanted a fight so he got in Brandon's face. Let's fight. There was pushing and the benches cleared but nothing serious. Dusty and Tony argued to protect their teams and increase a crazy feud they have between them. Everything was calming down until Asshat Carpenter got involved. According to John Fay, he dropped the big two words which set off Rolen and the rest of the Reds. The fight moved to the wall and netting behind home. Cueto, who had just finished pitching the top of the first got caught up against it. His body went parallel. He didn't have time to think and went into survival mode. He couldn't punch back because he was horizontal so he did the only thing he could do and kicked like hell. He caught Jason LaRue and Jonny Gomes. Maybe a few others. Then it stopped and the game continued after both managers were ejected. Fine. No big deal.

Then the Cardinals started bitching again because when you are called complainers, the best way to shed that label is pick a fight, escalate the fight, then whine when the other team fights back. Mr. Sportsmanship, Tony DUI La Russa, complained about the way Cueto fought back. I guess he was supposed to stay there and risk serious injury. That is what a Cardinal would have done. The Reds fought back and someone got hurt. Guess what? It was a fight Molina started. Don't whine when we fight back. God I hate the Cardinals.

So to sum up, Brandon shouldn't have opened his mouth, Molina shouldn't have gotten in his face, and the Cardinals need to quit whining.

Now on to the Marlins. Need to win 2 of 3 and get some momentum before the west coast road trip that will define the season. Josh Johnson goes tonight. I recommend everyone watch because he is amazing. Probably the best in the NL right now.

Biggest Home Series in a Decade

2010-08-09T15:34:00.003-04:00

Biggest home series in a decade. Too nervous to focus longer then a few minutes. Here are some quick thoughts:

-After an amazing weekend in Chicago, I will refrain from Dusty bashing. He did pull Cordero Saturday instead of letting him blow it. I nearly ran on the field to take out Cordero myself after he hit Castro. Thank you Nick Masset. I will post some pictures tomorrow but suffice it to say it was very satisfying to go up there and be obnoxious after all the times I have had to put up with those assholes at GAB. Winning all 3 certainly helped. Now to whip up on the other obnoxious fans of the NL Central.

-The Reds traded Chris Dickerson for Jim Edmonds. Not too upset with this move. Dickerson could never stay healthy and had no place in the Reds future. Edmonds is a rental who will be gone next year so as to not block any of the young hitters in the minors. He also brings leadership and playoff experience and if he gets hurt, so what. We got him for practically nothing. At the very least he can give us some tips and steal some signs from his former club the next few days. He crushes RH pitchers and could be a great platoon with Stubbs and/or Gomes.

More tomorrow after the game. Go Reds!

Time for a Road Trip

2010-08-05T15:52:00.002-04:00

In honor of the First Place Cincinnati Reds (never get tired of typing that) I am headed up to Chicago for the weekend series. A friend and I picked out this weekend early in April and had no idea the Reds would be in first place. Never in our wildest dreams did we think they would be 13.5 games better then the Cubs, .5 games up on St. Louis, and leading the NL Central on August 6th. Goes to show you what can happen when you get solid players and good pitching. Dusty has stayed mostly out of the way (now that Cabrara is hurt there is almost no way to mess this up) and the Reds have been awesome to watch. I will try and get some good pictures as we invade the Bar that happens to have a baseball field, also known as Wrigley Field. You will probably hear me since I will be one of the few people paying attention to the game and not the hotdog/beer guy/fat chick buffet that is Wrigley. Any suggestions for the trip? Taunts for Lou Pinella? I may even share in our mutual hatred of the one, the only, Corey Patterson. Have fun and Go Reds!

Bring Back Donkey! Who is this Donkey?

2010-07-28T09:14:00.004-04:00

So was going to write a quick post that we should bring back the Donkey. We have been shut out more than any team in the league and this guy can hit it out of the park. Now i know he is a defensive liability (but so is our SS and he can't even hit), but his bat makes up for it. Sure Lance Nix has been decent, but with one more bat we have a top of the order that will score runs (again excluding Cabrera which Boose has covered many times). If we are serious about winning the World Series then lets take a chance, bring back someone the city loves and have two guys on the team battling for the HR title. If you are going to post that he strikes out too much, please also provide evidence that a strike out costs you more outs than a ground out before embarrassing yourself.

Now that I've covered the Donkey coming to Cincinnati. I ran across this article written by a Donkey, A look at the current Reds vs. the last World Series team in Cincinnati. Interesting question so I gave it my time. Lets go fjm style and break it down:

With the Cincinnati Reds being contenders with a lot of young talent, talk around Reds Country has been how the current Reds measure up to some of the great Reds teams of the past. I have seen the Reds win the World Series three times in my lifetime and I won't insult your intelligence by comparing the 2010 Reds with the Big Red Machine of 1975 and 1976 other than to say no current Reds' every day player would crack that lineup at the same position.

You could argue that, but I would give Votto's current MVP year slightly ahead of Perez in 1975(15th in MVP voting),1976(no votes). Also OPS 1.012 vs. .816/.776. But agree this team all around isn't nearly as good.

However, it is not uncommon to see the current Reds compared to the 1990 team that went 91-71 but won the World Series. Breaking the teams down position-by-position, I agree.

The first sentance makes little sense: they had a good record, but (which means contrary to what the first thought would convey) they won the post season tournament of the teams with good records.

Catcher: Joe Oliver/Jeff Reed vs. Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan. None of these guys will be mistaken for Johnny Bench, but they are adequate. The current team is better offensively, 1990 was better defensively. EVEN.

Given he decided that statistics are irrelevant here. So will I. Looking stuff up is hard with all the internets and since neither of us are professional writers it doesn't make sense... Wait this guy gets paid to write about baseball and can just give us "Four catchers aren't as good as one of the best catchers of all time". Well done indeed. Without looking it up I'll agree that we are even at catcher.

First base: Todd Benzinger/Hal Morris vs. Joey Votto. Good journeymen vs. an MVP candidate. EDGE: 2010.

Worth noting that Hal Morris was on steroids as well. That is embarrassing that he still sucked.

Second base: Mariano Duncan/Ron Oester vs. Brandon Phillips. Duncan had a career year and Oester was solid in his final year, but Phillips might be the best second baseman in the National League this year. EDGE: 2010.

Love a shout out to Ronny O, my favorite player of all time. Phillips might be the best second baseman in the NL this year, but to figure that out I'd have to look up how he compares with others this year and that seem like a lot of work

Shortstop: Barry Larkin vs. Orlando Cabrera. As good as Cabrera has been this year, Larkin should be in Cooperstown. Next question? BIG EDGE: 1990

Here is where he started to lose me "As good as Cabrera has been." How good has that been really? Is it the fact he gets more outs than anyone on the team or the fact he isn't that great defensively? It should read, guy who should be in the hall of fame vs guy who should be backup on my softball team

Third base: Chris Sabo vs. Scott Rolen. Different type players. Sabo's was perfect for the vast alleys at Riverfront Stadium, Rolen is great for Great American, is a bit better defensively but is often hurt. EVEN.

One was good at one ball park the other was good at another ball park. Dynamite stuff here. I wish someone would invest a stat that normalized for stadiums... wait... they do... Crazy, OPS+ Sabo 119 vs Rolen 139... Loved the goggles on Sabo, but Rolen is much better despite the injuries

Left field: Eric Davis vs. Jonny Gomes/Laynce Nix. Gomes, especially, and Nix have been solid. At times, Davis was incredible. EDGE: 1990.

"At times," does he mean various years or at times throughout 1990. 1990 wasn't Davis best year statistically, but agree he was better throughout the year than our guys. Aren't we comparing 1990 with 2010 or the careers of the players in 1990 vs the careers of the players in 2010 (the later makes no sense, but would make the Rolen vs Sabo discussion fairly easy)

Center field: Billy Hatcher vs. Drew Stubbs. This one is closer than you might think. EDGE: 1990.

(Note: Hatcher and Davis both played center and left in 1990. I used the World Series lineup.)

So it is closer than I might think. Why is that? I guess you did some research to prove these guys are statistically closer so please elaborate. Does he mean Stubbs OPS of .706 vs Hatcher at .708 which is very close. In fact so close that you would need to look deeper to prove Hatcher is better or just give it a push.

Right field: Paul O'Neill vs. Jay Bruce. In 1990, O'Neill hit .270 with 16 home runs. Through Saturday, Bruce was hitting .262 with 10 long balls. EVEN.

The first sign of statistics here and we go with bating average and home runs to call it even. I guess this is a start. Ironically Hatcher had 5HRs with BA of .276 vs. Stubbs 13HRs and .235 (so not sure what any of this means).

Starting pitching: Then, the staff had a bit more experience and a legitimate hammer in Jose Rijo. Currently, the staff has more depth and a couple of potential hammers in Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. SLIGHT EDGE: 2010.

I'm not going to bother to look at the entire list from 1990 because it is pretty long. I'll say Rijo was good and compare him to two of our other guys. Based on that I'll give it to 2010 because they have two guys with potential to be as good as one guy was during the time period in question (remember this isn't a question of which players will have the longest careers, but which team is better in a specific year. The fact Voltron or Cueto may be as good as Rijo one day is irrelevant to if the 2010 team has a better pitching staff than the 1990 team.).

Bullpen: Are you kidding? The current Reds' pen is getting better statistically but it has too many blown saves for me. The Nasty Boys might have been the greatest pen ever put together. HUGE EDGE: 1990.

Are you kidding ME? Explain "getting better statistically". I bet he is thinking that because Coco has more saves than he did in the beginning of the year he is getting better. Also too many blown saves for you, so it is really just the closer you have a problem with then. I mean Masset doesn't have any blown saves, but he isn't good. This is the reason we won't win the World Series, but hopefully they continue to get better statistically.

Bench: Very similar, from Luis Quinones to Glenn Braggs vs. Miguel Cairo to Chris Heisey. EVEN.

Don't care, as the next one will really put this over the top.

Managing and intangibles: Everything Lou Piniella touched 20 years ago turned to gold. Dusty Baker sure seems to be proving his skeptics wrong this year. But where the teams are most alike is they both seem to have that swagger, that cockiness that great teams have.

Dusty has not proven anything to this skeptic (see all previous posts). Both teams have swagger, which is leads to winning and is not a result of winning. When I was a freshman in high school at 5'2'' 98lbs, I got my butt kicked because I lacked swagger. My lack of cockiness had nothing to do with getting my butt kicked. The rest of this discussion isn't worth the response

Overall: The current Reds are good, not great, but have some pieces in place to be good for several years. Still, I give the 1990 team the advantage in four areas, the current team in three. Given the huge gap between The Nasty Boys and the current pen, the I believe the Reds' last world champion is just a bit better than this team.

Prediction: The Reds have what it takes to win the National League Central, which I think they will. But unlike 1990, the big trophy will go elsewhere.

So we aren't great yet, but might be someday (which isn't relevant to the current discussion). Based on the every one of his categories is equal the 1990 team barely gets passed this one coupled with the huge disparity in the area that will cost us the championship. Unlike 1990 the trophy will go elsewhere because we don't have Terry Hatcher and Rolen isn't better than Sabo. Great analysis here. Also if we make the post season in what round do we play the 1990 Reds. I would be much more worried about the Yankees or Red Sox, but hopefully we can take down those guys from 20 years ago.

--John Herndon
Thank you John. I'm glad espn.com linked to your article. It was very insightful

Nice little comeback

2010-07-26T13:46:00.002-04:00

It looked bad their for a minute. The Reds went from solidly in first to 1.5 games back in a little over a week thanks to an awful 4 game sweep in Philly then a tough split with the Nationals. They were teetering on the edge of irrelevancy until a nice little weekend in Houston, taking 2 of 3 including one from noted Reds killer Roy Oswalt. Now they sit a half game back, with 3 in Milwaukee followed by a quick 3 game homestand against the Braves. Let's hope that is a battle of first place teams.

Scott Rolen has been hurt (shocking!) but is hopeful to return in the next few days. As usual, the Reds have struggled on offense without him, having been shutout in 4 of the 12 games. Cabrara continues to put up a ton of outs. Even with his solid week, his OBP is below .300 and he will probably get the second most PA's of anyone on the team, behind Brandon Phillips. I have a thought: Let's not give the guy who makes the most outs the second most opportunities to make an out. No wait, that is both logical and simple. Dusty can't handle that. Keep that "SS must bat second" mantra. Works great. The Reds have one of the top 5 players in baseball batting 3rd and a player with the least valuable bat in the NL. How many runs have they lost because of this idiotic lineup construction? How many wins? In a division and wild card that will come down to only a few games, it is a crime to give away runs like this. If you insist on playing Cabrara, bat him lower in the order. Not in front of one of the best players in the majors. Mark it down: If the Reds miss the playoffs by less then 3 games, this will be the reason, and it is all on Dusty.

A commentator mentioned that all I do is whine. I guess he expected a site called Fire Dusty Baker to be about hope, rainbows, and unicorns. Then again the commentator also called it a web log. He should have used "that twitters" and "the internets" just to round out the "Ways to sound like a total idiot when talking about technology" trifecta.

Anyway, since the Reds have been treading water, not much has been going on. Maybe a trade is about to happen or some other major news. Until then, I will be watching and hoping this team and overcome the giant obstacle in the manager's office and make the playoffs. Go Reds!

Glad I haven't had much to write about

2010-07-09T09:29:00.003-04:00

-It has been a few weeks since I have written on the blog. My little brother got married last week so that took up a good amount of time but the real reason is the Reds have been playing very well. Despite Dusty's best efforts, and I think he is trying to kill me by continually playing Cabrara, the Reds have taken their largest lead in the Central since Lebron James was in High School, 2002. How long ago does that sound now? The Reds have four all-stars and a few other players enjoying career years. The pitching has held up and with one win this weekend they will ensure a winning record on this 11 game road trip. Didn't think that was possible. I will have a longer Reds post during the all-star break but for now let's enjoy the First Place Cincinnati Reds. Onto other things.

-The World Cup has been amazing. I have watched nearly every game and thoroughly enjoyed the spectacle and the sport. The USA's dramatic goal against Algeria brought the nation together like no other soccer game. The only thing comparable was the gold medal hockey game. The loss to Ghana was crushing but at least there was no controversy. We just got beat. It happens.

I can't wait to watch the finals on Sunday with Spain vs. Holland. A certain someone picked Spain to win it all so why change now. They have played well since their shocking first game loss to Switzerland and have stars all over the field. Holland was great against Brazil, beating the favorites in one of the most exciting games of the Cup. The most exciting was the Uruguay-Ghana game. I have never seen anything like that and I have watched a ton of sports in my day. The swing from one side to the other so fast and so dramatic had me yelling at the TV multiple times. I just hope the final isn't settled on penalties. I hate PK shootouts in the final. I could see it in the rounds before since you don't want one team gaining a huge advantage of not having played 30 more minutes then the other but in the final that doesn't matter. Let them decide it on the field. Give them bigger rosters, 3 more subs, 10 more subs, however many it takes. I just want someone to win it on the field, not in a glorified home run derby/free throw shooting contest. It is unfair to everyone.

-LeBron in Miami is going to be awesome. The one hour special was stupid but I have one thing to say to all those that complain about it; turn the station. The decision will be the same tomorrow as it was last night. Why watch if you think it is stupid? I watched the Reds game until right before he announced. Once he said Miami I turned back. Simple. He even coordinated it so it would be during a Reds TV break.

I also don't get how he is bailing out by going to Miami. Didn't he get killed for not winning a title by himself? Wasn't everyone saying he needed better players? Now he goes to the team with the best players and it is bailing out because he isn't doing it on his own? No one did it on their own. He tried, it didn't work. Kobe needed Gasol. Michael needed Scottie. Shaq needed Kobe. KG needed Allen and Pierce. Every superstar needs another elite player. It doesn't matter where you do it, just as long as you win. It is a smart decision. He will be on TV nearly every night, play in front of sold out arenas every night, play with good friends who he knows can help him out if needed, and win a ton of games. They don't just mail him the trophy. He will have to earn it and you know Boston, Orlando, LA, etc. will be gunning for them with all they have. How is that bailing out? People say he needs to win. He is trying to do that. Why not go to the best situation?

Will have my first half review next week. Until then, Go Reds.

Rick Riley is Not Interesting

2010-06-25T14:50:00.004-04:00

So the Reds are looking pretty good and frankly I'm afraid of jinxing it. Rumors of the Tang trade are out there, which is nice. Also I'm too old to stay up for games on the west coast. Who stays up past 10pm? That is crazy, so I'll be back with reviews next week and maybe even a live blog of the Strausberg game on Monday depending on how the Little Big Deal is.

So now on the World Cup, I have been sitting on this for a few weeks, but frankly had to say something. Rick Riley has decided the most popular sporting event on the planet is broken and needs him to fix it was too much. I ignored it for days, but espn kept the link on its website for so long, curiosity got the best of me. After reading it, I remember why I’m not a huge fan of Riley (and by not a huge fan, I would rather read Ben Rothlisberger’s book on how to woo a lady than read Riley). I've decided to break it down FJM style for our loyal reader. So without further ado, my first attempt at humor in quite a while

From Rick Riley’s article Here's how to fix the World Cup.

Again this implies that is it broken and needs fixing. I’m sure that all those people who watched the last few games were thinking, “I’m enjoying this, as are 2 billion other people, but it is broken. Where is some enlightened person to make this right.?”

Here are the top 10 most annoying things about watching the World Cup already:

By the way, you don’t have to watch. It isn’t the law of the land, so if it annoys you turn it off. Kind of like everyone in the world does with the WNBA.

That pesky cerebrum-blowing incessant buzzing sound coming from the TV set. "Babe, something's wrong with the TV," my wife said Saturday. But there wasn't anything wrong. It was the dreaded vuvuzelas, the yard-long plastic horns (voo-voo-zella) that South African fans blow all the time, without rhyme nor reason, when something is happening and when it's not (it's usually not), during timeouts and time ins, during halftime and at the breakfast table and while they're on the bus and while doing their taxes, until you just want to stab two fondue forks deep into your ears and stir.

Turn the sound down on your TV. This is a fairly easy fix and frankly after a few games you don’t really even notice it. I know it is popular to make fun of them, but its been a little overdone. Also why do you have the TV on while you are doing your taxes? Just turn it off or is that too difficult

They never stop. It's like having a desk in the center cubicle at American Bee, Inc. They sound like 80,000 yaks getting sick. They are the leading cause of Tylenol sales in the world today.

We get it. You think they are loud and annoying and for some reason you are incapable of turning down the volume on your TV.

The embarrassing photographer bibs the guys on the bench have to wear during the game. They're very purple and dorky. My God, who knew you could make a World Cup team and be made to look like a geek? Hey, are you on the American national soccer squad or do you throw bags for Northwest Airlines?

This one is funny because people who do manual labor look funny and are beneath me. Yeah throwing bags at the bag counter, what is more demeaning than that.

The Twinkie-fingered gloves goalkeepers wear. No wonder the English goalkeeper allowed that easy shot to give America a 1-1 tie in the Group C opener. You couldn't stop a beach ball with those big goofy things. What, is Hamburger Helper a sponsor? Why must they be so huge? Doesn't Roger Rabbit need them back? And where do the batteries go? How are goalkeepers expected to hang on to the ball with them on? And is it difficult to play goalie while also taking things out of the oven?

Do all his articles have one-thousand questions which say the same thing? Does he just write down every joke he can think of and hope one is funny? Does he have an editor? Why does the fact the gloves are big bother him? Does he have to wear them?

The godforsaken vuvuzelas! Make them stop! One of the charms of soccer is the singing that fans do. There is always loads of singing and chanting because every game is 1-nil, so there's plenty of time for singing and chanting. Soccer fans sing and chant inane hilarious things like, "We are from Norway! We came on a plane! And we are very drunk!" But we don't get to hear the singing and the chanting because of the horrible, hideous, heinous vuvuzelas! My god, they should take them into the mountainous caves region of Pakistan and play them until Osama bin Laden comes running out, screaming, "OK, OK! I give!"

This is funny b/c he already mentioned that he doesn’t like them. I like how he does this because it gives him an opportunity to try another couple hundred jokes that aren’t funny on the same topic. Jay Leno makes a living at this everything.

All the faking. I haven't seen this much bad theater since I saw former "American Idol competitor" Ace Young starring in "Hair" on Broadway. These guys collapse as though they've just caught a javelin in the groin every time an opponent so much as asks them for the time. These guys make Paul Pierce look sincere. Sell it somewhere else, Sven. We live in the U.S., where hockey players pop their eye back into their socket without missing a shift. This will be the new rule when I'm made president of FIFA: If you stay on the ground longer than 30 seconds, you're out of the game; 45, you are taken directly to the nearest hospital; 60, you get a telethon.

Frankly I’m kind of with him on this one. Granted referencing Paul Pierce illustrates that it happens in every sport. I also like how hockey (the national sport of Canada) is used to show the US is much tougher and rarely fakes injuries. Why not use football (and then he could have used a funny joke about the difference between our football and theirs, but I feel one may be coming anyway)

The yellow cards. I love the way the refs come running up to the player as though he has just taken out a chainsaw and sawed somebody's hand off. The ref looks very stern and upset. And then all the ref does is snap his little yellow piece of paper out of his shirt pocket and stick it in the offender's face, as though the little yellow card has some kind of superpower. As if to say, "Ha! you are powerless against my little yellow piece of paper, which shows your less-than-average marks from third grade!" I'd love to see that in the middle of an NBA fight. Can you imagine seeing some ref come running up to Rasheed Wallace after laying out Carmelo Anthony with a roundhouse right and sticking that yellow card right in his face? He'd soon be digesting it through his ear hole.

I would say we need yellow cards instead of technical fouls in basketball. How much more fun would this be? How is a yellow card less effective than a technical foul? I’m guessing that if Rasheed laid out Carmelo Anthony putting a “T” sign with your fingers isn’t going to have much more of an effect. I think he was reaching here… but wait it gets worse.

The ties. In the NFL in the past 10 years, there have been two ties. As of Tuesday morning, in the first 11 games of this World Cup, there have been five ties. You will not see more ties at a J.C. Penney's Father's Day sale. I hate ties. Doesn't anybody want to win in this sport? All these ties are about as exciting as a Jonas Brothers roundtable on sex.

He doesn’t like ties because they bore him. Also he again makes 2 jokes on the same subject, neither of which are very funny. I mean JC Penney’s does have a lot of ties, which is a good observation but not very funny. The Jonas Brothers don’t have sex, which must also be funny.

The World Cup itself. Really? All this running and vuvuzela-ing and pulling off shirts for that trophy? It looks like somebody soldered it together in their basement -- after drinking a handle of Jack Daniel's. It looks like something you'd use to prop open your Tuff Shed door during spring cleaning. It's gold and small and looks like somebody accidentally melted it somewhere along the way. I mean, there IS chocolate in the middle of that thing, right? Maybe I just don't get it.

Finally he makes some sense. Yes you just don’t get it. I’m assuming the "it" he is referring to in the last sentence is sports, writing and comedy, but maybe I only glossed over the paragraph. By the way we get another mention of the vuvuzela. Other than the Stanley Cup, the trophy is secondary to the accomplishment of actually winning the competition. I mean the football on a stand or basketball on a stand are that much better than a soccer ball on a stand?

Stoppage time. Why can't we know how much time is left? Why must it be such a mystery? Whose idea was this? Why do only the refs get to know? Wouldn't it be more exciting if we all knew? You tell me which is more exciting:

You do know b/c they hold up a sign that tells you. Would have been more funny if it was written 10 years ago. I would say this means he hasn’t seen a single game this year, but remember he mentioned the vuvuzelas

A. "Ten seconds left now! Kaka needs to get a shot off here or it's over! Five seconds! Kaka wheeling! Two seconds! There's the shot! And … "

B. "Well, the ref should be calling this game shortly. A minute or two. Maybe more. Actually, I don't know. Nigel, do you know? Kaka seems confused. He's dribbling. Wait. Now he's stopped to examine a small scab, and well, that's it. The ref says it's over. I guess that's it, then."

All we get is B. Somebody needs to put some stoppage to stoppage time.

Actually his analogy is flawed. Say what you will about stoppage time, but it normally leads to the ref letting the attacking team finish out before blowing the whistle. So instead of getting guys kicking the ball from midfield where they have no chance of making it (i.e. kind of like the end of hockey periods), you sometimes get a well run play down the stretch and more excitement (see US goal or Italy finish yesterday)

The vuvuzelas from eardrum-hellas! Don't tell me it's discrimination to want them to stop. Don't tell me it's an essential part of South African culture. If it is, it's an annoying part of their culture. Yes, I know that centuries ago, the vuvuzelas were made from animal horns to call the village elders in for a meeting. And I'll bet you five wildebeests that when the elders finally got to the meeting they said, "Would you STOP already with the blowing? You're making me crazy!" I've been to Africa four times. They do some of the most beautiful singing you can imagine. At the World Cup, I'm hearing no singing. I'm hearing no chanting. I'm hearing 80,000 kazoos on steroids.

No such thing as a dead horse here. These vuvuzelas are not entertaining and he doesn’t enjoy them. Thanks again for mentioning.

But it still sounds better than Ace Young.

And in Bozich style he references a prior bad joke to end the column so as to prove he is witty. So in an article about ways to fix the most popular sporting event in the world, we get a list of 10 (well actually 8 b/c 3 are on there twice) things that bug some guy. So I can’t help him with all of these, but for numbers 1, 4 and 10, just turn the TV down.

Quick Reds Update, World Cup Thoughts

2010-06-22T18:30:00.004-04:00

Thank goodness I was in New Orleans drinking my face off and missed the latest Dusty Baker stinkbomb. No one could hit and he refused to do anything about the black hole at the top of the lineup. Cabrara kept playing and managed to drop his terrible OPS+ to 67. He has the 4th worst OPS of any player in the NL. And he bats leadoff. HOW CAN DUSTY BE THIS DUMB? Congrats on being the new Corey Patterson. Didn't think it was possible. Dusty benched him last night and they won. Of course it took a Coco blown save to get there but whatever. It has been a rough couple of weeks. I need a break. The Reds need a sweep of Oakland and at least 2 of 3 against Cleveland to get back at the top of the division. Probably won't watch too much since the greatest event in the world is really heating up in South Africa.

The World Cup has been amazing. Everyone is talking about it so we can finally get rid of all the "no one watches soccer" argument once and for all. If you still think Americans don't care then you have been under a rock for 2 weeks or you are a UK fan. It is all me and my friends have talked about and will continue to talk about until America takes home the Cup(I wish).

America was robbed last Friday and I sure let some expletives fly from Bourbon St. but it is still win and move on which is fine. If we can't beat Algeria we don't deserve a spot. I think we will win 2-0 and England will win 1-0. That is how it should be just so we can watch England fans get excited again before having their hearts ripped out next round.

We now know 4 of the final 16 and I don't like to brag but I got 3 of them. Tomorrow morning should be fun.

Upcoming schedule, Cabrera rant

2010-06-15T18:50:00.005-04:00

Tough weekend for the Reds. Losing 2 of 3 to the Royals is unacceptable even if one was to Zack Greinke. He was amazing on Sunday, dominating every Reds hitter except Joey Votto. The big disappointment was the pitching. The Royals and Giants are bad offensive teams but they crushed the ball all over the field. Now the Reds get the Dodgers, a good hitting team. I shutter to think of what they will do this week. But don't fret Reds fans, relief is on the way. Beginning Friday, the Reds start a west coast road trip that takes them to Seattle and Oakland before returning to play 3 against the Indians. I see the Reds winning all 3 of those series and taking control of the Central. Let's hope the pitching comes around in time.

One quick Dusty note: He keeps playing Orlando Cabrera and batting him leadoff. This is unacceptable. 2 years ago I started this blog partly because he kept playing Corey Patterson, he of the .238 OBP, and batting him leadoff. I was not pleased. Last season, it was Willy Taveras and his .275 OBP. Now it is Cabrera and his .296. I think he is doing this on purpose to piss me off. It is by far the lowest on the team and I can't imagine anyone looking at the numbers and batting him leadoff unless they were trying to lose. I don't care what leadership he brings. A real leader who take a backseat when it is clear they were hurting the team. ANY PLAYER ON THE ROSTER, INCLUDING HIS BACKUP, WOULD BE BETTER. Why does Dusty keep putting the guy who makes the most outs at the top of the order? Does he not understand baseball? Is he sniffing glue? Is he a communist? I wish I knew the answer to any of those questions.

I will be at a bachelor party this weekend so I will not be able to post Friday. I will try and post some World Cup thoughts Thursday but if not, I will be at a bar in New Orleans Friday morning cheering Sam's Army on. Go 'Merica.

World Cup Preview

2010-06-11T08:49:00.002-04:00

Finally. It is here. I have been waiting for this since Euro '08 ended. Here are some thoughts on what to watch for and what I think will happen:

Group A-Mexico, South Africa, France, Uruguay

I feel this is Mexico's group for the taking. They looked very good toward the end of qualifying, beating the US in Mexico City and taking care of the rest of CONCACAF soon after. The have a great young player in Giovani dos Santos and the new Manchester United player Javier Hernandez. South Africa has the home field advantage which has become a huge factor. Every home team has advanced out of its group since I began watching the World Cup in '94. Having said that, I don't think they can overcome all 3 of these teams. France is very up and down. They won it all in '98, failed to make it out of the group stage in '02, then made the finals in '06. I sense another fall back which is why I think the second team to qualify from here will be Uruguay. Not many people know about them but they have one of the best scoring tandems in the world with Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan. I think Mexico wins the group and Uruguay places second.

Group B-Argentina, South Korea, Greece, Nigeria

This one is all Argentina. They have the best player in the world, Leo Messi, and a ton of other elite players such as Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, and Angel Di Maria. They have an insane coach in former World Cup superstar Diego Maradona who will be either the best thing to happen to them, or the worst. Not much in between with him. I could see any of the other teams rising up and taking second in this group but I am going with Greece. They won the '04 European Championship with unusual tactics and they will be able to use them again to advance here. South Korea made a great run at home in the '02 World Cup(thanks to some "questionable" officiating) but have otherwise been unimpressive including a 3-0 loss to China. Nigeria has a great player in John Obi Mikel but not much else. They are not the African team I am picking to advance.

Group C-USA, England, Slovenia, Algeria

Let's get his out of the way: England and the US will advance. Slovenia is not bad but too young to contend and Algeria needed a playoff just to qualify. The biggest match of the opening round is this Saturday: England vs. USA. I have been thinking about this since it was announced last December and can't believe it is actually here. It feels like the gold medal hockey game a few months back but ten times more intense. I will be singing every patriotic song I can find, drinking beer from that great English ass-kicker Sam Adams, and wearing my T-shirt that says Don't Tread On Me. Go 'Merica!

Group D-Germany, Serbia, Ghana, Australia

OK, here is where I am going a little off the grid. I like Ghana to be the African team that advances in this group. They have a solid team even without the injured Michael Essian, whose replacement Kwadwo Asamoah, is more then capable to take over. They should be able to handle Australia and I think they can tie the other 2, helping them finish second. Germany should win this group because they always play well at the World Cup but without Ballack it could be a struggle. Klose will not let them miss the knockout stage but I don't see them advancing much past the round of 16. Serbia plays a wide open attack which will come back to bite them when they surrender a few counterattack goals that keep them from advancing. The Socceroos are fun to watch but don't have the skill of discipline to compete with these teams.

Group E-Netherlands, Denmark, Cameroon, Japan

This group looks simple on paper and I think it will be just that. The two European squads are full of stars and the other two teams are not. The Dutch have Robin van Persie, Durk Kyut, and Wesley Sneijder, all elite players. Denmark has a great defensive line led by Simon Kjaer and a great attacking midfielder in Christian Poulson. Cameroon has a great player in Samuel Eto'o but not enough else and Japan is one of the worst teams here. I like a bit of an upset with Denmark finishing above the Dutch but both will advance

Group F-Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia, New Zealand

The defending champs have a pretty easy group and will easily advance. They are a few years older so I don't envision another deep run but qualifying for the knockout stage should be easy with Andrea Pirlo running around and Gianlugi Buffon in goal. For the second spot I am again going with a South American squad over the European one. Paraguay looked great in qualifying and has a solid attacker in Oscar Cardozo. Slovakia hasn't been able to put it all together but has a very exciting midfielder in Marek Hamsik. New Zealand looked great in the Lord of the Rings movie, not sure about their soccer team.

Group G-Brazil, Ivory Coast, Portugal, North Korea

North Korea is the worst team here and will be lucky to score a goal. The round robin between the other three teams will be fascinating. Brazil is the obvious choice but not a slam dunk. Robinho and Kaka are two of the best players in the world and will be a joy to watch. Portugal also has a former player of the year in Christiano Ronaldo although he has yet to excel on the international stage as much as he has on the club stage. This should be his time to do that and take Portugal out of the group stage. Ivory Coast was a sleeper for many until their leader and one of the best strikers in the world, Didier Drogba, broke his arm. He is trying to come back but will not have the same impact as he would have had if healthy. Because of the Drogba injury I will take Brazil and Portugal to move on.

Group H-Spain, Chile, Switzerland, Honduras

Spain has been amazing the past 2 years in international competition. The only game they have lost was last summer in the Confederation Cup to 'Merica. Aside from one bad game, they have been dominant. The only problem is their history. They have never won a World Cup and, frankly, have never really been close. They haven't made a final in a few generations and will need to overcome some major demons to win here. The other three teams seem pretty equal. This time I am taking the Euro team over the South American one. Switzerland made the second round in '06 and returns a few of the players including striker Blaise N'Kufo. Chile has a solid scorer in Humberto Suazo but lacks the experience needed to succeed at the cup. Honduras needed a miracle US goal to qualify and will be hard pressed to do much here.

In the knockout rounds I have Mexico-US in the round of 8 with the US advancing. On the other half of the bracket I have Denmark-Brazil in the Quarters with Brazil advancing. The third spot I have going to Argentina after getting by England in the Quarterfinal. The final team I have is Spain after beating the Dutch. In the final 4, I see Brazil beating the US and Spain beating Argentina setting up one of the greatest finals ever and Spain finally winning their first cup. Have fun and enjoy the games.

Well Done Coco and Challenge Thoughts

2010-06-11T08:48:00.003-04:00

I thought I would take a quick moment to compliment CoCo on doing his job last night. It is about time. Granted this would be like you guys complimenting me for using the toilet like a big boy, but still worth mentioning. If we extrapolate last night's performance, we can say something like "CoCo is back and hasn't given up a run in almost two days." 1.5 game lead going into a series with the Royals.

On another note, I just watched the RR/RR Challenge finale last night via TiVo. This was another great season filled with the usual cast of characters. The highlight was during the after show when Kenny admitted he is on the show to be famous. He pointed out everyone is on the show to be famous, otherwise they would join a local softball team in their hometown rather than fly to some unknown place to play this game. Refreshing to see someone actually speak honestly, and with that he has my support to run for public office. He is too young for President, but congress seems about right. We need someone in DC, who gave himself the nickname "Mr. Beautiful" and is able to outsmart the likes of Wes in a made up game. I think that qualifies him to battle the intellectual heavyweights of Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi.

Lastly, I heard a rumor that the Reds contacted Stormy Weathers about a possible comeback. If that is true my head will explode. I'd rather we hire this person.

Strasberg and Other Reds Thoughts

2010-06-10T08:44:00.005-04:00

Yes, I'm back to writing, but lets not make too big of deal b/c we know it may not take (see my other posts entitled "I'm Back"). So I broke down and got the MLB package in order to watch my Reds this year. As we continue towards the NL Central crown, it will clearly seem like a good investment (though Mrs. Big Deal may disagree after having watched more baseball in two months than the past four years of our marriage). Even if the Reds weren't on a path to a first round loss in the playoffs (more on the reason below, but as a hint the problem rhymes with Boco bodero), the ability to watch Strasberg every five days pays for the package. I was prepared to write my first post about if Mike Leake was named Strausberg he would be all over the front pages of the newspapers and think kid is all hype and a product of the modern media cycle. Then I sat down and watched a Nationals-Pirates game on a random Tuesday. Here is my initial reaction:

The stadium was packed and the atmosphere of the game was something you rarely see outside the post season (and in Atlanta you never see it). Apparently the Nat's fans were there 40 minutes early just to watch the guy warm up. I tuned into the Nat's TV station to watch Nat's pregame so I guess I understand. His first inning the crowd is on their feet and the place is going nuts. I'm thinking there is no way this lives up to the hype and then... 3 up 3 down as he is throwing the ball all over the zone. The game progressed and he blew threw the line up giving up 1 bad pitch that was taken yard, but otherwise dominating the hitters in a way Pedro used to do in the 90s. I figured the second or third time through the order, the guys would catch up to his speed and he would look mortal. Wrong, the kid got better and the 6th and 7th inning was flat out amazing. After watching this performance, I want to make sure I don't miss another start, because who knows what's next.. 20 strike outs? no hitter? Both in the same game? I wouldn't be surprised to see both. I'm not going to call him the second coming of Walter Johnson just yet, but I'm also not going to miss a start all season (maybe even a live blog one of these days. If we can find a day where he and Leake are both pitching, I'll try to do the double live blog to get instant thoughts on both guys).

I'll be back with my Reds thoughts next week (goal will be to post weekly on Wednesday or Thursday depending on work and how Big Deal jr. is doing), but wanted to give my initial thoughts on the season. Reds look great and have quite a bit going for us right now. Our young arms are finally showing up and we have great starting pitching. Dusty is staying out of the way the best he can with the bats (choice of lead off hitter excluded) and we are getting the luck needed to remain in contention. The problem lies in the bullpen, which has been terrible. I feel like the Mets' fans had to feel when they were playing well, but knew Wagner was the closer so games were never over. You can't win in October with a bullpen that will blow at least 1, maybe 2 games a series (especially in a 5 game series). It is time to make a move and I agree with others who have suggested we move LaClure out to the bullpen. I'd make him a closer (who knows maybe he could be like Papelbon and the move will be worth it, but worst case he continues to get big league experience and we find another closer next year). Begin to use Rhodes as our 8th inning set up man (I understand the man is old and we can't use him everyday, but as the season goes on lets begin to bet the farm and make him the go to set up man. We have a decent left hander making $30mm in the minors who could come up if Rhodes goes down). Speaking of the $30mm left hander, lets bring him up and put him out in the bullpen as well to throw gas. Again, I understand that starters are worth more than bullpen guys, but we have a shot to win this year so why not go all in. That still leaves one extra starter with Leake, Harang, Voltron, Bronson, Bailey and Cueto. I'd hold onto all of them until closer to the trade deadline to make sure Voltron comes back in ok shape and Dusty doesn't ruin the arm of Leake, Bailey or Cueto. If we are still in it at that point, time to move one of Harang or Bronson to get a bat from a contender looking for that 5th starter or go all in and move Cueto or Bailey to get a big name on loaner for the remainder of the year, who we could possibly sign with the money saved from Harang/Bronson/CoCo rolling off in the next 2 years (i.e. Hanley Ramirez).

Ok that is all for now. I'll have a more thought out post next week, where I'll go through exactly how bad our bullpen is and also discuss how great this season of RR/RR Challenge is.

Off Day Thoughts

2010-06-03T12:59:00.004-04:00

Well thank God that is over. The Reds are done with the Cards until August, which is nice. Now its time to pad our record against some below average teams. First up is Washington, followed by San Fran and finally the Royals. For the Reds, the pitching matchups work out pretty well. Washington is holding Strasburg back until right after the Reds leave, Lincecum misses the Reds by 1 day and Greinke should miss the Reds by a day as well. As a Reds fan, this is great news that we don't face 3 of the best pitchers in the game. As a viewer and possible attendant of these games, I am a little disappointed. Strasburg's first start will be like a rock concert. Glad ESPN is picking it up so I can watch it. Lincecum is great to watch on TV and I imagine just as fun to see live. Hope I get a chance to see him next year. I went to KC last season and missed Greinke. Now the Royals are in Cincy and I miss him again. 3 great pitchers, none of which I get to see live. O well. The Reds better capitalize on missing these guys with some wins. I expect no worse then 6-4 and 7-3 seems more realistic.

Now, onto other things.

-The NBA finals start tonight. 2 teams with unbearable fan bases square off. Not interested. Lakers in 6. I will check back in a few weeks when it is over and their fans finally shut up for a few minutes to see if I was right.

-I could not be more excited for the World Cup next Friday. It is one of my favorite events, along with the Olympics and big horse races. 32 countries from around the world go to South Africa to compete in the biggest soccer tournament ever. Every single game will get more viewers then every NBA finals game combined. The crowds are great, the players are amazing, and the drama is like nothing you have ever seen. Each of these players are rockstars back home and scoring a major goal is an achievement of a lifetime. Anyone who scores goes down as a legend. I remember watching in '94 when the US shocked the world and beat Columbia. I watched in '98 as France won on its home soil. I woke up at 3 am in '02 to watch the games in South Korea. In '06 I watched nearly every game thanks to a new thing called TIVO. I hope this World Cup is as exciting as the past few have been. I feel it will be. Go 'merica!

-Belmont stakes is Saturday. No Derby or Preakness winner. The sexy pick seems to be Ice Box, the second place horse from the Derby and the one who cost me my exacta. I think Ice Box loses but haven't decided who beats him. Right now I am thinking Stately Victor or Fly Down. Either one can grab it.

Reds keep Rolen

2010-05-28T09:50:00.003-04:00

I must say I am shocked at how well the team has played since the debacle in Atlanta. I expected a slump and extended losing streak. I expected mental errors and poor fundamentals. None of that happened and I am starting to think it has something to do with a certain veteran infielder.

Scott Rolen is having his best season in 5 years and the rest of the team is feeding off him. His stat line is very impressive at .272/.341/.556/.897/134 for an above average, 35 year old thirdbasemen. The young guys see what he does and learn from it. Phillips has learned to take more walks, walking at a rate of 9.4% when his previous high was 6.8%. Joey Votto has improved his defense and has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 3.9. The next closest firstbaseman is 2.2. Bruce, who had been in a bit of a power slump until last night, hasn't let that bother him. He has put up .278/.379/.457/.836/121 while playing the second best rightfield according to UZR. Johny Gomes is have a career year. Drew Stubbs has turned it around after a terrible start. Janish and Hanigan have played so well that they could be starters at any time. And Cabrara has.....well he has some RBIs. Yeah. The big change the Reds made between last year at this time and now is Scott Rolen. Everyone talks about how seriously he takes his job and how much he works at his game. It seems to be working. As long as he is in the lineup, the team looks very confident. They are fun to watch, something that hasn't been true in recent years. So from everyone in Reds Country, thanks Scotty.

(Yeah, I am totally glossing over the fact that some of this may have to do with Dusty not sucking but I don't buy it. He still sucks. If you want to hear how great he is, you probably shouldn't visit a website entitled Fire Dusty Baker)

Movie Talk

2010-05-25T19:45:00.002-04:00

So no Reds today. Will have something Friday.

For Christmas, my in-laws got me a book called 1001 Movies You Must See Before You Die. It is awesome and prompted me to try and see as many as I can, whether I had seen it or not. I have watched, or rewatched in some cases, about 60 thanks to friends with large DVD collections and Turner Classic Movies. Here is a quick list of the Best, Worst, and Biggest Surprises so far. I will try and update later this summer since we will be watching a lot more with the television season finished.

BEST

The Graduate - Great story, great acting, and great music. It is also referenced in a ton of movies that came later. Dustin Hoffman makes the movie with his awkwardness. He is the 1960's version of George Michael Bluth.

On the Waterfront - Marlin Brando was one hell of an actor. The fact he could make this great movie and come back twenty years later and do the Godfather is amazing. This movie has a ton of great scenes as well that are referenced all the time.

WORST

Crimes and Misdemeanors - I must be missing something about Woody Allen. Maybe its because I am not from New York but his acting is just weird. I can't relate to anything he does because I have never met anyone like him. The closest comparison is Larry David and I have never met him either. This movie bored me.

Rebel Without A Cause - I don't get it. There was no real plot and James Dean wasn't that great an actor. The fact he died tragically just before this movie was released has made people think it is amazing when in reality, I thought it was bad. Then again, James Dean isn't my type.\

SURPRISES

The Matrix - I guess the two sequels clouded my judgment because I had forgotten how good this movie was. The action scenes are amazing and Keanu Reeves overacts just enough to make it enjoyable. I would recommend everyone to rewatch it and pretend their weren't two awful sequels.

Platoon - Haven't gone back and watched Saving Private Ryan but it will be hard pressed to beat this movie. Tons of great actors all around and Charlie Sheen is pre-hooker so he is still trying to act.

And the run is over

2010-05-21T11:39:00.003-04:00

What a 48 hours. They beat the Brewers on an amazing 9th inning comeback, head to Atlanta sky high. Then it blows up. 2 straight walk-off losses including yesterday's epic collapse. I am still recovering. This will stay with the team for a while and may well be the beginning of the end. The past few seasons have had a major turning point where the Reds lose a heartbreaking game in a similar fashion and never recover. Dusty putting Harang in and effectively ruining him in San Diego two year ago comes to mind. Now we will look back at this game as the turning point. I think the team will go downhill. There is a chance they can recover and rise above it. I don't see it happening. Maybe the Cleveland rivalry will take their minds off it but I doubt it.

This is why you have a manager. He is supposed to get his team refocused and ready to move on. This is all Dusty. Either they recover and continue to compete or they fall and the Dusty Baker Farewell Tour picks up steam. Your move Dusty.

In other news, the World Cup kicks off in 3 weeks. I simply cannot wait. Tomorrow is the final of the Champions League which will be a nice tune-up but will pale in comparison to the passion and skill of the world cup. The U.S. should be strong and will have start the tournament with a grudge match 225 years in the making when they play England June 12. Don't Tread on Me. Nike has produced a great commercial to get people excited. Here it is:

Write The Future from Nalden on Vimeo.

One hell of a run

2010-05-18T19:28:00.002-04:00

So I managed to attend the only game the Reds have lost in the last 10 games. Sounds about right. The pitching is fantastic and the offense has done enough. Amazingly enough, Dusty seems to be doing something right which means there is not much for me to write about, so let's enjoy the ride.

CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10
Cincinnati	23	16	.590	-	14-9	9-7	188	185	+3	Won 4	9-1
St. Louis	22	17	.564	1	11-6	11-11	166	136	+30	Won 1	4-6
Chicago Cubs	17	22	.436	6	10-10	7-12	178	190	-12	Won 2	4-6
Pittsburgh	16	22	.421	6.5	9-9	7-13	133	236	-103	Lost 2	3-7
Milwaukee	15	24	.385	8	4-14	11-10	206	222	-16	Lost 8	2-8
Houston	13	25	.342	9.5	7-15	6-10	112	176	-64	Lost 4	4-6

Game notes, Preakness notes

2010-05-15T11:00:00.002-04:00

Made the decision to go up for the game last night with Drew, a Cards fan. Driving up there was a lot of buzz on the radio about the team. Sitting only 0.5 GB, most thought there would be a good crowd. We got seats in right field and got out there by the bottom of the 1st. Decent size crowd, numbering over 27,000, and we were treated to a pretty good game. Harang pitched decent, getting out of a first inning jam but then violating the one rule I live by, DON'T PITCH TO PUJOLS! Just before the pitch I told Drew they should walk him. Five seconds later it was 2-0 Cards. now he has confidence for the last 2 games of the series. Awesome. The Reds went down 4-0 when some scrub hit one just out of the reach of Bruce. If the wind is blowing anywhere but directly to right field, that is an out and the score stays at 2-0. Drew Stubbs clubbed one late to bring the Reds to 4-2 and the Reds threatened in the 9th. They scored one and had first and second with one out when Hernandez hit into a tailor-made 6-4-3 double play. Tough way to end.

I thought the Reds played pretty well. they fought back from down 4-0 rather then roll over as they had in the past. Dusty had an awkward episode where he yelled at the umpires for a while because they ejected Cairo. I don't get what that was about. Cairo pinch hit, struck out looking, then argued with the ump. Seemed simple but was a little too much for Dusty to wrap his head around. Typical.

The Preakness runs today. Let's hope Super Saver can win and set up an exiting Belmont stakes in three weeks. If I were a betting man, and I am since I am going to Churchill today, I would take a longshot since Super Saver is beatable. The race runs about 6 on NBC. You should watch since the Reds aren't until 7 and the NBA is taking its mandatory 5 day break in the middle of the playoffs. Got to regroup after the most likeable player got eliminated Thursday. Now the best bet is the Canuck Steve Nash. Let's hope he beats the Rapist from L.A.

Reds surging(?), and other thoughts

2010-05-11T14:35:00.007-04:00

Is it possible the Reds can contend? It is mid-May and they sit three games behind the Cardinals and in second place in the Central. They are two games over .500 and on a three game winning streak. Dusty has hovered mostly in the below average-average range with only a few ridiculous moves. I must admit I am pleasantly surprised with how the Reds stand considering they have not played their best baseball. After this weekend they will have played nine games against St. Louis but only three against Milwaukee and Houston combined. The schedule should get a little easier and a nice winning streak could set them up to be buyers rather then sellers come July and August.

Our other national pastime, the Real World/Road Rules Challenge, is back and better then ever. The show is using Fresh Meat, meaning people who have not been a part of either show in the title. Somehow they still managed to find a dozen crazy people that they had not already whored themselves out for their 15 minutes of MTV fame. Where do these people come from? It is a similar plot with Wes and Kenny, the Magic and Bird of these things, going head to head for control of the game. Who will win?(I bet Kenny) Who will get hurt?(most likely a few of the uncoordinated girls thrown in to hook up and be bad at challenges) Who will get an STD?(Can I take all of them) I love this show.

The NBA playoffs have been very boring save for the LeBrons. Boston showed up finally but I have a feeling Stern will make the call that LeBron gets to win the next two games. The league is hemorrhaging money and the only way to get ratings is for LeBron to keep winning. Stern will get his Kobe vs. LeBron this year. Book it.

The NHL continues to be irrelevant. Wake me when it is an overtime game 7. Those are interesting.

Super Saver will be going for the second jewel of the triple crown at Pimlico on Saturday. I think he has a good shot and hope he does because it would make the Belmont much more exciting. If Super Saver were to lose, I bet Lookin at Lucky gets him.

In non-sports news, only ten days until the final LOST episode. The final season has been a bit up and down but last week's really set up what could be an amazing final run. It was a bloodbath with main characters getting killed and others getting set up for a dramatic conclusion. Doc Jensen has it covered for all you LOSTheads.

Boston thoughts

2010-05-08T11:02:00.004-04:00

OK, I know one of my 5 readers is a Boston sports fan but I need to get something off my chest.

I hate 99% of Boston fans.

Let me say it again....I hate 99% of Boston fans.

Maybe it isn't their fault but every time I meet a new Boston fan they act like entitled, righteous, assholes. Their teams are better and more storied and their fans are more numerous, knowledgeable, and just better then everyone else. ESPN feeds into this by constantly talking about their teams. After total Boston homer Peter Gammons left I thought it would get better. What did they do to replace him? Hire both Nomar and Curt Schilling. Awesome. The Red Sox won with the most roided teams ever in 04 and 07. Before and after they have spent like the Yankees and not won anything. The Celtics were handed a championship in 08 thanks to former Celtic Kevin McHale handing them a hall of famer for nothing. Other then that gift, they were irrelevant for 20 years. The Bruins are irrelevant in an irrelevant league. May as well be a WNBA team. I think my hatred of the Shady Brady and Bill Belicheat is well known. They haven't done anything since they were forced to stop cheating. Funny how that works. So these teams are average to above-average at best. What is their reward? ESPN saying Boston is the epicenter of sports thanks to an irrelevant Bruins team playing the same day as an overmatched and bad Celtics team with the just plain bad Red Sox getting ready to get blown out in Fenway to the Yankees.

The fans in Pittsburgh are actually the center of the sports world, and it kills me to say that. They have a bad baseball team too, better hockey team, and better football team. Plus they are only a few hours from LeBron and a real basketball team. I don't remember much coverage of that city on ESPN as the epicenter of sports. Maybe they should hire Mario Lemiuex and Terry Bradshaw as independent analysts.

It wouldn't be so bad if the Boston fans didn't actually believe what they read. ESPN says we are the best so we must be. Well read this: You are not the center of the sports world. Your teams have gotten lucky and/or cheated a few times to make you relevant. Other then that you are an also-ran. You will never be New York so give it up.

Ok, I feel better. Baseball and other talk return next week.

Reds April update

2010-05-04T19:07:00.003-04:00

Well here we stand, 13-13, tied with the Cubs for second in the division, and 5 games behind the Cardinals. Mostly boring and average. Let's see the few things that have stood out, either good or bad.

The Good

Scott Rolen (.259/.337/.481/113 OPS+, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 8 BB/11 K) - He has stayed healthy, playing in 22 of 26 games. He has been solid in the middle of the order, hitting homers and taking a walk when he has to. His defense has been a little below average thus far according to UZR but it is still a small sample size and an improvement over anyone the Reds have had their in the past 5 years.

Joey Votto (.297/.420/.495/140 OPS+, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 20 BB/24 K) - He is always solid and continues to be one of the top 15 first baseman in baseball. His strikeouts are very high but he is hitting well and taking walks when necessary. His defense has been the best on the team thus far which only adds to his value. He is the best player on the team and if he can put a few of those strikeouts in play, he could really put up amazing numbers.

Mike Leake (2-0, 2.94 ERA, 150 ERA+, 22 K/16 BB, 1.307 WHIP, 33.2 IN) - He has been the biggest surprise of the young season. He barely made the team out of spring training but has been the Reds best pitcher by far. He walked 7 his first start and 5 the second but came in with only 4 total in his last 3 starts. The team has rallied around him and everyone has been raving about his mound presence. If Jason Heyward of the Braves wasn't anointed before the season, Mike would be in the running for Rookie of the Year.

The Bad

Aaron Harang (1-4, 6.68 ERA, 66 ERA+, 27 K/ 7 BB, 1.515 WHIP, 33.2 IN) - So much for being the ace of the staff. He has simply given up too many hits and too many runs. He is still getting no run support but even with ample support he would be having a bad season. He is always a trade candidate if the Reds become sellers this summer but no one wants him with those numbers. Let's hope for a turnaround in hist last 30 starts.

Drew Stubbs (.193/.292/.313/60 OPS+, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 SB, 11 BB/27 K) - Bad numbers from any player, especially your leadoff man. His main problem seems to be putting the ball in play. He can take a walk and steal bases but he has way too many strikeouts. If he put half those in play his average would jump into the .250 range and OBP into the .350 range, both good number for a leadoff man. He is still very young but will not be leading off much longer unless he turns it around in May.

Orlando Cabrara (.250/.288/.348/67 OPS+, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 7 BB/12 K) - This is the one that is really frustrating because his backup Janish is hitting very well and plays much better defense. Dusty likes it because of his RBI but that is 1% of the story. The other 99% say that Janish is a better, more patient hitter with a vastly superior glove. Free Janish!

Derby post

2010-05-01T13:14:00.001-04:00

Here is an analysis from my buddy Kyle Kaiman.

Derby, Derby, Derby!

For all the readers out there, hello.

I have been allowed to contribute to this blog even though I am a loud and forever proud Brewers fan – that is how much this blog’s author respects/wants my opinion on the “greatest two minutes in sports.”

For anyone in the Louisville area, the first Saturday in May means only one thing – the Kentucky Derby. Every year, people from across the nation flock to Louisville for this prestigious race. Some people come for the pageantry, some for the hats and others for the celebrities, but I come for one reason only; I want to make money.

This year is no different. Accordingly, I am contributing to the aptly titled firedustybaker.com (Please do not fire him; he is probably the main reason the Brewers beat the Reds.) to impart a little betting knowledge on y’all.

So without further adieu:

As a general rule, a favorite in a horse race wins approximately 33% percent of the time. In a race like the Derby, where there are so many good horses who will not be favored, DO NOT bet the favorite. One can find value in a number of horses for very big odds. For example, on Saturday, take a flier on a horse like Line of David or American Lion. Both horses have won prep races leading up to the Derby (the Arkansas Derby and Illinois Derby, respectively), and both horses will be very long odds. Morning line for both is somewhere near 30-1. That is what is called a value bet.

Since my contribution is not a betting tutorial, nor do I wish to give away all of my betting secrets and strategies, I will keep this relatively short.

Bet a horse because it feels right, not because everyone else is betting it. My advice, however, is go long in this year’s Derby and pick a horse with a big price. There is no bigger thrill than cheering for a winning horse when no one else in the section has him.

Derby Week

2010-04-28T22:17:00.002-04:00

I have been getting ready for the greatest 2 minutes in sports coming up Saturday and recovering from Newman's Day last Saturday. I finished at 11:45 and passed out at 12:15. So worth it.

Not much going on except the Reds are hovering around .500 as they head out to St. Louis this weekend. If they can avoid a sweep I will give you some more Reds talk next week. Should have a Derby breakdown tomorrow from a guest writer. Get excited.

Random Thoughts

2010-04-23T17:13:00.002-04:00

The Reds actually won a series. Do it again against the Padres and I will start getting excited again. Now onto other topics

-The NHL playoffs started. I can only find a few games so I haven't seen much but I finally have a rooting interest. I like Buffalo thanks to American hero Ryan Miller, the goalie from the silver medal team. Go Sabers. I also have a villain and it is the man who beat the US, Sidney Crosby. I hate him and the Penguins. Other then those 2, I will watch whoever is on HD. I cannot watch hockey without it. Hockey and Soccer are both amazing in HD. They are totally different.

-I will watch the NBA playoffs after this round. It is ridiculous that more then half the league makes the playoffs. What is the point of the regular season when just being average is good enough. Once it gets to 8, only the good teams are left. I wait until then.

-I didn't watch one minute of the NFL draft last night and couldn't have been happier. Very few of the players will have an impact next year and none will be heard from for 4 months. Wake me when they put on a jersey

-Tomorrow is Newman's Day. I participated back in college and went 2 for 3. It is a lot of fun and a good excuse to drink heavily and not give away beer. Sorry, I need all 24, can't spare one. Speaking of college....

-Yeah I was a KA. I have no comment on this story.

Enjoy the weekend and let's hope the Reds can take the series from the Padres and get back to .500

New Laptop

2010-04-21T18:48:00.003-04:00

I missed last week after there was a laptop crash. Well I am back with a brand new computer and I must say, they sure have improved in the 3 years it has been since I last bought one. This one has HD capabilities and is ridiculously fast with more memory then I would ever need. I thought about getting an Apple but I didn't want to join a cult. If i wanted to join a cult, I would be a UK fan and live my life through Matt Jones and his fanblog. Boo cults. Yeah freedom. America.

You know what hasn't improved in that time, the Reds. A lost weekend in Pittsburgh really hurt an already struggling team. The Dusty Baker farewell continues this week with a visit from the Dodgers and Padres. I am hoping for .500, but not expecting it.

Will have more Friday once I get more acquainted with my new computer.

Red Recap, weekend wedding

2010-04-09T10:47:00.003-04:00

So the Reds lost 2 of 3 to the Cards. Sounds about right. Carpenter and Wainwright are really good and they do have the best player on the planet. The Cubs come to town after losing 2 of 3 to the Braves. A win in this series would be nice and keep the Reds from digging too deep a hole against division opponents.

I am headed to Chattanooga for a wedding this weekend. The wife is a bridesmaid which means we get to go to all the activities and I get to drink as much as I want without any responsibilities. I even brought the seersucker since it is a week after Easter and always a big hit. As for the wedding gambling, I already took the 6-5 bet that the bride will cry during the vows and the 5-1 bet that a bridesmaid hooks up with a groomsman. Not sure on any other bets as I haven't nailed down the menu or guest list. I am betting on Prime Rib but it may turn out to be chicken and the age range may throw off the 3-1 of a guest puking outside the bathroom. It is a Catholic service so I set the over/under for bride in-bride out at 56 minutes. It will come down to the songs and the babbling priest. Could be close. Either way I get a bunch of free food, free booze, and, o yeah, seeing a few good friends get married. Almost forgot about that. This wedding could be interesting because the groom and his family own a few McDonalds franchises. I expect some burgers and nuggets for the late night drunks at the end of the reception. Maybe even a happy meal or 2.

Have a good weekend and Congrats to the happy couple Leslie and Brad. Look forward to the weekend celebration.

Predictions

2010-04-08T16:45:00.002-04:00

Last season I did pretty well, hitting the Cardinals exactly and picking the Yankees to win the division after missing the playoffs in 08. I also hit both West divisions and got a few records very close. Pay no attention to my playoff picks. They were dreadful.

When picking who will win it all, there is one key question to ask. Will Florida win it? I don't think so. The reason that is important is because if Florida won't win, then you can eliminate the other 14 teams in the bottom half of payroll. Why? Because in the last 17 years, no team other then Florida has won the World Series with a payroll in the bottom half. Only Florida. That is it. So unless they are going to win, you can eliminate half the teams. Sorry Colorado, Cincinnati, etc. You have no chance. Sure some may make the playoffs but the point is to win and none other then the Marlins has. The economics of baseball are terrible but I still watch. I am starting to wonder why.

Ok, off the soapbox. Here are the picks.

NL East
Atlanta Braves 90-72
Philadelphia Phillies 88-74
New York Mets 80-82
Florida Marlins 74-88
Washington Nationals 68-94

The Braves and Phillies should battle all summer but I like the Braves. The Phillies will slow down when they guarantee a playoff spot while the Braves will go all out for the division. The Mets will be better but there are still too many injuries. The Marlins and Nationals will be frisky but still well below .500

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 98-64
Cincinnati Reds 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers 82-80
Chicago Cubs 79-83
Houston Astros 73-89
Pittsburgh Pirates 67-94

The Cards will steamroll everyone. I picked them last year when the Cubs were the consensus. Now they have Holiday, Pujols and two great pitchers. In this division that is plenty. The Reds will be better but miss the playoffs, necessitating a change in manager while maintaining some optimism for next season. The Brewers and Cubs seem like they will hover around .500 most of the season and the Astros and Pirates are terrible.

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73
Colorado Rockies 87-75
Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77
San Francisco Giants 80-82
San Diego Padres 72-90

I expect a great race that goes down to the final weekend. In the end, the Dodgers have better players. I think the Rockies take a step back after the great run last year. The Diamondbacks have the talent and can contend if they stay healthy. The Giants are constantly looking for hitting and never finding it while the Padres are bad but not terrible.

AL East
New York Yankees 93-69
Boston Red Sox 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays 84-78
Baltimore Orioles 74-88
Toronto Blue Jays 66-96

The Yanks and Red Sox continue to exploit the system and win. Awesome. The Rays will be good but an injury will lead to a 3rd place finish since they can't buy their way out of mistakes. The Orioles continue the Reds gameplan of a decade of rebuilding and the Jays got rid of their only good player in Holiday.

AL Central
Minnesota Twins 89-73
Detroit Tigers 86-75
Chicago White Sox 83-79
Cleveland Indians 78-84
Kansas City Royals 69-93

Minnesota has the best hitter in Mauer and the Tigers have the best pitcher in Verlander. Should be a fun ride to see who wins out. I think the Twins have enough to repeat but the Tigers will give them a test. The White Sox should be decent and the Indians, if healthy, will improve. the Royals will not be good for a while.

AL West
Los Angeles Angels 90-72
Seattle Mariners 85-77
Texas Rangers 81-81
Oakland Athletics 68-94

The most unfair division has been dominated by LA and I think it will continue. Seattle was the sleeper team for everyone, which negates them being a sleeper, but I still don't see them scoring enough runs. The Rangers continue improving but still not ready for a jump. Can you name a single player on the A's? I didn't think so.

I will take the Braves and Cardinals to make the NLCS with the Cardinals winning the pennant. I am afraid of Ty Cobb Pujols that much. In the AL I think the Yankees will beat the Red Sox in the ALCS. In the World Series, the Yankees will sweep the Cardinals. 200 Million dollars will do that.

Bullpen Breakdown

2010-04-05T20:04:00.004-04:00

This was written before today's meltdown. My predictions will go up tomorrow.

Mike Lincoln (1-1, 8.22 ERA)
Daniel Ray Herrara (4-4, 3.06 ERA)
Nick Masset (5-1, 2.37 ERA)
Logan Ondrusek (N/A)
Micah Owings (7-12, 5.34 ERA)
Arthur Rhodes (1-1, 2.53 ERA)
Francisco Cordero (2-6, 2.16 ERA, 39 S)

Lincoln is not a good pitcher. He only made the team because he is owed a ton of money. The Reds tried to make him a starter to salvage anything out of him and that failed. Now he will pitch in mostly mop up duty although I am sure Dusty will let him blow a few games along the way.(ed. note: Boy did I not expect that on opening day)

Herrara and Masset both pitched well and should share set-up duties depending on who is due up for the opposition. Both are still under 28 and should continue to improve as they gain experience in the pressure of the 7th and 8th inning.

Ondrusek is the wild card. He tore through the minors last year, going from A ball to AAA and blowing away the hitters at every stage. I hope he can continue to throw smoke and keep hitters off balance until Burton gets straightened out in Louisville. These are the two young arms who could be the Reds closer in 2 years when Cordero's contract finally ends.

Owings, the former starter, is now being used in long relief and should be ready in case a spot start is needed. He seems to have missed his shot at being a full time starter and now needs to learn how to pitch out of the bullpen. I hope he can still hit because he is a nice addition to the bench as a pitch hitter. I could see him being converted to a position player if he struggles again this year.

Rhodes is the old vet of the group. He has been solid since joining the Reds and still is very good against left handers. He is in the last season of his contract and will be in constant trade talk if a contender needs a reliever this summer.

Francisco Cordero is in the 3rd year of his massive 4 year deal. The first two years have worked out well with Cordero being a top 10 closer in the majors. When he was signed, everyone questioned it. So far, it has worked out. The Reds will need it to continue working since they will not blowout many teams meaning Cordero will be called on to deliver in one and two run games often. I think he will be just fine. He has also been very helpful in mentoring the young Latin American players on the team. He has helped Volquez and Cueto in their development and I hope he will do the same with Chapman when he makes it to Cincinnati.

Starting Pitching Breakdown

2010-04-03T12:54:00.004-04:00

The Reds finally made a decision on the 5th starter and it was a surprise. They went with the 2009 first round pick Mike Leake. He has never pitched in the minors. This should be interesting. Let's look at the staff separated into 2 distinct groups:

The Old Guys

Aaron Harang, 32 (6-14, 4.23 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 102 ERA+)
Bronson Arroyo, 33 (15-13, 3.84 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 112 ERA+)

After back-to-back 16 win seasons, Harang has had back-to-back 6 win seasons. His performance has not been as bad as the wins suggest but it has been a little worse. The big win seasons saw his K/BB ratio close to 4. The past 2 years it has been close to 3. In order to turn it around he will need to increase strikeouts and cut down on walks. Sounds simple but is very difficult when you are 32 years old and have over 1300 innings on the arm. I expect him to rebound and win a dozen games or so with an ERA about 3.70. He also needs to stay healthy and get back to pitching 200 innings. Dusty is the main reason for this as I talked about here and here. If Dusty took his hands off him for a full season he could be the top of the rotation guy he used to be.

Bronson does the the same thing every year. It isn't spectacular, it isn't horrendous, it just is. He always throws 200 innings and wins double digit games while losing almost the same. He has a few brilliant efforts, a few catastrophes and a bunch of mediocre outings. One red flag with him is his K/BB ratio dipped below 2. He had been in the mid 2s for the past 3 seasons so he will need to improve on that or he will struggle. Most of this is due to his K/9 rate going from 7.3 to 5.2. That is 2 balls in play that normally would have been strikeouts and over the course of a season, those add up. His BB/9 decreased a little so he will need to continue that while improving his strikeouts. I think he will boost his K/BB back up over 2 and keep cranking out 13-15 wins and 8-12 losses while throwing 200 innings.

The Young Guns

Johnny Cueto, 24 (11-11, 4.41 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 97 ERA+)
Homer Bailey, 23 (8-5, 4.53 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, 95 ERA+)
Mike Leake, 22 (College and Arizona Fall League)

Johnny now has over 340 innings in the big leagues and seems ready to take his place as a solid starter. Last season he was able to drop his H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 from his rookie season. His K/9 also fell slightly but he kept his K/BB over 2. Still very young at 24, he should continue to improve and eventually take over at the top of the rotation if the Reds trade Harang, Arroyo, or both. He will also be a great help with the young Cuban Aroldis Chapman, another young Latin trying to make it in the big leagues with the Reds. I expect a dozen wins and a better ERA and WHIP while improving his K/9 rate. Let's hope Dusty hasn't torn his arm up yet like Volquez. Kind of feels like a ticking time bomb.

Homer Bailey is looking to build of a great finish to last season when he rolled through the final 6 weeks posting a 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA. Sure he faced some bad teams but they were still major leaguers. He has nearly 200 innings and has shown maturity in spring training by pitching well, working hard, and losing the chip on his shoulder he had with the media his first few years. His K/BB ration rose from 1 to 1.6 last season and if he can get that over 2 he will be just fine as the #4 starter. He doesn't turn 24 until May so he is still very young and has plenty of room to grow. I can't wait to see him up in Cincy on a regular basis and I think he will be the breakout star of the Reds rotation, more so then Chapman who still has a lot to learn, baseball and otherwise.

I have no idea what to expect from Leake. I have never seen him pitch but Walt trusts him enough to give him a shot. Dusty is licking his chops at a chance to give another young guy a bunch of innings. To learn more I suggest reading up on him. Here is Cnai.com's take on him getting the spot. Rob Neyer weighs in here. I'm sure more will be written since he won't actually start until April 11 thanks to an extra off day that allows Harang and extra start. I am happy the Reds went with the best pitcher, even if it may cost some money, but still a little worried at a young arm in placed into Dusty's hands. Let's hope this works out but don't be surprised with a DL trip in May or June.

I really like the 5 starters. The two old guys are horses who will take the ball every 5 days and give you above average outings. The young guys can be brilliant and frustrating but there is plenty of room for each to improve. I expect starting pitching to be a strength this season and in the future. There is also Chapman waiting to come up in May or June if something opens due to poor performance or injury. Great to have all these great arms ready to go in Cincinnati.

Left Field Breakdown

2010-04-03T11:54:00.003-04:00

Now that the final cuts are finally made, here is the final position player breakdown.

Vs. RHP Laynce Nix (.249/.300/.502/.802, 15 HR, 43 RBI)
Vs. LHP Jonny Gomes (.307/.369/.545/.914, 5 HR, 19 RBI)

These are only their split stats since I don't see either starting very much against same handed pitchers. Nix is particularly terrible against fellow lefties. I think Dickerson will also platoon with Gomes against right handers but Nix was kept on the team for a reason and I fear Dusty will use him for his mythical veteran presence. Dusty likes his veteranness more then actual performance since Dickerson's OPS is 40 points higher then Nix. Gomes is very good against left handers thanks to his solid power and ability to take a walk if needed. This is why I had him listed in the middle of the order in my post on lineups yesterday. As a platoon these two should be serviceable with the bat and provide enough power to not let left field be a weakness. Neither is a wizz with the glove but are still mobile enough to not be a liability. Juan Francisco made the team and can play leftfield a little but is primarily a third basemen. He will probably be sent down when a fifth starter is needed after the first 10 games. Dusty has a lot of options which means more opportunity to screw it up.

Center Field Breakdown; Lineups

2010-04-02T12:35:00.003-04:00

Drew Stubbs (.267/.323/.439/.762/99, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 10 SB)

After a slow start to his spring training, Drew turned it on and solidified himself as the starting centerfielder. He built on his power surge from last season and if he keeps it up could begin to mirror the other centerfielder in Ohio, Grady Sizemore. While last season's number were from only 200 PA's, he showed he can handle big league pitching. His 50 K's were a little high which was not ideal for a leadoff hitter. This is why I wish Dusty would get off the centerfielder-must-leadoff train and realize he is better suited for the #2 hole when there is a better choice at leadoff. He gets on base enough, has a little pop, and his strikeouts wouldn't be as bad because it means less double plays. Even if he grounds out, he is fast enough to beat out anything that isn't tailor made. The leadoff hitter should be his backup and possible starting leftfielder...

Chris Dickerson (.275/.370/.373/.743/97, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB)

He raised a bit of a fuss early in spring training because the centerfield job was essentially given to Drew without Chris having a chance at it. As spring went along Chris played well, but Drew played better and earned the job. Now Chris is up for the starting leftfield job and should be there anytime a righthander is on the mound. His career OPS is .845 against RHPs. He could also give Stubbs a day off in center if needed.

The leftfield spot isn't quite decided since Dusty decided to wait an extra day to make the cut. He has only had 6 weeks to decide, I'm sure something will change in the next 12 hours. Way to be decisive Dusty.

Lineups

A reader asked what the lineup should look like. Here are the lineups I would use:

Vs. RHP

Dickerson
Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Phillips
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

Votto and Bruce back-to-back would make Dusty's head explode. O MY GOD! 2 Lefthanders in a row! The reality is Votto hits lefthanders about the same as righthanders so if the opposition makes a pitching change it won't affect him, just Bruce, who is improving but still struggles against southpaws. I love this lineup because Dickerson gets on base but doesn't have much power. Stubbs gets on base and has a little more pop plus helps Dusty since it splits up lefthanded hitters. Votto should bat 3rd since he is a machine and Bruce should hit 4th since he has the most pop. In the minors he was a doubles machine and he has found his home run stroke in the bigs. If he were to come up after all those high OBP guys, he would be able to drive them in. The rest of the lineup is pretty much interchangable. This lineup gets the Reds best hitters the most AB's and more chances to drive in runs. That is the goal and how lineups should be set.

Vs. LHP

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Phillips
Gomes
Rolen
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

This is slightly difference but the same principles. High OBP and speed at the top. Stubbs and Bruce don't have as much pop against lefthanders but will still get on base. Votto stays at 3rd but Phillips move up to 4th since he put up.301/.342/.541/.883 against LHPs last season. Gomes starts in leftfield on those days and stays in the middle of the lineup. The other 3 can hit anywhere.

Unfortunately there is no way Dusty would employ these lineups. For some reason, he thinks it always has to be centerfielder-shortstop. No idea why. He did it with Taveras and Gonzalez last season and they were terrible. The only problem with these lineups is that there are 2 lefthanded hitters in a row with Bruce and Votto. This doesn't really matter because Votto his them just fine. Philly has put Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back-to-back and it has worked pretty well. Who would have thought Jerry Manual would be more forward thinking then Dusty Baker. O yeah, everyone is more forward thinking then Dusty Baker.

Right Field Breakdown

2010-03-31T21:30:00.003-04:00

I was going to do the entire outfield but Centerfield and Leftfield aren't set yet. Rightfield is easy.

Jay Bruce (.223/.303/.470/.773/100, 22 HR, 58 RBI)

Jay turns 23 on Saturday and is a cornerstone of the team. That is awfully young to be one of the faces of the franchise but he seems to take it in stride. He injured his wrist last season which limited him to 101 games. Despite the lost time he still hit 22 HRs and drew a decent amount of walks. His batting average is the one area he needs to improve. If he were to hit .270, his OBP would rise to .350. That is respectable for a right fielder and something that would make him a power in the middle of the order thanks to his high slugging. If he stays healthy the entire year I could see 35 HRs and a 140 OPS+, great numbers for a 23 year old, above average right fielder.

Hopefully the Reds will make their final cuts so I can complete the breakdowns.

Shortstop breakdown

2010-03-26T21:46:00.003-04:00

The season is getting close so let's get through these last few positions.

Orlando Cabrera (.284/.316/.389/.705/86, 9 HR, 77 RBI)

Orlando is one of the big offseason acquisitions for the Reds. He started last season in Oakland before being traded to Minnesota at the deadline. He struggled in pitcher friendly Oakland putting up an 81 OPS+ but turned it on in Minnesota posting a 94 OPS+ in the intensity of the playoff race. His defense is about average, nothing flashy but not a liability either. He brings 34 games of postseason experience with him and will help provide some veteran leadership that the Reds desperately need. I expect an improvement in the NL and GAB while maintaining his defense. Overall he is an upgrade over Alex Gonzalez, last seasons starter, and his backup Paul Janish.

Paul Janish (.211/.296/.305/.601/69)

The question with Janish has always been whether he has the bat to make it in the pros. Last season he struggled, hitting 100 points lower in OPS then Cabrara. If he could make up that deficieit he would be considered a solid player. Anything near a 90 OPS+ would be enough to secure the job but I am not sure he can do that. He can get away with his sub par batting because by all accounts he is an amazing shortstop. His range is expansive and he can make any play. There is still a chance he will improve since he is only 26 but that time is running out. For now he will backup Orlando and be ready to step in if there is an injury. I hope he can hit enough to take the job next season because he is a treat to watch with the glove.

Cabrara is the starter and will be given every chance to succeed. His hitting should be improve since he leaves cavernous Oakland in the AL to hitter friendly Great American in the NL. I expect a 95 OPS+ and average defense or let Janish have his chance.

NCAA thoughts

2010-03-24T17:54:00.002-04:00

-I was pretty hit or miss on my picks. I thought the Big East was the best conference and Kansas would roll to the final four. Both horribly wrong. Nova, Louisville, and Marquette were bad and Kansas got caught off guard by UNI. I did pick Michigan State and Xavier to go the sweet 16. I also had Murray State who upset Vandy and came within a minute of moving on so it wasn't all bad. I did one bracket that was the opposite of what I thought and that one is dominating. I had 11 of 16 and still have 7 of 8 in Great Eight and all the final 4. Last year my instincts were right. This year my George Constanza opposite instincts are right. Funny how that happens.

-This weekends games should be fun to watch. UK will blast Cornell Thursday but in the game of life I will take Cornell every time. Their game against WVU should be fun as those are 2 of the 4 best teams left. The midwest region could be a Big Ten rematch with Michigan State vs. Ohio State. Never go against Izzo. Duke looks like they will face a tough test in Baylor but should make a final four for the first time in a decade or so. Would be fun to see them play UK in the final four. All the ghosts of tourny pasts would come out in Indy. In the West, it is a tossup. I think Cuse is the best team but Butler, Xavier and K State are all very similar. I am rooting for Xavier but none of those teams would be a surprise.

-This is some of the best basketball of the year because you have the best teams and the most pressure. Last weekend was about upsets, this weekend is about great basketball. Making the final four is the goal. Once you get there it is just a party so be sure to watch the games Saturday and Sunday. They will be a lot of fun and there will be at least one classic game.

Third Base breakdown

2010-03-22T15:08:00.006-04:00

Sorry this wasn't posted Friday. I drank and watched basketball for 10 hours. It was a glorious day right up until Louisville crapped on the floor.

Scott Rolen (.305/.368/.455/.823/.117, 11HR, 67 RBI)

The key phrase always used with Rolen is "when healthy." When healthy, he is a solid, everyday player. When healthy, he can hit for power, hit for average, and take a walk if needed. When healthy, he is the cornerstone of the infield making plays few others in the game can make and winning gold-gloves. Unfortunately, it keeps coming back to health.

The past 5 years he has played 56, 142, 112, 115, 128 games for an average of 111 games, or 2/3 of a season. If that average were closer to 150, he would be considered a top 25 player. Last season, almost immediately after he was acquired he was hit in the head and suffered a concussion causing him to miss 16 days. There is nothing he could have done about it, other then duck sooner, but nonetheless these things seem to follow him. He is like a third base version of Ken Griffey Jr.

The Reds extended his contract for 2 additional years in exchange for him taking a pay cut this year. That money was used to sign some Cuban, which looks to be good, but Rolen's chance of being a healthy contributor when the deal ends in 2013 is unlikely. At least the Reds seem to be trying to win now.

The other thing Rolen supposedly brings is clubhouse leadership. He is a 13-year veteran with 32 games of postseason experience including a world series win in 2006 with some team a few hours west. He is a big, commanding presence and could really help some of our young superstars like Bruce and Votto.

If he stays healthy, he can bat behind Votto, giving him some protection, and give the Reds a right hand power bat they have been lacking for years. If he gets hurt again, he will be an expensive DL player. One of the Reds best prospects is Juan Francisco, a young third basemen who can crush the ball. He also happens to strike out a lot and doesn't walk, not a good combination. In his cup of coffee last September, he did pretty well but it was only a few dozen at bats. He could make the team as a backup third basemen/left fielder or he could also be sent to Louisville to learn plate discipline and wait on a Rolen injury. The likely everyday backup is Aaron Miles, who can play basically any position but none very well.

No matter what happens, this position is an upgrade over Edwin Encarnacion and his "potential" that was never realized.

Will have another post this week about the crazy weekend of college basketball and maybe one after watching Chapman pitch tonight on FSN Ohio. He should start pitching in the 6th or about 5:30

March Madness is here

2010-03-16T12:03:00.007-04:00

The greatest weekend in sports is upon us. Boy do I love me some NCAA Tournament. Imagine if they had one in football? Sounds boring to me too. Here are some thoughts on the upcoming basketball bonanza.

-For those wondering what the schedule of games is, what games you get in your area, and who the announcers are going to be, here is the perfect site.

-Everyone fills out a bracket and no one cares about anyone's but their own so please don't talk about it. We don't want to know. "O, you picked all the 1 seeds. O you picked your favorite team? How original? How long did it take to come up with that, 5 seconds? Let me give you a cupcake."

-Having said that (why can't Curb Your Enthusiasm have Jerry and Larry on all the time), my wife picked hers and it had 2 upsets in the sweet 16, Xavier as a 6 and Michigan state as a 5. The other 14 were seeded 1-4. Her final 8 was all 1 and 2 seeds and the final four was all 1 seeds. She is quite the risk taker. I guess she used up all her risk taking when she agreed to marry me. Doesn't get any riskier then that.

-Here are how I pick brackets. First I take the teams I know to be good because I watched them and put them through. If I see 2 teams I don't know, I look at the conference. For example, Kentucky is good. I hate them but they are good. Move along. Texas and Wake Forest are 2 teams I haven't seen much but I know the Big 12 was above-average and the ACC was below average. Texas moves on. I also look at coaching. Tom Izzo scares the life out of me. Always has. That is why the one team I didn't want my team, Louisville, to play last year was Michigan State. Sure enough they were the 2 and Lousiville was the 1. Things didn't turn out well for the Cards. Other coaches I love are Jay Wright at Nova, Bo Ryan at Wisconsin, Tubby Smith at Minnesota, Jamie Dixon at Pitt, Bill Self at Kansas, and Kevin Stallings at Vandy. These are guys that can win games most coaches can't. On the flip side their are coaches who lose games they should win. Coaches such as John Caliperi at UK, Rick Barnes at Texas, Paul Hewitt at GT, Bob Huggins at WVU, Bruce Pearl at Tennessee, and John Thompson III at Georgetown. These must be taken into account. Another thing I look for is NBA talent on underachieving teams. Georgia Tech is the poster child for this. These are players that could be 1st round picks seeded 4 or higher and they know this could be the last game in front of pro scouts so they better step it up. This works well in College Football Bowl Games but those games don't matter and these do so it isn't as big but it is something I consider.

-Quick breakdown of the Midwest region. Kansas, Kansas, Kansas. Rolls to the final four. They are the best team in the country and have been all year. It would take a total fluke for them to lose before Indy. The only way is if they get a tough game next weekend against Michigan State or Maryland then have to play 48 hours later against Georgetown or Ohio State. Those are 4 of the top 20 teams in the land playing as hard as they can to take down the kings of basketball. Could be tough. Elsewhere I see this playing close to form with Georgetown and Ohio State playing on the bottom half and Kansas and Michigan State on the top. I know the 2 best conferences are the Big East followed by the Big 12 so I have Kansas-Georgetown in the Great 8. You will see this theme again.

-In the West I like a few upsets. Syracuse loses in the Great 8 to Kansas State in another Big East-Big 12 matchup. I like Xavier advancing to play Kansas State in the sweet 16. Why is Xavier overlooked so often? They have won 6 tournament games the past 3 years and should have had more if the refs didn't protect Greg Oden and OSU in 2007. They played in a good conference, certainly as good as the Pac-10 and maybe SEC, and have a few NBA caliber players. Look out for them. On the top half I could see Cuse playing any of the 4 teams from Vandy-Murray St-UTEP-Butler. Those teams are identical. I suspect that will be the site of some upsets. Let's go with Murray St. Western KY did it from that spot a few years ago and Murray is located only a few hours from there. Kansas State should make the final four after beating Xavier and Cuse next weekend.

-The East could also see some upsets because of the level of talent. Kentucky has the best team money can and did buy but are they prepared? They played 2 games against teams seeded 1-5, both against Vandy. In order to win the region they would have to beat 3 teams in a row that are better then Vandy. Tall order for a team starting a bunch of freshman who play emotionally, and know the second they lose they start collecting huge money from sponsors, agents, etc. Not saying it won't happen but don't be surprised if they lose a round or two early. Caliperi has done that a few times. Wisconsin is a good team and should make the sweet 16 and test the University of Memphis at Lexington with physical, intimidating basketball. I see the bottom half as Big East heavy with Marquette and West Virginia both making the Sweet 16. I like West Virginia over Wisconsin in the Great 8.

-My homerism really comes out in the South region. I like Louisville to upset Duke and here is why: Louisville can play with anyone. They beat Cuse twice, beat WVU but the refs blew it(the apology from the Big East officials almost made up for it), had Nova on the ropes and even took a lead against UK in the second half in Rupp Arena. The other reason is Duke will only have 1 day to prepare for Louisville's zone and press, something no other team plays. Duke struggled away from Cameron and got embarrassed when playing Georgetown and their physical Big East style. I like the Cards for those reasons, but then again, I am a homer. For the rest of the bracket I like Texas A&M, another solid Big 12 team, to beat the Cards and make the great 8 against Nova, who dispatches Baylor. Nova then wins to make the final four.

-In the final four, I think Kansas beats K State on the Big 12 side and West Virginia beats Nova on the Big East side. Rock, chalk, Jayhawk in the finals. I know everyone is picking them but I am going with the best team. So sue me.

-

Second Base Breakdown

2010-03-12T17:57:00.004-05:00

Brandon Phillips (.276/.329/.447/.776/102, 20 HR, 98 RBI, 25 SB)

Phillips had a solid 2009 thanks to his hitting and defense. He did not win another gold glove but did finish above average in the defensive metrics. His hitting had improved as he has adjusted to being an everyday player. His walks have gone from 33 to 39 to 44 which shows he is becoming more patient at the plate. If he can get that number over 50 and continue hitting at .275 his OBP would be up to .345, a very good number for a second basemen playing great defense. His K's have also fallen the past 3 years from 109 to 93 to 75. All these are signs of a hitter coming into his own. He is only 28 and still in his prime for a few more years so he can continue to be a conrnerstone of the franchise. His backup will probably be Aaron Miles or Drew Sutton, both competing for the super-sub role. Brandon's future with the club is still somewhat of a mystery.

He makes $6.75 million this year, $11 million next year and a $12 million dollar team option for 2012. At the time it seemed reasonable but now that $11 million is way too high and the $12 million will never be touched. He wants to be a leader but it doesn't appear his teammates have totally bought in. The Reds will have to monitor how he is in the locker room to determine if he is someone they want to keep around or trade for minor leaguers and promote one of the top prospects to 2nd base. Getting all or even part of that 11 million in 2011 off the payroll would provide some financial relief, something always important to the bottom 15 payrolls who have no chance of winning the world series. His situation could get interesting if the Reds are out of it at the deadline and someone needs a solid 2nd basemen. Some of our best prospects are younger, cheaper, and can play 2nd. I hope he stays but wouldn't be shocked to see him traded in July for a prospect and financial relief.

Links to real writing

2010-03-09T13:49:00.007-05:00

I know this is where you go for real journalism so here are a few well written, well researched, and overall amazing pieces of writing I have read the past few weeks. I implore my readers to read at least one. Try and get through them all. They are long but worth it.

-A fantastic look at Roger Ebert from Esquire. This has been going around for a while and there is a reason for it. It is really good. The picture is shocking because he had his jaw removed after cancer was found but the description of his daily life is inspiring. His blog is also good at http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/. Will Leitch has his own Ebert story here in which he apologizes for being an ass. One journalist down, 1,000 more to go for Leitch.

-My favorite author, and one of the best writers in America, Michael Lewis comes out and hits another home run. I could read this guy describe paint dry. This one is and excerpt from his new book on the fall of the economy is 2008. The piece describes a guy who foresaw the first housing decline in 70 years and made tons of money. Pretty amazing stuff if you take the time to read it.

-Couldn't get through one of these without a link to the best sportswriter around Joe Posnanski. This one is even better because it is about the Reds' new pitching sensation Aroldis Chapman. He says they hype is justified. I am really hoping Dusty is gone before his arm is ruined.

-For all those Facebook addicts, this is who is profiting off your wasted time. Our fellow (former?) writer Tom Tremendous knows first hand since he was there and this story is what actually happened. Short version: He stole the idea from people who hired him to do the programming.

-Nice article on Bobby Gonzalez in the New York Times. He is considered the biggest ass in the Big East and I can only imagine this will help as he prepares for the Big East Tourny in MSG. Good luck Bobby.

-SI's Don Banks goes after Quarterback Kobe Rothlisberger. I love watching Steelers fans get knocked down a peg almost as much as I like watching UK fans get knocked down a peg. Don't pretend you are better then every other team because you aren't, you are just like every other team, winning is all that matters, tradition and character be damned.

-Get ready for LOST tonight. Only 10 left...

-And finally, hope everyone saw the Syracuse-Louisville game. If not you can read about it here, here, or here, or check out this picture which pretty much sums it up.

First Base Breakdown

2010-03-05T13:06:00.004-05:00

Joey Votto (.322/.414/.567/.981/155 OPS+ in 544 PA's. 25 HRs, 84 RBIs, and 38 2Bs)

Those are damn good numbers especially for a 25 year old who was also dealing with the loss of his father and other issues. After missing a week in May and three weeks in June to deal with those issues, he managed to return and play at the same high level. Let's hope this season he can stay on the field and put up solid numbers again. He should get a chance to play everyday if he is healthy. His backups will be various OF's or utility players who need a few AB's when Joey is off.

His nearest competition for the everyday job raises an interesting question on the Reds future. The development this spring is what do you do when your best prospect, Yonder Alonso, happens to play the same position as your best everyday player, Joey Votto. Does one find a new position? If so, which one? Does one get traded? If so which one?

On the one hand, Alonso has been working in the outfield and third base at times in Arizona but most scouts feel he can only play first due to his big build and lack of speed and agility. He will be a 1B/DH type and there is no sense in him learning other position if he will never see time there. That time would better be spent hitting and learning 1B.

On the other hand, Joey is a 1B. He may have the speed and agility to play LF but why would he move there? He has worked hard at first base and become above-average so why should he have to learn a new position, especially if it may effect his hitting? He has proven he can be an everyday 1B thanks to his quality hitting and improved defense. He is also the best position player and a team leader. Those players don't like to move positions (see Jeter, Derek)

The Reds are in a bit of a pickle on this one. Both players are still young and inexpensive so there is no pressing monetary reason for them to act now. However, Joey starts arbitration next season and Alonso cannot be in the minors past 2011 so it is either this season or next season when something must be done. Both have high trade values but it would be difficult to get equal value in return since the other teams are in the position of power knowing the Reds have to trade one player. I think they should try and lock up Votto for 4 or 5 years at a low salary, as most teams do with cornerstone players. (Longoria, Upton, Braun) If that happens then you show Alonso off at AAA then trade him for a stud SS prospect, stud Catching prospect, or a power hitting LF. Those are the 3 areas the Reds have the most need. If Votto doesn't want a deal or one can't be agreed on, trade him next season before he starts making big money and give Alonso the everyday 1B job. I just don't see a way for both to be on the field at the same time unfortunately.

If I were the Reds, Alonso is too much of a wild card. I make sure I can lock up Votto and trade Alonso this season. Once I get a nice return for him, I have Votto sign for 4 or 5 years, taking him to 30, and worry about the rest of the team. If Alonso becomes a star somewhere else it won't be so bad because he wouldn't have played here anyway.

1B should not be a cause for concern for the Reds until 2015 thanks to the great depth. The key is turning that great depth into other pieces that will help the rest of the team.

TV Talk

2010-03-02T21:25:00.004-05:00

Back to the Reds position breakdown Friday. For now, I will talk about the TV I am watching.

Saturday & Sunday

-Sports (all networks, all day)

Pretty simple. This is the time you watch football, basketball or baseball and sleep to golf or nascar. The only non-sports show worth watching is Saturday Night Live which is good about one out of every four now that Will Farrell is gone. I miss him. I need more cowbell!

Monday

-How I Met Your Mother (CBS 8:00)

I was skeptical of this show because CBS always shoves it down our throats during NFL games but after watching it for a while I came to appreciate it. The writing is great and Doogie Howser and the tall guy from Knocked Up are funny. The problem is the main character is the least funny character so they have to write around him. Not sure how long they can keep that up but I will keep watching for now. It gave us the greatest joke ever: What's the difference between Peanut Butter and Jam? (Answer at the end)

-Greek (ABC Family 10:00)

It is on ABC Family which isn't the best but it is about college kids who drink and hook up, not what you would expect. The writing is good and the situations are as close to real greek life as I have seen in a TV show. The problem is it has been going for a while so the characters are supposed to be 22 but look 30. That and they need fresh characters. I think this show is about to hit a wall. Easter Egg: The main character looks hot at first until you realize she is Kelsey Grammer's daughter. Then all you can think of is that she is Fraiser with tits. Scary.

Tuesday

-LOST (ABC 9:00)

The best show on TV right now. Nothing else to say. I will miss it when it is gone.

Wednesday

-Modern Family (ABC 9:00)

The best new show on TV because it is the best written show on TV. It has the deadpan interview setup of The Office and the dysfunctional family aspect of Arrested Development. Al Bundy is the dad with a new Colombian wife and her ten year old who acts 40. The second couple is Al's daughter with 3 teenage kids and a husband going through a midlife crisis. He is inappropriate and awkward, like Michael Scott mixed with Buster Bluth. The final couple is Al's gay son and his partner who recently adopted a Chinese baby. Every couple is hilarious and their interactions are priceless. A must watch every week.

-Cougartown (ABC 9:30)

Yeah, I know, Courtney Cox is old and not funny. True. But every time I think I am out there comes at least 3 moments when I laugh out loud. Her ex-husband on the show is great and really the only reason I watch. First on the chopping block if I cut one but I will always give a show a season to work the kinks out.

Thursday

-Community (NBC 8:00)

Rough start but has come on strong the second half. Aved and Troy are the best characters and have gotten more attention now that they have stopped focusing on the will-they-wont-they of Jeff and the blond chick. Chevy Chase is unfunny but doesn't ruin it. I think the show has potential and I am glad they worked out the early problems.

-Parks and Recreation (NBC 8:30)

The first season was mediocre but this one has been amazing. I have never seen a show make the tournaround this one has. If it were a baseball player, everyone would be making PED jokes. The writing has been brilliant and the cast has really come together. The interactions make for plenty of awkward and uncomfortable scenes which I love. If you didn't like the first season, I implore you to try again. You will not be disappointed.

-The Office (NBC 9:00)

The show is still going strong. After Jim and Pam got together I thought the show was done but they have kept it going. The wedding episode was great and now they are having a baby. I think the show is starting to get redundant but I have thought it was done before. Still one of the best and, while not every episode is a home run, most are still above average.

-30 Rock (NBC 9:30)

Not sure what to make of this show. The last two seasons were amazing but this one isn't quite on that level. That doesn't mean it isn't one of the best on TV because it is. I am just worried it is on the way down instead of the way up. 30 Rock has earned a must watch but unless it picks it up the next few episodes, it will fall to the 3rd or 4th best Thursday night show. I still have hope it will turn around. Also, Alec Baldwin is amazing and the best character on any show. He makes it worth watching.

Friday

-Friday Night Lights (NBC)

This show will get its own post at some point. I know people always tell you its great and it gets so annoying that you don't want to watch it for spite but please don't do that. It is worth it. These people are right and you will regret not watching it.

Those are what you should watch. All 3 of you.

Answer to the joke: I can't Peanut Butter my dick in your ass

Catcher Preview

2010-02-26T22:04:00.003-05:00

I planned on writing about the Olympic hockey semifinals but neither is all that interesting so I will begin my Reds preview. Today it is the Catchers.

Ramon Hernandez

-2009 stats (avg/obp/slg/ops/ops+) .258/.336/.362/.699/84, 81 games, 5 HR, 37 RBI

Ramon is 33 years old and on a steady decline. His OPS+ has gone from 111 to 88 to 87 to 84. He is a nice insurance policy for this season but Ryan Hanigan should be the full time starter by July. Ramon was injured last season and only managed 330 PA's but was passable when in the lineup. For some reason Dusty loves him. I am guessing it has something to do with his speaking spanish which comes in handy with our latin heavy pitching staff. This season he should transition to a backup and allow Hanigan to take over.

Ryan Hanigan

2009 stats.263/.361/.331/.692/84, 90 games, 3 HR, 11 RBI

Ryan is only 29 and should get his opportunity this season. Both players are essentially the same except one is on the decline and the other is in his prime and hungry to make an impression. Dusty doesn't like him because he isn't "clutch" or a "run-producer," two terms that are impossible to quantify. His RISP stats were bad but the sample size was tiny. Over a full season they should balance out and he will be just fine. His defense is also much better then Ramons. Let's hope Dusty gets his head out of his ass and let's Ryan have his chance to be an everyday catcher.

Wilkin Castillo

He is a utility player who can also catch. He should not get a start unless it is an emergency.

That is the catcher breakdown. Here's hoping Hanigan gets his shot and thrives. I am a big fan because I can yell his name with a drunken slur like an irishman. Cheers young Hanigan. Erin Go Bragh.

Little late but here are some links

2010-02-24T12:09:00.002-05:00

I blame LOST for the lateness of it. It is only an hour show but takes at least 12 hours to digest it and even then i don't understand half of it. Here are a few interesting links I came across:

-For LOST fans, you must read Doc Jensen. He does recaps and previews of all things LOST and they are amazing. Not sure what he will do when it ends but for know he is a must read every week.

-Two of my favorite things are coming together: Maker's Mark and the 1990 World Champion Cincinnati Reds

-C. Trent continues his great work on the Reds. Nice to have good writers for this mess of a team. Some great Dusty quotes. Savor them because this will be his last spring training.

-At least the Reds aren't the Royals. They are dealing with a hot dog shooting lawsuit.

-How about 'Merica? Glad we beat America Jr. in hockey. Too bad NBC hates sports and sent it to their non-HD channel in favor of Ice Dancing. It makes sense. Let's put the one game everyone cares about in the one sport that must be in HD on our crappy non-HD channel and put the least exciting category of the most boring sport that looks the same on any TV in HD. I can't figure out why NBC is 4th in the rating with brilliant decisions like that. Apparently I am not alone in my hate for NBC's coverage.

-As March madness gets closer, here is a link that will get you excited about it and waste a ton of time.

-Finally, ladies take note. This is what you do when a man proposes to you. I knew I liked Hilary Duff for some reason

Reds, Olympics, college basketball

2010-02-19T14:13:00.005-05:00

-Spring training has started. For constant updates I recommend C. Trent Rosecrans at CNati.com or John Fay at the Cincinnati Enquirer. They are both on site in Arizona and are posting updates and pictures from the new complex in Goodyear. Seeing green grass and blue skies after the winter we have had makes me wish spring were here right now. Alas, we still have 5 weeks.

-In the meantime we have the Olympics to keep us occupied. The reason the Olympics are so popular is because there is a clear good guy and a clear bad guy. America is of course the good guy and everyone other country is the bad guy. Not all bad guys are created equal. Some evoke more hate then others. Here is a quick list of countries I root against most, starting with most hated:

France-people are mean even though we bailed them out of 2 world wars. Instead of rolling out the red carpet for Americans, they treat us as second class citizens. Hey, you would be speaking German if not for us. How bout a few bottles of wine on the house Pierre?
Russia-We hated them for 50 years and old habits die hard. The Winter Olympics really bring it out because they mention the Miracle on Ice ever 10 seconds. By the way, who won that Cold War? That's what I thought.
China-I fear they will rise in coming Olympics, mainly because their country is a rising world power. France and Russia are pretty much the same as they were a decade ago but China is totally different. In 10 years they will probably win everything and own everything. I am starting the hate early.
Germany-You would think the country that started 2 world wars and slaughtered millions would be higher but what can I say, I enjoy beer and so do they.
Everyone else-no one else really raises my ire. The Scandinavians seem harmless and America Jr.(Canada) is too nice.

-The college basketball regular season is winding down as we sit 3 weeks from conference tourney week. Kansas looks like the best team barring a major collapse. Kentucky looks good but hasn't played a good team all year thanks to a weak SEC again. The top of the Big East is wearing each other out but should still be ready to take over March again. The rejuvenated Big 10 has potential but needs to prove someone besides Michigan State can win in the tournament before they can be trusted.

Have a good weekend, be safe, and stay away from girls with big hair.

Baseball is back and so am I

2010-02-17T15:22:00.006-05:00

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow. The wait is over.

I am calling this season the Dusty Baker Farewell Tour. Why is it his farewell tour? Let me explain:

He is in the final year of his contract, meaning no future monetary commitments (a big deal for a cash-strapped franchise)
The organization has upgraded signifcantly at SS, 3B, and CF since last seasons opening day (I can't believe Taveras is gone)
3 years is enough time to judge(although I saw this coming after 2 months)
The young core is ready and cheap, which will not last so they cannot waste another year of Votto/Bruce/Cueto/Volquez earning less then 2 million each
The fans are antsy and the Reds can't go another decade without the playoffs (hell the Bengals have made it twice since the Reds last made it)
The division is ripe for the taking (The Cubs/Pirates/Astros/Brewers all downgraded in talent while the Cards stayed the same and are one big injury from trouble)

This means either he makes the playoffs, meaning he finishes above two of the Cubs/Cards/Brewers trifecta (he hasn't beaten any of the three the past two years), or he is gone. A reasonably competent manager would win 85 games or so with this talent. Too bad Dusty is nowhere near reasonably competent. I see 80 at most, which puts us in 3rd, making him toast.

So, without further ado, let the Dusty Baker Farewell Tour begin.

I have changed strategies this season. My posts will be more consistent, but not as frequent(that is, unless they win or i get more free time). I will commit to a post every Friday and Tuesday. Other posts will come based on my availability, interest, and imagination. Just warning all 3 of you readers ahead of time.

Baseball Thoughts

2009-09-03T10:47:00.003-04:00

Another lost season kept me away in August. Hey, at least it lasted that long. Here is what you may have missed.

-The Reds need Scott Rolen to stay healthy. I know that is like asking PacMan Jones to stay out of strip clubs or Brett Farve to stay retired but it is true. The Reds are 11-4 when he has played, all 4 losses coming to playoff contending LA and Colorado. If he stays healthy next year, an enormous if, the Reds could be good. Unfortunately, here are his total games played the last 5 years: 56, 142, 112, 115, 102, and probably about 120 this year. He also turns 35 around opening day next year. I hope he stays healthy because his OPS+ has still been 107 and 118 the past 2 years and his defense is an A-, much better then anyone playing third since Chris Sabo. I am not optimistic he can stay off the DL though.

-Dusty has completed his dismantling of the once promising starting staff. Volquez had Tommy John Surgery and is done until late 2010. Cueto is on the DL and has not been himself since May. Harang, who was ruined last season in the 18 inning San Diego game (the game that revived this blog), was ruined on almost the exact same day this season when Dusty sent him out after a rain delay of over two hours in order to get one more out, and thus a win. He was 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA at that point. After, he was 1-10 with a 4.80 ERA and his OPS against has jumped 100 points. Awesome. Now he is done for the season because his appendix burst. I bet he did it to himself in order to avoid Dusty's torture. If Homer Bailey is smart, he will lay low until Dusty is gone or he is a free agent. Save yourself Homer!

-The Reds field a minor league team every day. Currently, the Reds are starting 2 players that would actual start on a contending team, Votto and Phillips. The other 6 are bench/role players or rookies who have potential. Dusty loves role players and cast offs. Reminds him of where he will be next year. If you were the manager and the season was clearly lost, wouldn't you play the rookies to let them learn? Wouldn't any sane person? You would think. But you would be wrong. Dusty played Willy Taveras and his 45 OPS+ at the top of the order up until he got hurt. Alex Gonzalez and his 43 OPS+ continued to play and bat second until he was traded. Now that they are gone, Dusty has been forced to play Janish, a defensive whiz who is starting to hit better after Dusty sat him for all but 3 games in July and killed any confidence he had, and Drew Stubbs, who is another defensive whiz and should start everyday in 2010. Other then that, it is pretty boring. Injuries have been everywhere. I'm sure that is what Dusty will blame. Good teams overcome them, bad teams blame them. Guess which one the Reds are?

-There is still a chance the Reds could get to 4th, or even third place. They currently sit 3 games out of 4th and 4.5 games out of third. They have 6 games remaining against the Pirates and 6 against Houston. Take 9 of those 12 and it could happen. Lose and maybe Dusty will get fired. Then again, maybe not.

Another post later on the return of football.

I can't resist

2009-07-31T13:15:00.001-04:00

O who am I kidding, I love this.

Almost made it to August

2009-07-24T10:43:00.004-04:00

Well the Reds managed to hang around until nearly August. Not bad. Usually June is the last month to care about the team but this time they managed to make it a little longer. While still only 5.5 games back, they sit in 5th place. They would need 4 teams to tank worse then they have already and that ain't happening. Not long ago I wrote that the easy part of the schedule was over and they would need to pick it up or be left in the dust. That was before Albert Pujols ended the Reds season with one swing of the bat. Since he hit that grand slam, the Reds are 5-12. Barring a 6 game winning streak, the Reds will once again be sellers at the July 31st trading deadline. Maybe next year.

If they are trading players, here is who they should get rid of:

David Weathers-He has been above-average since joining the team which is better then most thought. His last 4 seasons with the Reds he has put up an ERA+ of 132, 130, 139, 149. Would be a nice get for any contending team looking for an extra arm in the bullpen. I wouldn't mind keeping him around but he is a free agent at the end of the year so we might as well get something for him now.

Arthur Rhodes-Has an amazing 264 ERA+ and 0.99 WHIP. Left handers are hitting a ridiculous .118/.193/.137 for an OPS+ of -5. That is unbelievable. Any team needing a LH reliever would be hard pressed to find one better then Arthur. Should fetch some nice prospects.

Bronson Arroyo-Always thrown around in trade talks, his recent scoreless streak has certainly helped. Any team needing a reliable starter would want him. You know what you are getting and he does have postseason experience. The only hangup could be his salary which has 2 more years at 10 million per. A big market team wouldn't flinch but mid to small market teams can't add that money. Depends on how desperate teams get.

Aaron Harang-I keep hearing his name but I don't think it will actually happen. He is a staple here in Cincinnati and is making a nice chunk of change at 12 million per year. It would take a strong offer to make a deal and I don't see any team that desperate right now.

As for the rest, Cordero makes too much money at 12 million per year and none of our position players are good and available. Maybe Hernandez before he got hurt but not now. I imagine the Reds will move one of the relievers by July 31 and maybe Arroyo after. You have to remember the July 31st deadline is a mirage. Players can be traded until August 31st if they clear waivers and with this economy, most non-superstar players will clear. Dunn and Griffey were both traded after July 31st last season. Look for more movement in August. Until then, let's whip the Cubs this weekend just to shove it those obnoxious fans' faces.

Took a bad turn in June

2009-07-01T15:31:00.005-04:00

Finally that month is over. The Reds limped through it. Now they face a pretty daunting July and unless the offense improves, it will be the nail in the coffin.

Thanks to a crappy division, the season isn't over yet. The Reds are only 2 games behind the Cardinals for second and 4 behind the Brewers for first. Somehow they are still leading the Cubs by half a game. Shows how bad they have been. Let me show you the gory June stats first, then I will show that the upcoming schedule makes it likely that the Reds will plummet if they continue at this pace.

June stats

-As a team, the Reds went .229/.300/.349/.649 for an OPS+ of 78 and good enough for dead last in the majors. Let me repeat. DEAD LAST IN ALL OF BASEBALL. To put it in perspective, Alex Gonzalez has a career OPS+ of 78. The entire team was a weak hitting SS for an entire month. Wily Taveras had an OPS of .375. That should be is on base percentage, NOT his on base percentage PLUS slugging. Alex Gonzalez was .488. Hariston was .537. Hernandez was .597. You get the picture. Those are Corey Patterson numbers and loyal readers know how I feel about Corey.

-How did they go 11-15 in June? I wondered the same thing. It wasn't really the starting pitching either. Their ERA was at the bottom of the pack at 13th in the NL and WHIP was 15th. Arroyo had a 6.82 ERA and the Maloney/Volquez/Bailey combo was about 6.00. The relief pitchers were certainly an asset, posting the 2nd best WHIP and 4th best ERA in the NL. That has been the strength for the past few years. Another big factor, defense. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) the Reds are the 5th best defensive team in baseball(#2 in the NL). Last season they were 27(#15 in NL). But defense can only go so far in one month. What is the real reason? It all came down to the schedule. The teams they played just weren't good. Cleveland, Washington, and Atlanta are pretty bad. The best team they faced were the 4 games over .500 Blue Jays. Unfortunatly, those easy days are over.

July schedule

-The Reds have 2 more games against lowly Arizona. Need to win those because it may be a while until the Reds get another one. The final 10 games before the All-Star break are home for 3 with STL, 4 @Phi, 3@NYM. All 3 of those teams are over .500. After the break, the Reds host Mil for 4, go for 3 @LAD, then 3 @ CHC. Those teams are a combined 25 games over .500. The last games of the month consist of 4 at home to the Padres, the team that swept the Reds in May and one against the surging Rockies. WOW. If the team from June plays those 27 games as they did the previous 26, they won't go 11-15. They will go 2-25.

-the only reason for optimism is this: Votto is back and rounding into form. Edwin is on the brink of a return any day now. Volquez is back throwing after a setback and could rejoin after the All-Star game. Also, could they really hit any worse? I don't know if it is possible and I shutter to think what it would look like if they did. The easy part is over for the Reds and the made-or-break month is upon us. Let's get the starting pitchers back on track and the bats on fire. Otherwise, it turns into "Wait till next year."

Turning point

2009-06-23T08:47:00.005-04:00

The Reds have reached a turning point in the season. They have managed to stay at .500 while Votto, Edwin, and Volquez have been on the DL. Now it seems that Votto will return tonight, Edwin is rehabbing in Louisville and Volquez should be ready in 2 weeks. Now is the time for the Reds to make a run. They have a series at Toronto, at Cleveland and home to Arizona. 6-3 is the goal for those 9 games because the final 10 before the All-Star game will be tough. The Reds host 3 against St. Louis, then travel for 4 at Philly and 3 at the Mets. A 5-5 split would be great but very difficult. This makes the next 9 a necessity. Let's review what has happened the past few weeks:

Positives:

Ryan Hanigan. Since Joey began to have his issues in May, Ryan has started 30 games and has put up a .312/.397/.385/.782 with only 9 K's in 109 PA's. He seems to be improving and is at the top of the NL in almost all rookie categories. This should ensure him more playing time once Votto returns and Hernandez is available. Not so fast. Dusty seems to think Hernandez will go back behind the plate and Hanigan will be on the bench. Awesome. Dusty does it again.

Bullpen. The bullpen has been amazing. Weathers, Rhodes, and Cordero have been unhittable. Masset showed he is human by allowing a few runs but he has still been well above average. These 4 guys have allowed the Reds to win some close games that, in years past, the Reds would have blown. It is nice to not be nervous in the 7th-9th innings.

Negatives:

So many let me just run through them quick. The big 3 of Taveras (44 OPS+), Gonzalez (45 OPS+), and Rosales (51 OPS+). That is 3 terrible bats in the lineup almsot every day. 38% of the lineup is pitiful. How did they win any games? Cueto has given up 5 runs in the past 2 games including blowing a 5-0 lead against the White Sox Saturday night. Matt Maloney was a nice story but in his 3 starts he is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 73 ERA+.

Outlook: The Reds have reached the turning point. They are 34-34, 17-17 at home and 17-17 on the road. They either turn it on and get 4 or 5 games above .500 and in place to make a run at the postseason or they falter, lose 4 or 5 in a row and become sellers after the All-Star break. I hope getting healthy will lead to a run.

Treading Water

2009-06-03T21:03:00.002-04:00

A sweep in Milwaukee, DL trips for our 2 best players in 2008, could it get any worse? I sure hope not. Right now the Reds need to tread water and stay above .500 until they get healthy. Votto is gone for at least 2 weeks, maybe longer. No one is saying what the stress-related, personal issue is but it sounds bad if they won't say what it is. The Reds have said it is related to his dizziness from earlier in the month. Volquez pitched one inning in his return before going back on the DL with tingling in his fingers, probably related to the back spasms that put him on the DL originally. That would mean a month without last years best position player and best pitcher. Thank goodness for Phillips' tear in May, going .352/.392/.682/ with 7 HR and 29 RBI. Another player that has been coming up big is Ramon Hernandez. He is currently at .282/.346/.380 for an 88 OPS+, but hit .313/.383/. 419 with 19 RBI in May as well. As I write this the Reds are leading the Cards 3-0 in the 3rd. If they can win tonight, they are assured a split in St. Louis before returning home for 3 against he Cubs. They should be 28-24 after tonight, thus assuring at least .500 after the next 4 games. Let's hope they can stay in the 3-5 games above for the next 2 weeks until Votto and Edinson return. Then they can really turn it on.

Get the Reds Out

2009-05-28T18:02:00.004-04:00

-The Lebrons are on the brink tonight. The refs have tried to get them to the finals (see Lebron's bailout with .5 seconds left in game 4) but even sympathetic officials can't make Mo Williams stop sucking. I think Cleveland wins tonight then loses Saturday night. Even Stern can't make Cleveland beat Orlando 3 times in a row, especially given that it took a miracle shot for the series to even be continued past game 4. Too bad. I like watching LeBron run over and dominate.

Kobe and the Lakers got the Stern treatment last night. LA got 55 questionable calls and Denver got 1. At least one large market will make the finals. I guess The Rapist is not a bad second fiddle now that The Chosen One won't be there.

-I recently entered the twitter universe. You can follow me at twitter.com/boosecrahan. I am an instant fan now that I found out how to use text messaging to send tweets.

-Hope everyone saw the Champions League final yesterday. Barcelona is the best team in the world and they proved it by dismantling Manchester United, the Yankees of soccer, 2-0. The game wasn't even that close as Barcelona dominated the final 80 minutes after Man U played well the first 10. The French put up a better fight against the blitzkrieg then Man U put up against Barcelona.

-I am delighted with the news coming out of Lexington, KY recently. First, the basketball team fails to make the tourny, then flames out in the NIT before the final four. They fire their coach and hire a highly controversial coach. Then, a star football player gets busted using performance enhancers and gets suspended for his final season. I am sure he just forgot to check with the trainer even though he was told 1,000 time to always check. Then yesterday came the big guns. Billy G sues them for the full buyout clause of 6 million dollars. Funny how when he was coaching, he had a contract. Now that they fired him, he didn't have one. He will probably get close to that amount in a settlement because UK has other fish to fry right now with its new coach. John Cheataperi's former team will probably lose its final four and 38 wins because Derrick Rose had the SAT taken for him and a friend got some free travel. This would be the second final four Caliperi has had to forfeit, making him the most decorated coach in that department. Congrats Cat fans, your coach finally has something over Pitino. I have a feeling this isn't a coinsidence. He will take down UK just like he took down UMass and Memphis. Couldn't happen to a better group of fans. What is the line, be careful what you wish for......

Off day thoughts

2009-05-28T14:09:00.003-04:00

-Big sweep for the Reds. They are now 26-20, 1.5 games back of the Cards and .5 games back of second place Milwaukee. Today is an off day before 3 games at Miller Park and 4 at Inbev Stadium. HUGE TRIP. I like Jay Bruce's confidence when he said "We’re coming home in first." I am not so optomistic until we make sure Harang is alright after Dusty's stat stuffing move to send him out after a 2 hour delay and Edinson returns healthy and is not overworked. I know I will be watching most of the next 7 games, hoping the Reds continue the strong play.

-OK pick one for your All-Star 1B.
Player A-.360/.467/.632/1.099, 37 G, 10 2B, 8 HR, 33 RBI
Player B-.318/.450/.637/1.087, 46 G, 8 2B, 14 HR, 40 RBI

I like player A, some would like player B. Either way, it is a tossup.

Player A=Joey Votto
Player B=Albert Pujols

If the game were not in St. Louis, I think Joey would have a shot. Unfortunately, MLB will ensure Albert gets the start in his home park. Hopefully Joey will get the backup job. The crazy Canuck deserves it.

-Johnny Cueto is currently #4 in ERA+ with a 194 and Aaron Harang is 13th with a 137. Who would have thought the Reds would have the best 1-2 punch in the NL Central? And Volquez isn't one of them. If he gets back to last year's form, they will have the best 1-2-3 in the entire NL. Would be nice to have come October.

-Non Reds post coming later....

Oswalt once again

2009-05-26T20:01:00.003-04:00

Reds killer Roy Oswalt(24-1 against he Reds) takes the mound tonight to stop the Reds streak. After a rough series against the Phillies last week, the Reds turned it around to win 3 of the past 4 games including taking the battle of Ohio against the Indians. Here is a quick roundup of how the season has gone and what to look forward to.

Record: The Reds are 24-20, 3rd place in the Central and 2.5 games behind the Brewers for first place. They are +7 in run differential which puts their record right about what you would expect a team with that difference to be. Two games remain against the 'Stros before a pivital 10 game stretch, 3 in Mil, 4 in STL, and 3 at home against the Cubs. Should be a fun few weeks to see how the team will handle the big strech of games, most in tough surroundings.

Batting: Joey Votto is leading the NL in batting average. That includes everyone, Ty Cobb Pujols and all. Jay Bruce has found his power stroke having already hit 12 homers. The rest of the team are hitting and getting on base, with Alex Gonzalez the only regular player who has an OBP under .335. He started awful but has begun to find his swing which could be a big lift. The bench is also hitting, with Nix, Gomes, and Rosales all hitting well in limited roles. Phillips learning to take a pitch has helped improve his OPS+ to 110. Other then the hole at SS and lack of power at 3B(.329 slg) and LF(.331 slg), the bats have done better then expected. The new acquisitions have been doing very well with Hernandez having a .295/.363/.388 and 94 OPS+ and Taveras .274/.335/.348 and 77 OPS+. Taveras has stolen 12 bases while only being caught twice. Both have played above average defense and have proven to be solid everyday players.

Pitching: The strength coming into the season has held strong. The pitchers have all been solid, even with an injury sending Volquez to the DL and Arroyo having his annual blowup game. The Reds are 3rd in the NL in ERA+ and 5th in WHIP. The bullpen has only blown one save chance and, for the most part, kept the Reds in the game. Lincoln has been terrible all year and Burton has yet to find his form but the rest of the team has been great, including Masset, the pitcher acquired last season for Ken Griffey Jr.

Outlook: The Reds are in great position. They are 4 above .500 after 44 games, the best in a while. The upcoming 2 weeks will determine a lot. My prediction: Dusty finds a way to screw it up and the Reds fall back to .500. I hope I am wrong but I think I am right.

I'm Back

2009-05-18T18:36:00.002-04:00

It has been a pretty eventful few weeks for me. Derby, marriage, honeymoon. You know how it goes. Now I am back after not following the Reds for a while. Nice to see them still competitive. I will have more analysis as the week goes on but suffice to say I am glad that the Reds are 3 games above .500 after 37 games with Philly, Cleveland, and Houston coming to town over the next 10 days. Above .500 is needed and 7-3 would be great. Be back soon...

Get the Reds Out

2009-04-29T19:12:00.003-04:00

-So Rajon Rondo gets to give Brad Miller an eye rake as he goes for a layup and gets no suspension. Are you serious? And people wonder why no one cares about the NBA. It is fixed. Boston needs to advance because their bandwagon brings viewers and dollars. So Rondo gets to play after a blatant foul while Dwight Howard gets a suspension for an elbow. Too bad no one cares about the Magic. They need a bigger bandwagon in order to get him out of it.

-The NFL draft was this past weekend, one of the most overrated things ever. These players will not see a real play for 5 months and half will not contribute for 17 months yet it is poured down our throats for months. Sorry, don't care. Call me when any of them contribute during a real game.

-Speaking of the NFL, the Bengals are going to be on HBO's Hard Knocks. This is going to be awesome. Marvin with a clueless look on his face, Chad being an ass, and everyone else trying not to let the cameras catch them doing something illegal/getting arrested. How did it take this long?

-Nice to see someone parady the ridiculousness that is Judd Apatow. His movies are funny but, seriously, those guys would NEVER land those girls

Watch In An Apatow World on CollegeHumor

-Finally, Greatest. Website. Ever.

Rough, boring weekend

2009-04-28T19:32:00.002-04:00

Well the Reds started losing some close games. Who saw that coming? Oh wait, I did. The Reds dropped a close one Friday and a close one Monday while splitting blowouts over the weekend. Now the Reds need to win at least one of the two remaining games against the Astros or they will fall below .500.

The game Saturday was great to attend but bad to be a Reds fan. Arroyo was crushed and the offense never got going except for A-Gon's flyball/homer. The wind was blowing out to left and that ball carried a good 25 extra feet. That was the difference between an out and a homer. Didn't matter in the end thanks to Chipper and the boys crushing the ball. Still, 85 and sunny was a great day at the ballpark. Also, beer prices have dropped which was a welcome sign. $5.00 for a small beer is better then most sporting venues. Beer and baseball, can't complain about that.

Not much else going on. The Kentucky Derby is coming up and I will have a pick for you later in the week. Maybe a Get the Reds out tomorrow.

Kind of confused

2009-04-24T13:15:00.003-04:00

Who was that team in the Cincinnati uniforms this past week and a half? Couldn't be the Reds. They don't win on the road. They don't beat division opponents and they certainly don't win all 3 series on a road trip. At least not since 2004. I guess this is a different team, and hey, different is better then boring.

I am not getting too worked up over it though. They are still getting very lucky by winning close and losing big. These things tend to even out. But for now I am riding the wave. Atlanta comes to town and the Reds are expecting large crowds this weekend at Great American Small Park. I will be there Saturday to watch the Lowe-Arroyo pitchers duel. Ok mostly I will be there for the 80 degrees, but seeing some winning baseball won't be bad. I haven't been to a game when the Reds were over .500 this late in the year since 2006. Should be fun.

OK, a quick Reds heavy analysis so far thanks to the amazing baseball-reference.com. This team is lucky. O wait, I already said that. They are 2 games above where they should be according to runs scored-runs allowed. Their .229/.317/.357 put them second to last in the NL in batting average, 3rd last in OBP, 2nd last in slugging, and second last in OPS. Those are dreadful offensive numbers. The other pitiful offensive teams, SF and ARI, have 6 wins each, which is where the Reds should be. You are probably asking why aren't they. Here is your answer: Joey Votto and Pitching.

-Votto has been amazing this season. I saw this coming two games into the year but now it has become apparent that he is for real. And not just in the "Hey the Reds have a player who doesn't suck" mode. He is turning into the left-handed Albert Pujols. Ok, not that good, but still. Through 15 games he has a .373/.431/.644 for a 169 OPS+. It is not quite Albert's .345/.459/.724 for a 202 OPS+ but Joey doesn't have the bloodlust of Albert either. Joey's 15 RBI's are 4th in the NL, behind Albert of course, but for a run-starved team like the Reds, it equates to 53. He has improved his D (where else could it go) and become somewhat of a leader in the clubhouse. 7 more years like this and he will be the left-handed Albert Pujols.

-The pitching has been great. A few starters have had some tough games(Volquez, Owings) but for the most part, the Reds pitchers have kept the team in the game. That is essential because they will not score many runs, so if a starter allows more then 2 runs, the game is probably over. Thank goodness most have kept the other hitters at bay for the first 5 or 6 innings then handed it over to the stellar bullpen. Burton and Lincoln had some bad innings but Weathers, Rhodes, and Cordero have been phenomenal. I feel confident when either of them come in from the bullpen. I can't remember the last time I felt confident when a Reds reliever entered. Ok, I did fell confident when Danny Graves came in but that confidence was in the fact that he would throw a batting practice fastball to lose the game. Slightly different with this group.

Overall, the pitchers have a 115 ERA+, which puts them 3rd in the NL. It is a little deceiving because their 1.432 WHIP puts them 10th, meaning they are allowing a lot of walks and hits but leaving them stranded. Those numbers usually even out and if they do, expect the ERA to go up. For know, we will call it good fortune and hope it continues. Seeing the Reds with good pitching is certainly a treat.

The Braves arrive sitting at 7-8, 2-7 in the last 9 after a great 5-1 start, and needing a strong weekend to catch up to the Florida Smoke and Mirrors. Yes, the Marlins are 11-4 but that is thanks to a 6-0 record against Washington and a 5-4 record against everyone else. I would hold off on the Marlin playoff tickets for now. Should be a fun weekend and hey, the Reds are guaranteed to be at or above .500 for all 3 games. Sounds good to me.

"Now its on to Chicago and let's win there," plus a food update

2009-04-21T19:49:00.006-04:00

OK an RFK quote may not be the best. Especially when it was his last public statement before dying. Let's hope this isn't that last quote before the Reds season dies.

After winning the weekday series in Milwaukee 2-1, and a weekend series in Houston 3-1, the Reds stand at 7-5 and 5-2 on this 10 game road trip. Three games remain on the trip before the Reds return to Cincy for a weekend series with the Braves. Let's hope the luck continues.

Why do I call it luck? The Reds are 2 games above .500 despite being outscored by 10 runs. Teams that have a -10 run differential after 12 games should be 5-7. How have the Reds done it? Of the seven wins, only one has been by more then 2 runs. Of the five losses, three were by 6 or more runs. So either the Reds win close, or lose big. Usually those close games balance out and when they do, the Reds record will nosedive. Let's hope the bats wake up before that happens and a few blowouts can keep the Reds above .500. More in depth statistical analysis will come later in the week as guys gain more AB's but, suffice it to say, without Votto, this team would be Nationals-esque.

Food Update: OK, the chicken and hamburger helper have been put on the back burner this year but a new favorite has emerged. It is the slow cooker or crock pot. It is amazing. All you do is throw in a chuck roast, chicken breasts, or other large meat product, a few spices and seasoning, and some liquid for flavor and cook it on low all day. Come home 9 hours later, cook some rice and the meal is done. I suggest it for anyone who doesn't like to cook because it takes too much time. This takes 2 minutes in the morning and 5 minutes for the rice when you get home. Here are a couple quick recipes:

Chuck roast with a can of cream of mushroom soup.
Chicken breasts, barbeque sauce, and chili powder. Makes spicy BBQ chicken.
Pork tenderloin rubbed with any strong seasoning. and a little Teriyaki or soy sauce.

Rice-a-Roni always work with it.

Finish it off with a beer and a whole meal is done.

You're welcome.

Boose Having A Great Spring

2009-04-20T15:25:00.002-04:00

So we've learned only a few things in this early part of the baseball season:
1) The Reds will do their best to tread water around .500 for most of the first half of the season. This will lead us to some false hope and a dream that a late season move will put us over the edge. This late season move will not materialize and we will fade into bolivian at the end.
2) It is very hard to post on the Reds when you do not get the games on TV. I'll rectify this shortly so I can have some thoughts beyond "the box scores are interesting and I'm sure Dusty screwed something up"
3) I did watch opening day and the Harangatang (why hasn't that nickname taken off?) looked pretty good. The dynamite announcers at ESPN did have this gem of analysis. On the Reds profile, they had a section "Key Questions for 2009 Season" and their big question "Can someone set the table at the top of the lineup"... really that is all that separates the Reds from a playoff appearance "setting the table". I'm convinced they just reused last year's and didn't bother to up date it. I mean that analysis is terrible, but if we had Grif, Dunn and Bruce in the middle of the order then it makes sense. Now, who are they setting the table for and with Dusty around who believe setting the table with walks is a waste of time, what is the point?
4) The real story of the early part of the season is the way Boose has been able to Crank out posts. He is on quite a streak and we all hope he can keep it up. I'm here to provide some support and hopefully can pick up the pace, but nice to see FDB off to a good start this spring.
5) Will post something dedicated to the golden age of television later. Suffice to say, I need to delve into my thoughts on RR/RR Challenge, High School Reunion and The Cougar. All three deserve more space than I can dedicate at the moment, but stay alert.

I know this may not make me cool, but the joke from How I Met Your Mother last week just floored me. Not sure if you saw it, but they just gave you the set up and then you needed to look it up online. What is the difference between peanut butter and Jam?

Punch line is amazing. Well until next time, Go Reds!

Get the Reds Out

2009-04-17T08:19:00.003-04:00

No Reds. Here are some off topic thoughts and link.

-The NBA season begins from most people as the playoffs start. I don't care about the regular season, mainly because the players and coaches don't, but the playoffs are exciting. The Cleveland LeBron's should win it. He is very good and the refs will give him every call. Seems pretty obvious.

-Golf goes into its lull now as the Masters is over and the U.S Open is still 2 months away. I don't understand why they do this. They have the Masters, which is always great, then take 9 weeks off before the next big tournament. Why? So people can forget about it. Tennis does this with the Australian Open then a 5 month break. Why wouldn't a sport want its marquee events spaced fairly close to each other, say 4-6 weeks apart? It would keep interest for a week or 2 after and a week or 2 before the next one so the lull doesn't seem as bad. Makes sense to me. I guess golf and tennis are satisfied with playing 9th fiddle for long stretches of the (now that there is no football) dull sports season.

-I am so glad I'm not associated with these people. God I hate Cubs fans.

-No more STEPHEN A SMITH! O wait, no one cares.

-A Red Sox fan gets it. I knew I wasn't alone.

-Seinfeld, the porno? I have a feeling someone will get a junior mint in an unwanted part of the body.

-And finally, Bruce Pearl rapping. What a tool.

Reds go for sweep

2009-04-15T20:00:00.002-04:00

Get out the brooms. The Reds are looking for the sweep of the Brewers and their 4th win in a row. Right now, the Reds sit at 4-3 and are above .500 for the first time since April 11, 2008. Most of that is due to their patience at the plate. The bats have done nothing, sitting second to last in the league with a .222 batting average, but the walks have boosted the team's OBP to .342, right in the middle of the league at 8th. I have been screaming for the past year that being patient, taking walks, and working pitch counts, would lead to wins. The Reds have done that and have won. Seems so simple. Maybe they should have listened to me earier.

Now if Dusty could just realize A-Gon is awful at the plate and needs more rest. Hairston should start in his place because he is great at the plate and will get hurt soon so we might as well use him while we can. Dickerson needs to play everyday, whether against a RH or LH. Give him a chance before making him platoon. He has earned it.

Let's hope for a sweep and continue it down in Houston against the 1-6 Astros this weekend. They have been terrible sitting at a -27 run differential, worst in the major league. These wins against Central opponents are essential.

Off day tomorrow so probably a Get the Reds Out here at FDB.

Easter Sunday

2009-04-12T13:02:00.005-04:00

Happy Easter all. Feel free to break out the Seersucker. I wonder if the Reds will wear something like this:

The Reds finish up against the Pirates this afternoon. Last night they got crushed and scored all of 2 runs. A struggling offense, who saw that coming? Let's hope they can pull out a win today to get to 2-3 before the first road trip of the season, 10 days to Milwaukee, Houston, and Chicago. These are three big series' against division opponents. Escaping two or three games above .500 is essential if they want to be contenders in the Central.

In the pregame for today's game, Dusty casually said that if his team were at .500 after 32 games, he would be happy. Excuse me? You play a ton of division opponents so a Reds win is twice as important as a win against the Mets. Division titles are won on the road within the division. I thought he was bringing a championship mentality and culture to Cincinnati. Hate to break it to you Dusty, but .500 teams don't win championships. You of all people should know it takes a few more wins then that having once coached a team that went 103-59 and didn't make the playoffs. What a joke. (Hat tip to Ben for catching that quote)

Mets on verge of sweep

2009-04-09T10:47:00.004-04:00

Well the first 2 games were interesting. Opening day went as I thought, good pitching, no offense and a 2-1 loss. The second game looked like the old Reds. Score a bunch of runs, give them back thanks to bad defense, then leave runs out there thanks to double plays and bad base running. I thought Dusty preached good base running and defense. That is why we got rid of our home-run, on base machine Adam Dunn. Sorry Dusty. It didn't work. We pissed away a good hitting day because of an error by Gonzalez, a non-error by Bruce that led to 2 extra runs, and a base running error. Not to mention some bad pitching by Mike Lincoln.

Let me breakdown the good and bad so far:

POSITIVES
-Joey Votto's bat. He has been great and is hitting the ball very hard. 4-8 with a homer including a hit and a walk against Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the NL. He seems to have improved off his unbelieveable rookie year. I think the WBC really helped him. He got to hang out with Morneau and Bay for team Canada and learn about hitting. Also, playing in that playoff atmosphere has him ready to experiece that in the big leagues. Unfortuneatly. it will probably be for Toronto in a few years once the Reds trade him there.

-Brandon Phillips' patience. Don't look know because you may jinx it but BP has decided he doesn't have to swing at everything. He has walked 3 times in the first 2 games which is amazing for a player who has yet to walk 40 times in 162 games. Keep it up.

-Edwin Encanacion's patience. I can't comment on his bat seeing as how he is 0-5 but he has managed to keep it on his shoulder enough to draw 4 walks. Why the Mets have walked him when it is clear he is struggling to make solid contact is beyond me.

NEGATIVES
-Dusty Baker. You knew this one was coming. He put in Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald before Wily Taveras when Wily was clearly healthy enough to play. He legged out a triple then scored on a sac fly. Doesn't sound like someone who is too sick to play. Letting those other 2 swing a bat when a capable, better player sits on the bench is inexcusable. Then again, so is allowing Carlos Beltran and his 118 career OPS+ to hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1st base open. WALK HIM and let your great D turn the double play. Instead, Beltran singled up the middle for 2 runs, the 2 runs the Mets needed to win the game. Well done Dusty.

-Reds pitching control. 7 walks opening day, 7 walks last night. Granted, the Mets are a patient team but walking nearly a batter an inning is terrible. I know Dusty thinks it clogs the bases so he probably encourages walks but it doesn't clog anything. Only when it brings up the pitcher or creates a double play does it make even a little bit of sense. The Reds pitchers need to find the strike zone and find it now or it could be a long season.

The Mets go for the sweep this afternoon which shouldn't be to hard thanks to an injury to the statue that is Jerry Hairston. His totally foreseeable injury forces Darnell McDonald into the lineup again. Darnell is a 30 year old journeyman outfielder with a grand total of 45 ab's in the majors. He is not good at baseball. Glad he could start 2 of the first 3 games for the Reds instead of someone like Gary Sheffield or Drew Stubbs. Gary has his fielding limitations but can still hit and Stubbs has never been in the big leagues bit has shown promise and deserves a shot. Either one would be an improvement over McDonald and both cost the same amount of money. I guess Dusty felt that after trading journeyman Jeff Keppinger he needed McDonald to fill the "trys hard but can't really play baseball" void. Too bad David Eckstien wasn't available.

Predictions

2009-04-07T10:07:00.003-04:00

OK, here are my sure-fire, can't miss predictions for the season.

AL East
-New York 96-66
-Boston 92-70
-Tampa Bay 83-79
-Toronto 78-84
-Baltimore 70-92

The Yankees have the best team and can weather the injuries because they have the money. A-Rod will be back and give the team a boost through the summer and the pitching will round into form. Boston will be good again and will save its energy for the playoffs once they realize they won't win the division. Tampa will come back to earth and the Blue Jays will have a fire sale at the trading deadline when they are out of the race. Baltimore is bad and will continue to be for a while.

AL Central
-Chicago 87-75
-Cleveland 85-77
-Minnesota 83-79
-Kansas City 76-86
-Detroit 70-92

These teams are very close but I think the White Sox will pull it out. Ozzie is insane but seems to win and get the best out of his pitching. Cleveland has too many guys that need to bounce back when all signs point to regression. Minnesota would have been my pick if not for their best player Joe Mauer being injured and having no timetable for a return. The Royals are the Royals and the Tigers have no spark and seem to be going through the motions until they sell off the team.

AL West
-Anaheim 90-72
-Texas 84-78
-Oakland 72-90
-Seattle 68-94

The Angels are still the best team. They have great pitching and can feed off the rest of the division. Texas has improved hitting but their pitching is abysmal and will continue to hurt them. Oakland and Seattle would be decent if this were Triple A. In the major leagues, they are bad.

NL East
-New York 93-69
-Atlanta 88-74
-Philadelphia 82-80
-Florida 76-86
-Washington 67-95

The Mets are the best team in the lesser league. The pitching is good but the offense is excellent. Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are three of the best players in the NL and will carry them to the playoffs. No collapse this year because their lead will be too great. Atlanta should bounce back after a tough luck season last year. Philly will fall back to earth because they aren't as good as they were last October. Florida and Washington are nice farm teams for the big boys and will trade away their best players when they realize their teams are hemorrhaging money.

NL Central
-St. Louis 91-71
-Chicago 89-73
-Cincinnati 84-78
-Milwaukee 81-81
-Houston 75-87
-Pittsburgh 68-94

I still don't trust the Cubs. Everything went right last year for them from Dumpster's career year to Edmonds curious resurgence. The Cardinals, on the other hand, had everything go against them last year and still managed to be near .500. This year, they get more then 6 innings from the former Cy Young award winner Chris Carpenter and win the division while the Cubs will eek out the Wild Card. The Reds will be better simply because the rest of the division isn't as good and the young players are a year older. The Brewers don't have CC and Sheets which will put them back to mediocre. Houston and Pittsburgh are terrible with no hope in sight.

NL West
-Los Angeles 89-73
-Arizona 85-77
-Colorado 81-81
-San Francisco 79-83
-San Diego 68-94

The Dodgers are the easy favorite but I think it will be closer then some think. Manny will not hit like Ted Williams and the rest of the division is catching up. I think Arizona makes another run at them while Colorado and San Fran will be frisky. San Diego is awful and will hit rock bottom once they trade Jake Peavy and anyone else they can unload this summer.

ALDS
-New York beats Chicago
-Boston beats Anaheim

The two best teams should play in the Championship Series. Boston and New York are the two best teams money can buy.

NLDS
-New York beats Chicago
-Los Angeles beats St. Louis

I like what L.A did last year in dismantling the Cubs in the playoffs and I think the Mets rotation is too strong in a short series.

ALCS
-Boston beats New York

The Sox have the playoff experience and can match New York in every other area. Boston gets bored during the season which is why the Yankees will win the division, but the Sox will turn it on in the playoffs and win the pennant.

NLCS
-New York beats Los Angeles

The better pitching should win out and no one is better then Santana. New York's offense is not one dimentional like L.A.'s and will power them to the World Series.

World Series
-Boston beats New York

Hey why not? If I pick the Sox and they win, I look smart. If I pick them and they don't win, I am happy. Sounds like a win-win.

Opening Day is here

2009-04-06T12:58:00.003-04:00

Finally, baseball is back.

The Reds begin the season today as they host the New York Mets and Johan Santana. Should be a good game. Nothing says baseball like 40 degrees and snow showers. Just what you need to shake off the rust from 5 months off.

The roster was set yesterday with Micah Owings winning the battle for the #5 starter and Homer Bailey being sent down to AAA. Tough break for the kid but Micah has more experience and it was encouraging that both pitched well. Giving Homer a bit of a break to keep his innings down is not a bad thing either.

In the field, Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald made the team, both a bit of surprise. Johnny Gomes played excellent but was optioned to AAA, meaning he could become a free agent or go down to Louisville. McDonald made the team because he can play CF and with Willy Taveras sick, it was more out of necessity. Paul Janish is the backup SS, mainly due to his very good glove and not his 36 OPS+ bat.

Here is the opening day lineup, with McDonald in there because of Willy's sickness:

Hariston, LF
McDonald, CF
Votto, 1B
Phillips, 2B
Bruce, RF
Encarnacion, 3B
Hernandez, C
Gonzalez, SS
Harang, P

I think the Reds will lose this game because, well, they are facing Johan and their offense is pretty bad. I am interested to see how the defense is because that was one of the main areas of so-called improvement this offseason.

I will post later today with my predictions for the divisions and playoffs.

Here's to another great season. Go Reds! Fire Dusty!

Get the Reds Out

2009-03-09T19:49:00.003-04:00

Sorry I missed last week. I have been busy at work getting things done because I am heading to Vegas on Thursday. That's right. Conference tourny weekend in Vegas, staying at Cesar's Palace. Can't wait. Here are some quick non-Reds thoughts as Spring Training and the WBC plod along. One month until opening day and real baseball. Let's go:

-Congrats to my Cards for winning the Big East Championship outright. 16-2 in the hardest conference in college basketball history is amazing. Because they are the top seed they are scheduled to play Villinova in the semis and avoid Pitt and UConn until the final. A tournament title or even a run to the finals should get them a #1 seed, something they haven't had in 25 years.

-Memphis is riding the wave of a terrible conference and are up to #3 in the latest polls, even receiving first place votes. If they get a #1 seed in the tourny, I could see a #16 upsetting them. I have seen the Tigers play a few times recently, against UAB and Houston, 2 teams that would finish in the bottom 3 of the Big East, and they were not impressive. They lost most of their leaders from last years team and the young players are prone to mental mistakes. Be careful before putting them in the Final Four.

-The SEC is garbage. I know this isn't news to most people but I just think it needs to be said.

-This guy loves breakfast.

-Any advice for me this week in Vegas? I haven't been since the economy went in the toilet. Anything different, better, worse?

-And finally, it is good to be Dan Patrick. An Andrews girl on each arm.(Yes, Erin Andrews has sisters.)

- I

Reds links

2009-02-26T19:27:00.002-05:00

-Well the first two spring training games are in the books and the Reds have actually scored a few runs. They beat the Rays 7-0 yesterday then fell to the Twins 10-4 today. Things will change soon when some of our best leave for the World Baseball Classic. Here is the list of players.

-Chris Dickerson is filming videos for USA Today. He seems like a smart kid who reads Marketing Strategy books and started his own website for environmentally conscious players. Hey, at least it is better then being a drunk, degenerate athlete.

-SI.com takes a look at the Reds and compares them to the 2008 Rays. There are some similarities. Jonny Gomes comes to mind. Other then that, I don't really see it but CHONE projections has the Reds at 82-80. I would take that for now and that is much smarter then me.

-Maybe Taveras will be better then some think. I think he will be better then most think. He can't be any worse then this man.

Back with more tomorrow and probably another Get the Reds Out.

Get the Reds Out

2009-02-25T16:00:00.003-05:00

Some quick thoughts while wondering who this is possible:

-Another HUGE night in hoops. The marquee matchup comes in the Big East where UConn travels up to Canada Lite (Wisconsin) to take on Marquette. Vegas has it as a pick 'em. I have to go with Marquette. They are a veteran team with great guard play and have the home court advantage. Also, it is Ash Wednesday which is kind of a big deal at a Catholic University such as Marquette. How can you go against God?

Elsewhere, Duke goes up to College Park to take on the Turtles, who beat UNC last weekend. Should be a close game until the refs make some questionable calls and Duke with by 5. But hey, they get to reminise on the glory days in a few weeks. Also in the ACC, Clemson faces a desperate Virginia Polytech. I don't really plan to watch seeing as how both would be somewhere between 6 and 9 in the Big East but in the end, Clemson will pull it out. The best team no one is talking about, Mizzu, plays K State at 9. Mizzu should whip them with ease as they get closer to a 2 or 3 seed. The conference nobody cares about (SEC) features two elinimation game meaning the loser will have ahard time making the tournament. One has the UK Mildcats heading to Columbia to face to USC Jr. Gamecocks (The real USC is in L.A.) The other pits Mississippi State against the second best basketball team in Knoxville. Both should be close because all the teams in the conference are middle of the road so I will take the two home teams, the Vols and Gamecocks.

-Eat this Reggie Miller and your 8 points in 10 seconds.

-For my colleauge who hates the idea of a salary cap, someone else thinks it wouldn't be a bad thing.

-Champions League is back in the round of 16. First leg yesterday and today with the second legs coming in a few weeks. The way it works, for those who don't know, is each team gets one home game and at the end, the aggregate score winner moves on. If it is tied after that, whoever scored the most away goals wins. If still tied they go into two 15 minute periods. If still tied then shootouts. Let me give you an example. Team A wins the first leg at home over Team B, 2-1. In the second leg, Team B must win by at least 1 goal. If they win by 2, they will win on aggregate. If they win 1-0 they win beacause while the aggreagate is still 2-2, they scored an away goal and Team A did not. If Team B wins 3-2, they would lose because Team A would have score 2 aways goals to Team B's 1 even though they tied 4-4 on aggregate. If the score is an identical 2-1 game, they would move to extra time and possibly a shootout. Hope that helps. You could also go right here. Probably should have linked that earlier.

-Finally, from the so-your-telling-me-there's-a-chance department, it seems some benchwarmer married this gir l:

We can all dream can't we.

Outfield

2009-02-24T10:42:00.003-05:00

The final position breakdown is here. In the past, this was one of our strengths. This season, not so much. But hey, we got rid of the lazy, homer hitting, on-base machines in the middle of the lineup and are faster and scrappier. So what if we don't score any runs. At least we are a bunch of Johnny Try-Hards who know how to bunt and run out groundball outs. Now if Dusty can teach them to swing first and never take walks, the transformation will be complete. Let's move on before I start throwing things and break it down by position:

RF
Starter - Jay Bruc e (.254/.314/.453. OPS+ of 96)

He turns 22 around opening day and will be at this position for years to come. Hailed as one of the best prospects in the game going into last season, he did not disappoint. His scorching start cooled as teams saw him a second and third time but he adjusted. After tearing up May and June with a .297/.348/.426, his July and August numbers went down to .239/.277/.421. After Griffey left and gave him RF as his permanent spot in September, he hit .256/.351/.573 which is amazing for a 21 year old rookie. I think his struggle in the middle months was inevitable because teams were adjusting to him but the way he came back in September was encouraging. He learned what it was like to be a major leaguer and having to change your approach to be successful. I expect a breakout year for him now that he has an everyday job and everyday position. He should go .275/.335/.470 with 25 HR's and 95 RBI's while joining Votto and Phillips as the young leaders of the team.

CF
Starter - Willy Taveras (.251/.308/.296, OPS+ of 56)
Backup - Jerry Hairston Jr.

Last season was rough for Willy. He regressed in every hitting category from his '07 .320/.367/.382 but managed to steal more bases. He went 68 for 75 on the basepaths for an amazing 91%. Dusty plans on using him as the leadoff hitter, which is based purely on his SBs and discounts the fact that he doesn't get on base. He is moving from Coors to Great American which isn't much of a change and if he can just get on base, things could be good. His defense is average so there is not a loss there and he is still fairly young having just turned 27 on Christmas so improvment is not out of the question. I think he will benefit from the change of scenery and put up numbers closer to '07. If not there is always a replacement waiting.

LF
Starter - ?
Backup - ?

This is the biggest crapshoot on the team. The Reds spent the entire offseason looking for an everyday right-handed power bat to go here. I had an idea. The team looked into Jermaine Dye. In the end, nothing happened. Now the Reds have a bunch of guys, none of which is a everyday power hitting right-hander. Most see the front runner as Chris Dickerson. He did great in his late season call up going .304/.413/.608, OPS+ of 160. Of course that was in only 102 AB's and they were the best 102 AB's he has had at any professional level ever, so I am guessing he is not the second coming of Albert Pujols. He is left handed and his OPS fell by 200 points against left handers so he is not exactly what the Reds had in mind. He is still a 26 year old rookie who can improve and deserves a chance to play everyday sometime just so the Reds can see what they have. I think he will make the team and platoon with Hairston until he gets his feet wet or Hairston gets injured. The other players up for this spot are Jaque Jones, Johnny Gomes, Lance Nix, and Norris Hopper. The first 3 are non-roster invites and there is a reason. Hopper looked to be an up and comer until he missed almost all of last season with an injury. He hit .329/.379/.388 in his only extended major league appearance which was 307 AB's in 2007. Those numbers would be great at the top of the order if he is healthy and Taveras and/or Dickerson struggle or get hurt. I think Dickerson and Hopper make the club along with Hariston because of his versatility. That leaves one extra spot between the non-roster invites. I think it goes to Gomes because he is a right handed power bat. He doesn't hit for average or get on base so he is not an everyday player but he is a strong bat on the bench. I want him to make it for personal reasons. He brings a certain fire to the team. Also, he did something I think we all want to do, beat the crap out of the Red Sox:

The outfield should be Bruce, Taveras, and a platoon of Hairston/Hopper and Dickerson. Bruce is the only bat that would scare most teams but if the other two positions can improve and play at their best, the outfield will at least be adequate. Any struggles or injuries and the outfield will turn into Bruce and 2 automatic outs. The defense should be improved without Griffey and Dunn, but that is pretty much a given.

This concludes out look at the Reds by positions. Games begin tomorrow with the Reds taking on the Devil Rays. The run to the 2009 pennant begins then. For the Devil Rays, of course.

New feature: Getting the Reds Out

2009-02-23T14:31:00.004-05:00

Ok. This is a new feature to the blog. Periodically(Daily, Weekly, Monthly, we will see) I will make a post that has nothing to do with the Reds or their terrible manager. It will be called Getting the Reds Out and will be about anything that is on my mind. My legion of fans (two) has been calling for more non-Reds talk because, apparently, not everyone is a Reds and/or baseball fan. I guess not everyone cares about OPS+ and who will be the 5th starter. Anyway, onto the thoughts:

-2 weeks remaning in college basketball and teams are fighting for bids like fat kids fight for twinkees. March madness is close, which mean so it this guy. Pitt, UConn, and UNC are probably the best teams right now with the Oklahoma Griffins right there if healthy. The rest of the top 10 can make a run if hot but have glaring weaknesses. I always love when people argue over bubble teams. These are teams that are clearly not in the top 25 and have a 1% chance of making any impact in the tournament yet will be discussed for hours on end.Think about that next time you see people arguing over who should get in, Kentucky or Arizona (Arizona every time). Anyway, good slate of games tonight with Louisville playing a desperate team fighting for a bid on the road. Where have I see that before? I will take Georgetown to get the win tonight. In the other game, Oklahoma takes on Kansas. Griffin may or may not play. I think he sits because there is no need to risk further damage when he would be better served resting until the real tourny. Kansas should beat the other Sooners.

-Tiger Woods finally returns to golf this week. It is about time. It was strange that they cancelled all the tournaments up until now. Wait, you mean they actually played them. Funny, I didn't hear a word about them. What are they going to do when Tiger wins his 20th major in a few years and retires?

-The Oscars were last night and Slumdog Millionaire cleaned up. Hey, at least it is better then Titanic.

-Conan O'Brien had his finally show on Late Night Saturday. He is taking over the Tonight Show on June 1st out in L.A. Here are the 15 funniest moments. His last show was excellant and I can't wait until his new show starts. As for his replacement, let's just say I have better things to do then watch him.

-Finally, This guy is making $161 million. If there is a weight-salary comparison, I should be worth about $140 million.

Infield

2009-02-20T11:10:00.003-05:00

The positional breakdown has now moved into the field. The Reds infield is fairly set with the only variable being injuries and Dusty Baker's stupidity. These two are very similar because they can be unpredictable and cause great anger to Reds fans everywhere. Let's hope the injuries don't creep up because Dusty's ignorance is unavoidable and will probably be enough to drive most fans to drinking. I have already started. Here is how the infield breaks down by position:

C
Starter: Ramon Hernandez (.257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86)
Backup: Ryan Hanigan (.271/.367/.365, OPS+ of 91 in only 85 AB's)

In the offseason the Reds made one trade. That trade sent oft-injured and useless Ryan Freel to Baltimore for the oft-aloof and useless Ramon Hernandez. Seems like a case of both guys needing a change of scenery. Hernandez was criticized last season for seeming disinterested and not trying his hardest(Adam Dunn behind the plate). This may have had to do with the fact that Baltimore's best prospect was goign to take his spot behind the plate very soon. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers in the toughest division in baseball. Instead of facing 4 of the best rotations in baseball(Tor, NYY, Bos, TB) he gets to feast on some of the worst (Pit, Mil, Hou). I would also hope that a new team with great young Latin talent would get him excited about playing again. Not to mention our manager and his ability to get the best out of players. If he can improve to a .270/.320/.420 he would be the best catcher the Reds have had since Joe Oliver. Ok, that may be a stretch but I just wanted to give a shout out to the fromer World Series Hero. Hanigan played well in his September callup and is a much better defensive catcher then Hernandez. He will need to show he can hit everyday in the majors before he takes over the job. A year of backing up/spot starting would be a great way to break him in.

1B
Starter: Joey Votto (.297/.368/.506, OPS+ 124)

Last season's Rookie of the Year Runner-Up solidified his spot here for years to come. He started in a platoon with Scott Hatteberg (Thanks Dusty) but soon proved he needed to play every day. The key to him is that he was able to hit the same whether it was a RH or LH pitcher. He drew walks and hit to all fields which made him very dangerous. His defense was very up-and-down, mostly down, but he improved as the year went on and will hopefully continue that. He is only 25 and should be a staple of the Reds for a long time. Or at least until he gets too expensive and moves to a team that has money.

2B
Starter: Brandon Phillips (.261/.312/.422, OPS+ of 92)

Brandon's stats declined a little last season from his OPS+ of 105 in 2007. This is partly because he was moved to cleanup hitter and asked to hit homeruns. This didn't work. So what does Dusty do? Put him back at #4 this season. Brilliant. He OBP has never been great but last season he drew more walks in fewer AB's and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can return to '07 form, he could be good again. His defense is his strength. A former SS, his range in unbelieveable and, if not for a ridiculous '07 vote, he would have 2 straight gold gloves. He has been trying to become a leader, even attending the Reds caravan, something usually given to rookies because it takes away from time on the golf course. The question is whether his teammates will follow his lead. The best way to get the respect is to play and play well. Winning would also help.

SS
Starter: Alex Gonzalez (.272/.325/.468, OPS+ of 99 all in 2007)

Gonzalez is back and said to be 100% after missing all of last season after having knee surgery. '07 was a great year for him at the plate but his defense and playing time were down. This could have been because his child was suffering from medical issues and took his focus off the game. This season, everything is good and he should be ready to go from day one. If his defense returns to what it was a few years ago and his batting stays strong he could be one of the better SS's in the national league. Before the injury, he was widely regarded as one of the best defensive SS in the game. His '07 year at the plate was also one of his best. His health and return to form will be a major factor in whether the Reds can improve and possibly contend this season.

3B
Starter: Edwin Encancion (.251/.340/.466, OPS+ of 106)

Edwin regressed last year, both at the plate and in the field. His explanation for his struggles at the plate was kept trying to pull the ball out of the ballpark. This season he is going to try and spray it to all fields which should help his average. He still draws a ton of walks, much to Dusty's chagrin, and has the power to hit 20 HRs. Still young at 26 he should improve at the plate and on the field. His defense was atrocious last season but was pretty good the year before. I'm sure his actual ability is somewhere in the middle. He should continue to hit and put up a solid OBP. Improvement in the fielding and throwing would boost him to the top tier of NL 3rd basemen.

Utility IFs
All positions-Jeff Keppinger (.266/.310/.346, OPS+ of 70)
SS, 2B-Jerry Hairston Jr. (.326/.384/.487, OPS+ of 124)

Keppinger is a serviceable utility man who can hit when healthy. His numbers last season were down but that is partly because he was rushed back from a knee injury and played at less then 100%. At full strength his OPS+ is about 100 but his range at short is very limited. Hairston is in the battle for LF but can also play CF, SS, and 2B which makes him very useful. He can also serve as a leadoff hitter and the Reds were very good when he played last season. Of course, last season was a career year for him which he attributed to being 100% for most of it. Unfortunately that didn't last long because he was back on the DL a few times. The Reds will need him as a backup and spot starter and if he can stay healthy, a big if, he will be a solid RH bat off the bench.

One other player in the running for the utility spot is Wilkin Castilo, a player acquired in the Adam Dunn trade. He is only 24 and can play all IF spots including C. He received 30 AB's last September but will probably start the season back in the minors until his hitting improves or someone gets injured.

The infield is a solid hitting bunch with the corners being the strength and the middle being average to above-average. The defense, other then 2B, is a big question mark. Gonzalez is older and coming off a season ending injury and the corners are young and error-prone. If they improve and Gonzalez is back to his old form, they could be good. If they don't improve and Gonzalez is limited, the Reds will once again be at the bottom of the NL in terms of defense. Let's hope for the former and not the latter.

Bullpen

2009-02-19T09:33:00.004-05:00

Last season was the first time in a long time that the bullpen could be considered adequate. All it took was signing an overrated closer to a ridiculous amount of money. But hey, they spent money and it worked. Wish they would do it more.

The relievers put up a 3.81 ERA last season, which is amazing because the year before the bullpen ERA was 5.13. The additions of Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, and Francisco Cordero were the main reason along with steady improvement from Bill Bray, Jared Burton, and David Weathers. The only one of those players not returning is Jeremy Affeldt. The Reds remedied this by acquiring Arthur Rhodes in free agency. Rhodes pitched very well for both Seattle and Florida last year posting a 2.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and striking out better then a batter per inning. He is left handed and will probably be used as a left-hand hitting specialist, nearly the same role Affeldt played last season. In that sense, the bullpen is very similar with Cordero closing, Weather and Burton as 7th and 8th inning guys, Rhodes as lefty specialist and the Bray/Lincoln combo for anything else.

Cordero pitched well last season, converting 34 of 40 saves or 85%. He also struck out 78 batters in 70 innings. He should be improved this season because he recently said in spring training that he pitched last season with a bone spur that was removed in the offseason. Let's hope he can convert 90%. Let's also hope he gets more opportunities.

Burton was hurt for parts of last season so he was not able to duplicate his amazing rookie ERA of 2.51, but look for that form to return. The 27-year-old pitched very well in the middle of the season, posting a 0.95 ERA from late may until he was injured in late July. He finished the season with a 3.22 ERA. He is still improving and should continue to strike out better then a batter per inning as he settles into the 8th inning/future closers role.

Weathers posted his best ERA since 2003 at 3.25 and again was able to throw 70+innings. He is frustrating at times but manages to get the job done more often then not. He was signed to a 2-year deal this offseason but I would expect him to be traded to a contender in need of bullpen depth of the Reds are out of it again.

Bill Bray has battled injuries since arriving in Cincinnati from Washington. He is only 26 and posted a 2.87 ERA in 47 inning last year. If he can keep up that pace and stretch out to 60 or 70 innings, he could be a valuable member of the bullpen and the heir to the David Weathers set-up role.

Mike Lincoln was out of baseball before last season. He returned to pitch 70 innings and post a 4.48 ERA, which was about the league average. Hopefully he will improve in his second season back and the ERA will drop. Either way, he is a nice innnings eater but he is not someone you want on the mound in a pressure situation.

Overall, the bullpen looks sound with a good mix of veterans (Cordero, Weathers, Rhodes) and youngsters(Burton, Bray). The question in spring training is whether or not the flame throwing Josh Roenicke will make the roster as the final bullpen guy. He pitched live batting practice and let it fly at 98 mph. Would be nice to a change of pace from the batting practice speed of Weathers. The final spot may go to the loser of the 5th starter race, especially if Owings loses because he is a pinch hitter and relieft pitcher.

All in all, this is a solid bullpen that should be one of the strengths of the Reds.

We have now done the pitchers which means all that is left are the hitters. I will probably do the infield and outfield posts seperatly but let me warn you, it ain't looking good.

Starting Pitchers

2009-02-13T15:14:00.004-05:00

For the first time in over a decade, the Reds left their starting pitching staff in tact. Last season our starters had an ERA of 4.97. Remove the revolving 5th starter(Fogg, Bailey, Belisle, Ramirez, Thompson, and Pettyjohn) and his 7.11 ERA and the other 4 returners (Harang, Cueto, Volquez and Arroyo) had an ERA of 4.37. That is not half bad and would have been in the top half of the NL before factoring in the bandbox called Great American Ballpark. Those 4 should be the cornerstone of one of the best 1-4 staffs in the NL and should give us a quality start two-thirds of the time.

The success of the Reds will come down to who wins the 5th spot and how that pitcher fares. Last season the 5th starter was 4-21. Change that number to 11-14 and the Reds become a .500 team. I expect Harang to bounce back and have a good season, which should offset any bumps in the road for Volquez and Cueto, who should both struggle in their second season pitching to the NL. Arroyo will do his 200 innings and 12 wins like always. As the 5th starter goes, so goes the team. He goes 11-14 while the top 4 stay the same, they are .500. He goes 14-11 with the top 4 staying the same, they are an 84 win team. He goes 15-10 with the top 4 inproving, they could get to 88 wins and have a chance at the division or WC with some help. I know its a long shot but everyone is a contender in February and March. Jeff Passan thinks we have a chance to compete with the Cubs(and like myself is not a Dusty fan). The 5th starter will determine it.

The competition will likely be between these four pitchers:

Micah Owings-Centerpiece of the Adam Dunn trade, he has started 45 major league games and has put up a 14-17 record in 257.1 innings with a 4.97 ERA. Struggled last year and had his pitching year cut short due to an injury but should be fully healed for spting training. He is 26 and has by far the most major league experience of any other contender. The other great thing is he can swing the bat. Last season he served as a pitch hitter for the Reds in September and managed to go 2-4 with 3 RBI's. He has put up solid batting numbers in his 116 AB's with a .319/.355/.552 and OPS+ of 126. That is a small sample sive but automatically makes him the 6th or 7th best hitter on the team. Can still be used as a pitch hitter late. His job to lose and I think he wins it.

Odds to job: 3-2

Homer Bailey-Once a top 10 prospect who some people are calling washed up at 22 years old. Those people are idiots and don't listen to them. He is still very young and, if he gets his head on straight, could break out and have a huge year. He has pitched well in AAA but has not been able to translate that success to Cincinnati. I chalk it up to being young and nervous. If he can make the club out of spring training and spend some time with Harang and Arroyo to learn the ropes, I think he could be very good.

Odds of winning job: 2-1

Daryl Thompson-bursted on the scene last summer with a great debut in Yankee Stadium. His is only 23 years old and only started 10 games above AA, 3 of those with the Reds. He should probably spend most of the year in Louisville and be called up later in the summer if there is an injury or trade. I like his potential but unless he throws lights out he needs some more seasoning. No need to rush his development when we have plenty of other viable, and probably better candidates.

Odds of winning job: 8-1

Ramon Ramirez-26 year old who probably looked the best out of the contenders last season, starting 4 games and pitching 27 innings with a 2.67 ERA. More mature then the other contenders and we know how Dusty loves older players. Can pitch out of the bullpen so if he were to lose the 5th starter spot he could make the team as a long reliever/spot starter. Still needs to Wow people to win the job because he is close to a finished product and would take time away from developing one of the other, younger contenders.

Odds of winning job: 10-1

The way I see it, Owings should get it unless some other pitcher pitches so well they take it away. Last year, Volquez pitched better then expected and Cueto blew everyone away to earn his spot, so it could happen. We will find out over the next 6 weeks.

Baseball is Back, and so am I

2009-02-13T11:34:00.004-05:00

Pitchers and catchers report this week. Spring training is upon us. I could not be happier that baseball is finally back.

I know I have been away for a while. It seems the Reds did nothing while I was gone so all 5 of my readers have not missed anything. I did some reflection and soul-searching and decided that I need to get back to the focus of this blog, the firing of Dusty Baker.

Dusty was brought in for many horrible, nonsensical reasons. One of which was his ability to lure free agents that would not otherwise come to Cincinnati. Since he has arrived, the Reds lost their two faces of the franchise, Griffey and Dunn, and have added no one. Where are these free agents he was going to lure? Manny is unsigned. I made my pitch for him. Abreu took 1 year and 5 mil. Even Griffey and Dunn took pay cuts and signed with other teams. HE HAS LURED NO ONE!

Can't wait for another season of bad cliches (injuries have hurt us, we are young, making stupid mistakes and need to focus) followed by no free agents signings and losing a few good players. That seems to be the Reds motto. That and avoid anyone who gets on base.

I will try and post most days and plan on breaking the Reds down by positions over the next week as players arrive at camp. Now a few quick links that you may have missed because, well, the Reds never make any news.

Griffey headed back to Seattle. Good for him. They like him there and he can have a nice little swan song. Imagine if he had started the juice when A-Rod and everyone else did in 2001. He may not have gotten injured or at least returned quicker and the Reds may have another banner or two. I guess cheaters do win.

Adam Dunn signed with Washington, and so did about 50 other Ex-Reds, including blog favorite Corey Patterson. I miss him already. The brilliantly named FireJimBowden.com has the list of Ex-Reds signed by the Nationals and C. Trent has a nice photoshoped picture of the new hats for Washington.

I guess there is one team the Reds should beat, a team full of their castoffs.

Well that is it for today. Expect more posts in the coming weeks breaking down the team as well as any updates if anything every happens, which it probably won't.

End of Bowl Season; Reds signings

2009-01-08T10:44:00.003-05:00

Well a new year is upon us. My resolution: to write on the blog more. Why? Because I am fed up with college football and the only good thing to happen in college basketball has been this:

Well the final Bowl game is tonight and as I predicted it is an overrated SEC team against Oklahoma. I picked an overrated SEC team to win and I think that will happen. Florida, who lost at home to a 9 win Ole Miss team, gets to play for the title instead of USC, who lost to a 9 win Oregon State team two days before. Utah goes undefeated, beating that same Oregon State team along with No. 12 TCU and No. 14 BYU before trouncing the almighty Alabama in the Crimson Tide's backyard, yet gets no shot at a title. Why do these teams have no shot? Because they don't play in the almighty SEC. That being said, Oklahoma was the second best Big 12 team and should be able to hang with Florida but, in the end, Florida will pull it out because the home team usually wins a close game and this game is being played 300 miles from Gainsville and 1,500 miles from Norman. Sure is nice that the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt from the pollsters and computers even though they aren't a top 2 team(LSU 2003, Florida 2006, LSU 2007, Florida 2008) and gets to play the title game in their own backyard almost every year(LSU 2003, LSU 2007, Florida 2008). No matter what happens tonight, the real national champion will not be crowned because USC, Utah, and Texas have just as much a right to call themselves champions as tonights winner.

As for the Reds, I missed a few things during the holiday break. The Reds signed Willy Taveras to a 2 year deal worth $2.25 million this year and $4 million next year. He is a speedy CF, still fairly young at 27, and has shown signs of being a good leadoff man. His OPS in 2007 was .367 before falling to .308 last season. If he can go back to his 07 season, he would be a huge upgrade over previous leadoff/CF because his defense is pretty good and his baserunning is excellant. He was 68 for 75 last year which is the most steal in the league as well as one of the highest averages at 91%. Either way, he is better than Corey Patterson who has somehow gotten another chance at playing baseball, this time with the Nationals.

The other move was a resigning of Jerry Hairston on a one year deal. I also like this move because it is only a 1 year deal and he can play a variety of position, when healthy. He can play SS if A-Gon continues his 3 year rehab as well as CF and LF if we don't find another bat.

The righthand hitting LF search continues and things aren't looking too good. Milton Bradley is headed to Chicago, Pat Burrell is in Tampa, and it looks like the Red Sox will take Rocco Baldelli. That leaves only one available player, Manny Ramirez. He is still out there meaning his price has to have come down to around 20 million, something the Reds could probably afford but won't be able too because baseball is not meant for everyone to compete, only for big markets to compete every year with a random team thrown in to spice it up. I have seen all the stats about how many teams have made the playoffs/WS in the past 20 years but I give you this one, only once in the past 15 years has a team in the bottom half of payroll actually won the WS. That team was the Marlins. Goes to show you that those who can spend and do spend, win the WS. Those that don't have the means, have to hope for a miracle run to the playoffs or WS but don't have a realistic shot at actual winning the trophy. So, as pitchers and catchers begin to report in a month, remember that only 15 teams have a chance to hoist the trophy. What a great game.

Bowl Season is Here

2008-12-19T17:11:00.003-05:00

Well the two weeks off have been brutal but the magical bowl season is here. Four games tomorrow and one more Sunday. Let's break them down.

EAGLE BANK BOWL, Wake Forest vs. Navy, Sat. 11 am

This game was created so Navy could play in it. It is brand new and Navy was invited 2 months ago. Too bad they won't win. Jim Grobe is a great coach and will make the adjustments he did not make when they were beat 24-17 back on 9/27. The Navy offense will not surprise the defense and Wake will pull it out 20-10.

NEW MEXICO BOWL, Colorado State vs. Fresno State, Sat. 2:30 pm

I am going with Fresno and it has nothing to do with how either team has played this year. It is purely because Fresno was involved in one of my 5 favorite college football games of the past 5 years when they took Bush and Leinert to the end in 2005. That game was back and forth, up and down, and didn't begin until 11 pm meaning i was drinking all night watching a great football game. I've had a soft spot for them ever since so I am taking them here 35-28.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL, Memphis vs. South Florida, Sat. 4:30 pm

This game is being played in the Trop. Yeah, the Devil Rays field. It is also just across the bridge from USF. Memphis is a bad C-USA team that is just happy to be in a bowl. Hell, Memphis lost at home to Louisville. That should be enough to take the Bulls 31-13. South Florida has a few players that may be drafted and they will need to put on a show here. They will. Always take the more talented team with potential draft picks in these lesser games because they know they need to show they can play in order to be drafted.

LAS VEGAS BOWL, BYU vs. Arizona, Sat. 8 pm

Well, the BYU seniors know the drill by now. They have never been anywhere else. This is BYU's 4th straight Las Vegas Bowl appearance. They have won the last two after being beaten by Cal in 2005. They will win again this year. Arizona hasn't been to a bowl in a decade and they finished 5-4 in the terrible PAC-10. Also, the Arizona players will be living it up in Vegas while the Mormons are preparing and getting extra sleep. Won't even be close.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL, Southern Miss vs. Troy, Sun. 8:15

C-USA-Sun Belt showdown in the Crescent city. Great times. Both teams are pretty bad but Troy won their conference while Southern Miss went 4-4 in the powerful C-USA. I think Troy wins a close one 27-24.

More breakdowns and thoughts next week.

SIGN MANNY!

2008-12-11T20:43:00.003-05:00

OK, stop laughing. Seriously, stop it. I am going to make a case for signing him. It isn't that difficult.

First, Manny has played in a small market and loved it. When in Cleveland, he enjoyed being away form the spotlight. The constant attention in Boston was something he never got used to and eventually got to him. In LA, he thrived because of the laid back atmosphere. The Cincinnati media would love him and he would be allowed to do his goofy things without scorn. The team would love it, the fans would love it, and the media would love it. He fills our exact need would be a hero here.

Second, he would be energized playing with all the young Latins on the team. Manny and David Ortiz were best friends in Boston. This came out of both of them being Dominican. The Reds have great young Dominicans in Encarnacion, Volquez and Cueto as well as an old veteran in Cordero. Being around these young guys would get him excited and when Manny is happy, he is one of the best players in the league. Of course, when not happy he is still in the top 10.

Third, we can afford him. According to John Fay's math here, the Reds will probably spend $16 million more this year. Giving Manny $22 million per year for 4 years would be enough to get him here. That is only a $6 million increase over what they planned on spending. That $6 million would easily be made up in season ticket sales and merchandise sales very quickly. This would sure up LF meaning we give Hariston the few million we were going to give him anyway to play center and call it a day.

Fourth, it would show the league the Reds are serious about winning. Free agents would see this as a step to win games now and want to come here. It would change the perception from a continual loser to an up and comer who isn't afraid to take a risk if it helps the team. Much like the Brewers did last year and were rewarded with a playoff trip.

Here would be the lineup with the Manny and Hairston signing:

CF Hairston
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF Ramirez
RF Bruce
3B Encanacion
SS Gonzalez (or Keppinger)
C Hernandez
P (Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, and Bailey/Owings/Thompson)

That is a team that can compete from top to bottom. It has a strong lineup with tons of power 2-6. Our pitching consists of 2 very good and 2 above average starters with a young pitcher with great upside in the 5 hole. The bullpen is nearly the same as the one who finished with a 3.81 ERA.

Manny is just sitting at home right now. Bob claims he wants to build a winner. Here is the chance. Pick up the phone and get Manny here.

Actual Reds News

2008-12-09T15:35:00.003-05:00

John Fay is reporting a trade between the Reds and Orioles in which the Reds would send Ryan Freel and a mid-level prospect to Baltimore for the Orioles catcher Ramon Hernandez and some cash to cover the difference in salaries. I like this trade. Here is the breakdown of the two players:

Freel: 32 years old. 2009 stats of .298/.340/.359, OPS+ of 82. 0 HR's 10 RBI's in 48 games and 131 AB's. Played in 99+ games in 3 of his 6 pro seasons. Coming off surgery.

Hernandez: 32 years old. 2009 stats of .257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86. 15 HR's and 65 RBI's in 133 games and 463 AB's. Played 99+ games in all 10 pro seasons.

I like this trade for a number of reasons. First and foremost, we are trading an oft-injured, utility player whose main asset is his speed and toughness. This speed and toughness is only in reputation because he is on the wrong side of 30 and has had significant injuries two years in a row. His grit and toughness don't show up on the field because he is always hurt. Besides, the Reds already have a super utility guy in Jeff Keppinger who can play all infield and corner outfield positions and doesn't get paid 4 million dollars. Freel was not useful on the Reds roster and the fact that anyone wants him amazes me.

Ramon Hernandez is not exactly Mike Piazza, but he is a serviceable catcher. He has spent the past 3 years in the AL East, the toughest division in baseball, yet still managed to put up 3 years of 111, 88, and 86 OPS+. A move to the National League and Great American Ballpark can only help those numbers. He could turn into a 20 HR guy and an OPS+ of around 100. What an upgrade that would be. He is also from Venezuela which can only help the communication between him and our pitching staff(Volquez, Cueto, Cordero). If he can help bring along Ryan Hanigan and hold down the catcher spot until Devin Meseraco, our first round pick in 2007, can make it to the big leagues, that would be a huge plus.

Worst case he serves as a back-up to Hanigan for the same price as Freel would have made while on the DL or serving as a light-hitting pinch hitter. Best case he catches for a few years and helps develop Cueto and Volquez until a younger catcher takes over and Hernandez backs him up. We all know he will be better than last years catcher, "The Human Out" Paul Bako.

This deal seems to sure up the catching spot meaning the only real focus is for a right-handed hitting outfielder who plays wither LF or CF. This will most likely be done via a trade of Homer Bailey. The rumored deal of Bailey for Jermaine Dye is apparently dead. I guess that means a trade for Carlos Beltran or signing Manny Ramirez. O wait, only 5 teams have a chance at Ramirez, the same 5 teams that had a chance at Beltran. Glad their is an even playing field out there.

How about that BCS

2008-12-02T18:25:00.004-05:00

Everything is working out. The BCS is imploding and has now pissed off a pretty important school, Texas. If Oklahoma loses, all hell would break loose when Texas, a conference division loser, gets picked over Penn State and USC, both conference winners. There is also a chance that, even if Florida beats Alabama, the computers have the Gators so low, OK and Tex could be 1-2. Wouldn't that be fun. An 8 team playoff would fix all this. If it were seeded strictly based on BCS standing with the higher seed having a home game (which would easily sell out in about 5 minutes) it would look like this:

Penn State at Alabama,
Texas Tech at Oklahoma,
Utah at Texas, and
USC at Florida.

Wow. Only one game TT-OK looks bad because they played 2 weeks ago and it wasn't pretty. But Penn State-Alabama and USC-Florida would be huge and Utah going to Austin would be intriguing. Instead we get USC-UCLA, OK-Mizzu, and BC-VT this weekend. Alabama-Florida is the only intriguing game. One big game rather than 3. College football could be so much better than it already is and the BCS is holding it down. There is no reason for it anymore. None. Protecting the regular season got thrown out when Oklahoma jumps Texas even though Texas won the regular season game. The season is not a playoff because in a playoff, when you beat someone, they are eliminated. They don't vault ahead of you. I hope Florida wins and UT-OK finish first and second. That would piss off the entire SEC as well as the Pac-10 champ USC. Would be fun to watch the BCS squirm to cover that up. It would be the most ridiculous championship game since LSU "won" the title over #1 USC in 2003.

Another weekend road trip

2008-11-21T16:25:00.004-05:00

This weekend I go to the Mecca of College Football, the site of the College Football Hall of Fame, and the campus of the most storied team in the history of College Football, Notre Dame University in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame(-20) has a big game this weekend against the power of the Big East, Syracuse. I mean, I think they are a power. They must be if they have beaten Louisville two years in a row. O wait, they are terrible just like the Cards. Louisville, on the other hand, plays West Virginia(-7). Two years ago, this was the biggest game in the country and the greatest game I have ever attended. Now, it is two disappointing teams coached by two overmatched men struggling to keep the fan base from turning. Utah(-7.5) also has a tough game against BYU. A win puts them in a BCS Bowl. The Apple Cup featuring Washington(-7) and Washington State, combined record of 1-20 should be awesome. The big game of the day is obviously Texas Tech at Oklahoma(-7). I am getting goosebumps just thinking about it. I think it is the closest we will get to a playoff semifinal. The winner will probably win the Big 12 and go to Miami (although Texas may not be too happy about being passed up for Oklahoma after they whipped them last month).

My picks- I will take Syracuse(+20) to cover because it will be cold and Notre Dame has trouble closing out games (See: Navy last week), West Virginia to run it up and try and earn a better bowl. Louisville will quit on their coach in the hopes he will get fired even though he will not. In the Battle of the Mormans I will take Utah to win and clinch the BCS bowl. The Apple Cup will be won by Washington because Willingham will not go winless. In the semifinal game, I will take Texas Tech. It is mostly a sentimental pick because I like Mike Leach, although not as much as this guy, and I want them to whip Florida or Alabama in the championship to shut up the SEC fans. Have a good weekend watching these games. I will be hanging out with this guy:

Recap of the weekend, intro to basketball season

2008-11-18T15:25:00.007-05:00

Well I went to two cold, boring games. Both ended in disappointment. Steve Kragthorpe continued his march toward the unemployment line Friday with a sorry showing against Cincinnati, ending a six game winning streak and handing back the keg of nail. Poor preparation, poor execution, and mental mistakes doomed the Cards. I wonder who is to blame for that?

On Sunday I witnessed an historic event. The Bengals managed to tie for only the second time in franchise history and first time since the 1960's. Hey, at least the Eagles didn't win. Kickoff temperature was 37 degrees so I am glad I got to sit there for the longest game possible in an NFL regular season game. With that, football is over. Congrats to the overrated SEC team of the year (Florida or Alabama) for winning the championship. Onto college basketball.

Louisville will win it all. There I said it. Here is a little video to get everyone pumped.

Only Padgett and Caracter are missing from those highlights. This team will dominate and go something like 33-3. North Carolina will choke because that is what Roy Williams does 99% of the time (2005 he was so loaded with talent even when he tried he couldn't lose). Pittsburgh, Michigan State, and UCLA will join them in Detroit. One team that will not, UK. They were humiliated, again, at home. If Tubby had done this, I don't want to think about what they would have done. Of course, there is one big difference between Tubby and Billy DUI and it can't be changed by better recruiting or winning titles.

I managed to get a video of his meeting this week with his coaches. Slightly NSFW because of racy subtitles.

Weekend Edition

2008-11-14T15:53:00.003-05:00

Not much going on this week in terms of football. The Jets and Farve beat the Cheaters in Foxborough last night. I guess it is not as easy without cheating. No real college games to speak of as most teams have easy games before next week's rivalry games. The only ones of interest are Florida-South Carolina, Georgia-Auburn, and Texas-Kansas. I will take the Ole Ball Coach to keep it close and maybe pull of a stunner. He should have beat the Gators the year they won it all but they were lucky enough to have a defender jump in the exact spot the ball went twice. Totally ridiculous and flukey. A foot from losing and shutting up those insufferable SEC fans. As for the other two games Georgia will beat Tuberville and send him to the unemployment line and Colt will beat the fighting Manginos. Speaking of Mangino, here are the two(1, 2) funniest pictures of the year regarding him.

I will be attending two great games this weekend. Tonight, Louisville (hopefully) continues the Steve Kragthorpe farewell tour tonight against number 22 Cincinnati in the battle for the Keg of Nails, one of the weirdest and most meaningless trophys in college football. Three tough games and then maybe, hopefully the misery will end. I will let these guys take it from here.

Sunday I take a drive to the great city of Cincinnati for the Bengals-Eagles clash. This will be great because I get to participate in Project Mayhem and yell at Philly fans, two of my favorite things. I will have an update on Monday of how the weekend went but suffice it to say there will be drinking, yelling, sulking, and complaining about the coach and organization from both games. Thank god the Reds are the beacon of sports with their great management and on field coach. O wait. This whole site is dedicated to his incompetence. Damn

Finally, RIP FJM.

Not so Hot Stove, BCS mess

2008-11-11T19:06:00.006-05:00

Well the Hot Stove League has begun and the Reds are sifting through the bottom of the pot. (attention FJM: food metaphor) The names mentioned are Garret Atkins, Willy Taveras, and Yorvit Torrealba. None of these players should be considered as they provide little or no upgrade over a replacement player from the minor leagues while adding payroll. I like the idea of the Reds going after a CF who can lead off but one with a .308 OBP is not good enough. While no Corey Patterson numbers, still pretty bad at 55 OPS+. Atkins seems to be another Edwin Encarnacion but a little older and Torrealba is a backup at best. Nice to hear the Reds talked about but none of these players makes sense.

Onto football where the BCS seems to be coming into focus thanks to Penn State's loss and the overhyped SEC. Florida has played well recently, against mediocre competition and everyone thinks they are the best team in the land. This is the same Florida who lost at home to Ole Miss and finished last year losing to Michigan in a bowl game. What have they done to deserve this ranking? Beat UGA, who has no signature win, whipped severly overrated LSU at home? I don't get it. Alabama's big win was at UGA(not looking so good anymore)? vs. Clemson?(no way) at LSU(no real win to speak of). And none of them play anyone out of conference so there is no chance of a good win there. The Big 12 is miles ahead.

Oklahoma lost a close game to Texas while playing a much better out of conference schedule (TCU and Cincy). Texas lost at the last minute on the road to the #2 team. Texas Tech has beaten Texas and Oklahoma St in consecutive weeks. Missouri has only lost to Texas and Oklahoma State while beating Illinois out of conference. I would take UT, TT, and OK over Bama, UF, and UGA. I would also take Mizzu and OK St over LSU and South Carolina. The top 5 of the Big 12 blow away the top 5 of the SEC. In a real playoff the two big 12 teams would play in the title. This year, an SEC team will play a Big 12 in Miami. If Florida is the representative the SEC will once again have a national title home game just like LSU's two championships. The current BCS is a joke and any person who argues for it is either a college president or an SEC fan. Those are the two people who benefit from the system.

This guy really agrees.

Baseball wrap, Weekend Ahead, Red Sox note

2008-10-31T11:51:00.005-04:00

Well the season is over and Philly won the title just as I predicted. That means I was 5 of 7 in my predictions. Not bad overall. I will try and give a preview of the 2009 Reds including what we need (SS, CF, C) and what we don't need (old, slow players who refuse to get on base). Otherwise, the blog will turn to football, both pro and college, as well as basketball, college only until the NBA playoffs, when teams start trying. There will also be some TV, food, and other topics thrown in for fun. Now some quick thoughts on football this weekend.

-UGA-UF will be the highlight of my weekend. Last year's game featured a combined 72 points, 2 Heisman contenders(Tebow and Moreno) and one great celebration. This years game features many of the same players plus an added element thanks to the celebration. Will Tebow and the Gators dance when they score, will Richt pull out another crazy idea, will there be an all out fight. I say yes to all. In the end, UGA's young, pathwork offensive line will falter as it did against Alabama and UF will make one great play on special teams to pull out the win 38-24.

-Texas-Texas Tech will be an interesting matchup. TT will throw the ball all over. Texas will blitz against a line that has allowed fewer than 5 sacks all year. The winner of that battle wins the game. I say TT wins because blitzing fails more than it works. Ask the Giants. you need to be able to get pressure with only 4 in order to succeed. Blitzing against TT will give Harrell one-on-one and he will pick them apart. Any worry I would have if I were Texas is that this is the biggest game in Lubbuck ever. This is the third biggest game for Texas this month. Who do you think will be more focused and ready. I will take TT in a squeaker 41-38. If Texas loses but somehow wins the Big 12 with 1 loss, and the SEC champ has one loss, I can't wait for the insanity of who gets to beat PSU in the title game. It is gonna be awesome.

-quick note regarding the Red Sox sloberfest posted yesterday. Yes, they have home-grown some talent. Yes, they have a large fan base. This is pretty easy to do when your area covers 5 states. The Red Sox own such a big territory that they can get their own TV station and make a ton of money off it. The Reds own half of Ohio, some of KY and some of IN. Their station is FSN Ohio which is only a small step above PBS in terms of quality and coverage. The Sox own MA, VT, NH, ME, most of RI and parts of CT. Their market is bigger thus generating more revenue from their TV station which is available in all of those states as well as on DirectTV. The Reds could never fund their own station and thus will never get the money that Boston does. And my problem with Boston, other than its fans, is how much it spends and how it spends it. They are able to draft players no one else can because they will pay huge bonus money no one else will. If the player flames out, it would hurt a normal team. The Sox just write it off and cut a million dollar check to another player to replace him. They can afford to pay Coco Crisp $5 million for 350 AB's, Julio Lugo $8 for 300 AB's, Jason Veritek $11 for a 73 OPS+, Schilling $8 to blog and piss people off. These would all be in the top 5 salary wise for the Reds and all were part time, no-time, or bad. The Reds mistakenly signed Eric Milton for 9 million and didn't recover for years. The Sox take it as if it were nothing because of their bags of money. If they make a mistake, they can correct it much easier than 26 other teams. That is unfair.

O, and the players you mentioned, only Nomar was home-grown. Manny, Papi, and Pedro were all bought for money that only 6 teams could have paid for. The Reds never had a chance at any of them. That also makes it unfair. Only one team in the last 15 years has won the World Series with a payroll in the bottom half of the league: The 2003 Florida Marlins. That shows how unfair it is. The only solution would be a salary cap. That will never happen because in order for MLB to make money, NY, BOS, LA, and CHI must be good. They can only be good if they can spend millions to fix their millin dollar mistakes. The cycle continues and, at the start of next season, 15 teams will KNOW they can't win a World Series. When do pitchers and cathers report?

Big Deal Palace Up and Running - Red Sox

2008-10-30T11:04:00.004-04:00

Sorry for the long delay, but it took some time to get the new and improved Big Deal Palace up and running. I've finally got the internet and a TV at home, so watch out I may up my production to 2 times a month. I'll try to come back with a few posts in the next week on various topics. Today I'll take on the Red Sox:

While I know my comrade on this blog has been very critical of the Sox "buying" players and points to the Rays success as proving that you can overcome the Big Bad Money Taking Big Market Team by developing talent. While the Rays success illustrates small market teams can compete, it doesn't make the Red Sox model obsolete or even bad. Unless you are a communist (and after this upcoming election we will all likely live in a socialist/communist society like Sweden, but that is a rant for another time and likely violates one of our rules about alienating people), you have to admire the way the Red Sox and Yankees take the revenues from running a successful team and put that money to making the team more successful. Boose's comments would lead one to a "wind fall talent tax" where the teams who generate enough interest to be profitable give some of their players to stupid teams like the Reds who overpay bad people and refuse to pay to keep talented people around (Adam Dunn). If this blog stands for anything (aside from getting dusty baker fired), it stands for capitalism and against socialism.

Boston does have the luxury of making more mistakes since they have an unlimited payroll, but that is because year in and year out they put a product on the field people are willing to pay for. They have found a way to maximize revenues by selling monster seats, pink hats and keeping their old stadium in decent shape. They have consistently paid for top players and even developed some talented players. Since they are willing to keep players around once they become good at baseball rather than sell them for more prospects (who they will get rid of when they get good at baseball), Boston has been able to create cult heroes that fans love (Manny, Nomar, Big Papi & Pedro).

Lets analyze why they have more money and point out the fundamental flaw in small market teams complaint that they just don't have the money to compete (basically assuming that those with money did nothing to deserve it). While metro boston is larger than metro cincy (~4mm vs 2mm), it isn't like Cincy is some sleepy Podunk tiny town. Cincy also doesn't need to support a hockey and basketball team, so it the Reds and Bengals (who don't seem like they will draw many people for years). There is a large enough population to support a baseball team (see 1970s and 80s). The reds stadium (which was paid for by taxpayers and not ownership) has luxury boxes, while Fenway doesn't, so technically is capable of producing more revenue. Cincy is a baseball town and the team was extremely popular in the 1970s when the team was good, so you can't argue Boston has more "history" or a better historical fan base. Cincinnati had the first professional baseball team and also has won a few more championships than Boston, so that excuse doesn't work either. National TV contracts are split, so all those boston-new york games on espn, Cincy sees some of that revenue. Boston has their own tv station (NESN) and is able to get all the revenue from that, but if demand were there Cincy could do the same thing.

So basically we can't hate Boston for "buying" world championships, because they have no built in advantage over Cincy as it relates to generating revenue (same cannot be said for NY, LA or Chicago which are much bigger cities). You can hate Boston for many things (the cold weather, Barney Frank, the fake sox fans who came out of nowhere over the past two years, the slightly overweight women of Cambridge), but hating them for buying championships is just hating success. Instead of saying the sox put a good product on the field, which can win titles every season because they have money, it would be more apt to say The Sox have money because they put a good product on the field and are competitive every game.

The Reds need to take a look at the Sox business model and find a way to put a good team on the field every season, quit rebuilding all the time and let the fans know you plan to make long term commitments to good players, find other ways to generate revenue and learn how to evaluate talent properly. A good start to all of this would be to get rid of Dusty Baker and find a competent manager and GM, who understand that a computer is not scary and it isn't a sin to allow statistical facts about a players ability to color your gut judgement about that players ability.

We have made this the quest of the blog, but i think gotten off track as our team went down and others succeeded. It is time to right the ship and make sure our single focus as it relates to baseball (we will continue to comment on all things non-baseball. Trust me there will be a full season recap of RR/RR Challenge this year as it is amazing) is to educate the good people out there about how to take a once very proud franchise that could dominate an entire decade back to the front of the MLB pack. The first step in that goal is firing Dusty Baker.

Viva La Revolution

Quick Thoughts

2008-10-27T11:41:00.003-04:00

-So the Phillies are going to win the series, just as I predicted. Also, no shame in taking the Bill Belicheat approach to the game. It is only cheating if you get caught. I am sure the dirt that collected all season just happened to be in that one spot. Happens all the time, just ask Kenny Rodgers. There it is folks, the Honorable Phillies, your 2008 World Series Champs, from the Honorable city of Philadelphia. (Yes, this is an attempt to jinx them.)

-Got to love college football this year. Penn State, with their ONE big win will likely play in the title game. Alabama has played ONE good game thus far (at UGA) and will play another in the SEC title game. (The LSU game is mediocre after the Tigers have been exposed against UGA, South Carolina, and UF. What a great SEC defense they have, allowing 125 points in the last 3 games). USC played ONE good game against a non-Pryor lead Ohio State. (At UVA is mediocre now that they may win the ACC) After all that, the decision of who plays Texas is decided by writers and coaches who watch, at best, half the top 25 each week. Sound reasonable. I would hate for those 3 teams, which are practically indistinguishable right now, play in a 4 team playoff with Texas. (Oklahoma is out because you have to at least qualify for your championship game to be considered) Let's let some very biased human beings decide it. This helps preserve the regular season. That great regular season where every week matters. Except the last week because you can lose then and still go to the title game or go undefeated and have no chance at it. (See LSU last season, Nebraska years ago, Oklahoma in 2003, Boise 2 years ago, Aubrun 2004, etc. ) This system is really working.

-So it is down to the Bengals and Lions. Both staring 0-16 and a place in history in the face. Here is the Bengals remaining schedule with my win probability in parenthesis: Jax (5%), BYE (80%), Philly (15%), at Pit (2%), Balt (10%), at Indy (15%), Wash (20%), at Cle (25%), KC (40%). Not looking good.

Here is the Lions schedule: at Chi (15%), Jax (10%), at Car (15%), TB (10%), Ten (5%), Min (15%), at Indy (10%), NO (15%), at GB (10%). Not much better. The only difference I see is Detroit has 6 home games remaining. Cincy has a bye and a finale against a terrible KC team. I'd say it is pretty much 50/50 but, knowing that Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably start for the rest of the year, I will take the Bengals to complete the perfect season.

-I have written before about my love of hamburger helper. The cheesburger macarroni is excellant along with the standards of Lasagna, four-cheese, and beef pasta. But did you know they have Chicken Helper. Cooked the same way only with Chicken. I recommend the Chicken Fried Rice or the Fettuccine Alfredo as a change of pace. Chicken is easier to cook(no draining) and, when mixed with some Frank's Hot Sauce, can be mighty tasty. I should get a Betty Crocker sponsership for this.

World Series Thoughts

2008-10-21T09:13:00.003-04:00

I hate Philly. I know I have said why in the past but now it is because they have ruined my predictions. I successfully picked the winner of the four series' in which the Phillies were not involved including the correct number of games in the ALCS and emergence of David Price. For some reason the Phillies have been my nemesis but it is alright, I have a solution. I am picking them to win the World Series in 7. This will effectively jinx them because the only prediction that I have missed have involved the Phillies and now that I have picked them, they will lose. This is the complete opposite of what I think will actually happen, but it must be done in order to ensure a Rays victory in 5. I sure feel better now. Here are some other thoughts on the Fall Classic:

-Great to see the Red Sox fail to finish the comeback. I am sick of hearing about their comeback against the Yanks in 2004 and the Indians in 2007. When you spend $130 million every year, putting together a 3 or 4 game winning streak is not that impressive. Now their key players are hurting (Papi's wrist, Drew's back, Lowell's everything) and their position players are not developing well. Ellsbury was supposed to be the next Beltran but tanked this season, they need a shortstop and corner outfielder, not to mention replacing Paul Bako 2.0 behind the plate. I am sure they will go out and spend $30 million to fill the holes because they are the new Yankees and money is no object. It would be nice to see them miss the post season next year only to see all their "fans" disappear overnight. If they have any significant injuries during the year to a pitcher or two, I think they will miss the playoffs.(I made a comment earlier this year about the crowds at Fenway being terrible and many writers commented on the fans in games 3 and 4 being lackluster and only their to see and be seen. The lesson here is, I am always right.)

-The Rays are one hell of a team. They are better then the Phillies defensively(by a long shot) and, other then Cole Hamels who is the best pitcher in the Series, their starting pitcher is superier. The Rays are also younger, fearless, and are coming back fairly quickly. The Phillies have had a week off which doesn't work out well against a team coming off a dramatic 7 game victory(See Tigers in 2006 and Rockies in 2007). David Price is going to be a superstar and I think he will be used again to nail down a close game. Another outing like Sunday and he will become a legend in Tampa, until he becomes a free agent and the Red Sox give him $150 million to replace another $30 million pitcher who didn't pan out.

-No more Frank TV ads or reruns or The Steve Harvey Show. No more Buck Martinez. No more TBS. Now we are blessed with Joe Buck(Jim Nantz) and Tim McCarver(Billy Packer). I only wish FOX would get rid of Tim the way CBS dumped Packer. They are both past their prime and discuss the sport as if it is 1978. The game has passed Tim by and he hasn't realized it. His comments about Manny disgracing the game by not running out groundballs was so hypocritical in light of his non mention of Brett Myers and his domestic violence charge. Which do you think disgraced the game more? I will take the wife beater.

-Enjoy the games and the blog will turn to football and other baseball musings after the series. Remember Phillies in 7 (but really Rays in 5).

LCS Predictions

2008-10-09T08:58:00.004-04:00

Well I got 3 of the 4 series right. The one I got wrong just happened to be my world champion. Hey, it's not my fault CC turned into Eric Milton, Prince Fielder turned into Corey Patterson, and Ryan Braun became Paul Bako. Now onto the LCS. I have a good feeling about these.

Phillies - Dodgers

The Phillies looked good in the first round and now have homefield. They also have some pitcher named Christopher Gruler. O wait no. That is who the Reds chose ahead of their real pitcher, Cole Hamels. Hamels should win 2 games in the series but who will win the other? Brett Myers? The same Brett Myers who was so terrible he was sent to AAA earlier this year and is now pitching in the biggest game of his life. I think he may revert back to his pre-minors form. Who else? Joe Blanton? His statistics have been average with a 106 ERA+ but he went to the University of Kentucky. Probably too interested in being mediocre in football and overrated in basketball to concentrate. The 45 year old Jamie Moyer is all that is left. By the way, he was once a teammate of Davy Lopes who was a teammate of Hoyt Wilhelm. Hoyt was born in 1922. It took only one common teammate to go from Jamie Moyer to a man who played at the Polo Grounds for the New York "Baseball" Giants under Leo Derocher. That is old. And his 71 mile an hour fastball won't fool Manny. He will sit back and crush it.

The Dodgers on the other hand have young players who are still fresh but lack experience in big games. Some people think this is bad but I think it can be good. Say your team has been beaten in their last 3 straight playoff series. They have experience but it is of losing and getting tight in big games. If they didn't have that experience, they would probably be better off. These Dodgers don't have those bad experiences(I am looking right at the Angels and Cubs). Manny has some pretty damn good ones. Their pitching is pretty solid with Lowe, Billingsley (taken 10 picks after Ryan Wagner), Clayton Kershaw (chosen one pick ahead of Drew Stubbs,), and whoever else they throw out there. They also have 4 time Cy Young award winner Greg Maddux if needed. Overall, the teams look pretty even.

In the end though, I like Joe Torre over Charlie Manual and Manny Ramirez over anyone else. I'll take the Dodgers in 7. And if you think this is a pick just because I hate Philly fans and want them to be miserable, well, you are right.

Rays - Red Sox

Another one where everyone likes the road team. Most of it is because Boston controls most of the media and can make it say practicly anything. Did you know the Red Sox are the greatest team with the greatest fans ever? I didn't until I heard and read all about it. I thought they finished in second in their division despite spending $90 million more then the first place team. I guess I thought the team that finished first was better.

As for the series, I originally picked the Rays in 7. I am sticking with that but I am not quite as sure. The Red Sox did as I expected and woke up for the playoffs. They have become the San Antonio Spurs of baseball meaning they coast through the regular season then turn it up for the postseason. If Beckett were 100% they would have the advantage. If Manny were still there, they would have an advantage. Without that, the teams are equal so I will take the home team in 7 and yes, it has something to do with my dislike of their "fans."

Tampa has great pitching, a great bullpen, and good hitting. They also have speed so if Boston does what they say and pitch Wakefield (I don't think they will), the Rays will steal all over the place. But who knows. These teams were pretty even in the regular season and should be pretty even in this series. A couple bounces one way or another could change the game. I am rooting for the young, entergetic, worst-to-first, low payroll team. I guess I am somehow hoping this is what the Reds become. Too bad we would need a competent manager.

Post Script: So the Reds could have had Cole Hamels and Chad Billingsly. Instead we drafted two guys who are not in the majors. We also missed Kershaw by one pick for a guy who is 25 and still not in the majors. I sure hope Walt Jocketty knows what he is doing because all the other GM's we have had sure screwed the pooch.

FINALLY OVER!!!

2008-10-07T14:42:00.003-04:00

Break out the champagne! Ring the bells! The long wait is finally over!

No, the Reds have not won anything in over a decade but Walt Jocketty came out and said the most glorious words any Reds fan could hear today: Corey Patterson will NOT be back in 2009. This is cause for celebration. And this time real celebration, not the wake up on the coach, stay drunk for 48 hour, celebration I had last week after passing the bar. I'm gonna party Michael Irvin style.

Playoff Predictions

2008-10-01T11:30:00.006-04:00

Before the playoffs begin let me give you my thoughts:

Cubs-Dodgers

I smell and upset. The Cubs have red flags all over the field. They haven't played a meaningful game all of September thanks to the total tank job of the Brewers. Big Z has also struggled his past two starts and, if you throw out the no hitter which was against a ravaged Houston team worrying about their city and homes disappearing while playing a "home" game in Milwaukee, he hasn't had a quality start since August 14th and that was against the Reds. Ryan Dumpster takes the ball in game one and any long-time Reds fan knows he is not as good as advertised. Call me a skeptic but how does a pitcher have far better numbers then he has ever put up at age 31 in a hitter's ballpark. His WHIP is .300 lower then his career average(that is a big number) and his ERA+ is 152, 32 points higher then his previous best season which was when he was 23 and in his prime. Something doesn't look right. 31 year-olds don't do that naturally-er-normally.

I think LA will steal one in Chicago then win both at home to take the series 3-1. I am mostly picking it because I hate these fans. And they will be coming out of the woodwork this week. Look out.

Brewers-Phillies

CC is a monster. I think he can win two games by himself. No questions asked. Just goes to show you how much of a difference there is in the two leagues. While he was good in the AL, he is untouchable in the NL. That leaves the Brewers only needing one more win. I think Ryan Braun will get one big hit and win that game for them, as long it isn't needed today(Rosh Hashanah) or next Wednesday (Yom Kippur). You probably didn't even know he was Jewish. See, you learn something new every day when you read the blog. So keep doing it. Or else.....

I will take the Brewers in 5. Good series but Ryan Howard can't hit lefties and that will come back to haunt them against CC. But, if Gagne pitches, all bets are off. He is like 3 Corey Pattersons rolled into one.

Red Sox-Angels

One team is the defending world champs and the other hasn't played a meaningful game since before the all-star break. Got to take the Red Sox. As much as I hate them, they have the best team. That is what you get when you spend 9 figures every year for a decade, and not just on their major league team, they fill their minors with best talent money can buy. Good for them and bad for everyone else. They will be loaded for a long time thanks to no cap and a ridiculous international system where any good player will be snatched up by who spends the most, not through the draft. Why isn't there a seperate international draft? O yeah, because baseball wants the big market, rich teams to be good and an international draft would hurt that. The rich keep getting richer thanks to good ole Bud.

Boston in a sweep. The Angels are good but the Red Sox get bored in the regular season. They will turn it on now that they are on the big stage. I just wish Boston fans weren't so obnoxious. I'm not the only one.

White Sox-Rays

Love the Rays. They are what the Reds could be if they could draft and develop talent. Almost all of their team is home-grown or acquired in trades for other home-grown talent with a few, low-level fre agents thrown in. They have been winning all year in the toughest division in baseball. Now they get the White Sox who are in "we are just glad we made it" mode after winning three tough games the last three days. The Rays should handle them easily and, although it would be nice to see Griffey make a run at a championship, I think the Sox don't have enough left.

Rays in a sweep. Pitching is too good and wait until you see David Price. He pitched against Louisville in the AAA playoffs and his stuff is filthy. He is better then Joba was last year but without the New York media machine to tout him.

Those are the first round predictions. Here are the rest quickly but I will provide more once the first round ends and my picks inevitablly fail. Brewers over the Dodgers in 6 thanks to CC showcasing for his future employer, Rays over Red Sox in 7 because of the advantage in the giant pinball machine, and Brewers over Rays to win it all. Why not? The Badgers just choked away their season, Brett Farve is gone, what else do they have in Wisconsin? And anyway, anything is better then listening to insufferable Cubs or Red Sox fans talk about how great their team is even though they couldn't name more then 10 players. Go Brew Crew!

Awards Part II

2008-09-30T17:30:00.003-04:00

Here are some more awards:

Greg Vaughn Award (Best new hitter acquisition) goes to........

Jerry Hairston Jr. I almost confused him with Jerry Hairston Sr. Thank goodness he keeps that Jr. on the end. This is the one Dusty signing that didn't tank. He played well when not injured. Unfortunately, he only managed 80 games and 260 AB's. If he could stay healthy for an entire season, he could be useful. Too bad he hasn't played more then 120 games since 2002 and will be 32 next season. It was a good run for him but he is not the answer for next year's Reds. Having said that Dusty will resign him and Patterson and give them each starting jobs then be totally confused when the Reds only win 60 games.

Danny Jackson Award (Best new pitcher acquisition) goes to.......

Edinson Volquez. Coco was a close second. I know Coco had his ups and downs but it was recently revealed that he had a problem with his foot all year. Add that to his 136 ERA+ and having an anchor in the ninth to open up Weathers and Burton for the 7th and 8th, major trouble spots for last years Reds and Coco comes in a close second. Volquez is the winner. I would trade Josh Hamilton again in a hearbeat. I would give his stats but I have a feeling he will get another award.

Chris Sabo Award (Best rookie hitter) goes to.......

Joey Votto. Could make a good case that he is the Rookie of the Year in the NL. Here are his and Soto's numbers. Guess which one are his.

Player A: .297/.368/.506, 32 2b's, 24 hr's, 84 rbi's, 124 OPS+
Player B: .285/.364/.506, 25 2b's, 23 hr's 86 rbi's, 122 OPS+

Eerily similar. Votto is player A and looking at purely offensive stats, he is better. Soto plays a much tougher position on a team headed to the playoffs so he should win the award. I'm just saying that it is close. I think he isn't going to win because all the voters hate Canadians like Votto. I know I do.

Scott Williamson Award (Best rookie pitcher) goes to.......

Johnny Cueto. He had his ups and downs but at the end of the day, you have to remember that he is 22 years old, started 31 games and won 9 times, threw 174 innings while posting a 94 ERA+, and 158 K's. If he continues to improve, he, Volquez, Harang, and Arroyo could be the more formidable top 4 in the division. Owings, Bailey, and any other pitcher simply need to hold down the 5th spot and the rotation is set.

Johnny Bench Award (Best Hitter) goes to.......

Adam Dunn. I know he only played on the team until August 10th but he put up another monster year with 32 hr's and 74 rbi's in only the 113 games in a Reds uniform. His OPS+ of 130 is tops among regular players and his 197 OPS+ with RISP and 2 outs shows he got it done when it mattered. I love the big donkey, and I miss the big donkey.

Mario Soto Award (Best Pitcher) goes to......

Edinson Volquez. He was electric. His struggles after the all-star break took him out of contention for the Cy Young but he was still a legit all-star who could strike out 10 batters any start. Here are his stats: 24 years old, 32 starts with 17 wins, 196 inning with an ERA+ of 140, and 206 K's. Ridiculous numbers from a kid who is still improving. Another year of work under the tutalige of Mario Soto and he could be one of the top 5 starters in the NL.

Dave Miley Award (Most clueless manager) goes to.......

Dusty Baker. He needs to be fired now and replaced with a competent person. Hell, I will take someone with a pulse at this point. Anyone would know Bako and Patterson can't play baseball. O well, the blog will continue until my dream is realized and someone else is managing my beloved Reds.

Awards for the season part I

2008-09-29T17:32:00.003-04:00

Now that the Reds season is mercifully over and another losing season is in the books let me hand out some awards. I will try to have some positive ones and not give all the bad ones to Dusty but it will be tough after suffering through this 74-88 debacle.

Onto the awards:

Eric Milton Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent pitcher) goes to........

Josh Fogg. He was supposed to be a shrewd signing by former GM Wayne Krivsky. It turned into a disaster. His stats go as follows: 2-7 in 14 starts and 8 relief appearances, 7.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 17 HR's allowed in 78 innings. Batting practice pitchers put up better numbers.

Juan Castro Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent hitter) goes to..........

Corey Patterson. Was there any other choice? 3 million for a 48 OPS+. The only personnel director who thinks this was a good move is Mike Brown. But at least he hasn't been arrested 50 times like Brown's players.

Art Shell Award (worst performance by a coach) goes to.......

Brook Jacoby. This team was known for their good hitting and terrible pitching. Dick Pole somehow fixed the bullpen just in time for Jacoby to stand by while our hitters regress. Griffey nose-dived, EE failed to progress, and, if not for the rookies who were untainted by Jacoby, they would have been the worst line-up in the National League.

Entourage Award (most disappointing season from a formerly good player) goes to.....

Ken Griffey Jr. Aaron Harang would be the easy answer but I blame most of his struggles on Dusty. Griffey never got going and has only been worse since joining Chicago. Not once have I heard his name discussed. We all expected a big season if he stayed healthy. Well he was healthy and failed to produce. His season reminded me of Entourage last season. Everyone expected big things, then every week revolved around one stupid movie. We don't watch Entourage for the acting. The acting is awful. We watch it for the partying and fun side of Hollywood.

Friday Night Lights Award (most under appreciated player) goes to.....

Adam Dunn. The man was an amazing baseball player who loved the game, his teammates, and the city of Cincinnati. That is very hard to find. I wish more people would realize this and appreciate it just as I wish more people would appreciate FNL. The best show in TV is relegated to Directv this fall because ratings were so bad and Directv offered to pay some of the costs. Now all I need is a friend with Directv.

That is all for today. Come back tomorrow for more. (you didn't think I would give you all of them now. I need to increase my hits from 8 to 16.)